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N2K Presidential Race: Florida Turns Its Back on Obama N2K Presidential Race: Florida Turns Its Back on Obama N2K Presidential Race: Florida Turns Its Back on Obama N2K Presidential Race: Fl...

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Homepage / N2K Presidential

N2K Presidential Race: Florida Turns Its Back on Obama

President Obama speaks at the White House.(AP Photo/Carolyn Kaster)

May 23, 2012

This morning’s Quinnipiac University survey of registered Florida voters shows President Obama coughing up major ground, since the same poll in March, to Mitt Romney among women, men, and independents – a pretty fair swath of the electorate.

Overall, Obama trails Romney in Florida, 47 percent to 41 percent.

But “Florida, Florida, Florida” isn’t as essential as it used to be. In fact, of the five paths the Obama campaign deems likeliest to victory – laid out in December with a memorable profanity from campaign manager Jim Messina – only one includes the Sunshine State.

That’s a recognition that Obama’s performance among aging voters is weak. According to the U.S. Census, Florida had the nation’s fifth-highest median age. And Romney’s already won there once this year; recall that it was his crucial and commanding win there that firewalled him against Newt Gingrich’s surge.

Writing off Florida would be, in many ways, liberating, since its pricey media markets and sui generis politics make it a resource-draining state. But the looming loss of a state the president carried four years ago by three points, after Florida had gone for George W. Bush twice straight, poses longer term, ominous concerns for Democrats.

-- Jim O’Sullivan
@JOSullivanNatJo

NATIONAL JOURNAL
’S PRIMARY REPORT

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The New, Nasty Obama Campaign
[The Atlantic, 5/23/12] Cory Booker, in his criticism of Obama's attack on Bain, touched on something unspeakable among Democrats: the idea that the slash-and-burn tactics of Obama's reelection campaign mark a definitive departure from the promise to change politics for the better. 

 

Rubio Slams Life in Polarized Senate  
[National Journal, 5/23/12] Sen. Marco Rubio, R-Fla., had harsh words on Wednesday for the current state of politics, criticizing in particular the very body in which he serves. The Senate, Rubio said, is incapable of passing legislation to solve the nation’s problems.

Romney Addresses Latinos as Campaign Works to Make Grounds with Key Constituency
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Factchecking Crossroads GPS ‘Basketball’ Ad 
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Channeling Reagan, Obama Offers Robust Defense of Foreign Policy
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Know Your Spox: A Look at the Obama Campaign Staff
[Talking Points Memo, 5/23/12] TPM provides a look into the people who speak for the Obama campaign, profiling Ben LaBolt, David Axelrod, Stephanie Cutter,  and Lis Smith. So, now you’ll know a little more about the people flooding the airwaves.

Romney Talks 
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Obama Trails Romney in Florida Poll  
[National Journal, 5/23/12] Romney now leads Obama by 6 percenatge points in the race for Florida's 29 electoral votes, a significant reversal from earlier this spring, according to a new Quinnipiac University poll released early on Wednesday.

Romney Rocks the Independent Vote
[The Hill, 5/23/12] In 12 of the 14 major surveys over the past two months measuring where independents' support in this election lies, Romney has led Obama on an average of 6.5 percent. Romney's lead can be explained by Obama's disapproval numbers among independents.

Romney’s Boldest Education Idea Would Never Become Reality 
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Romney Oil Adviser Also a Big Super PAC Donor 
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Public Sour on Biden
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Despite a Frustrated GOP, Anti-Obama 'Birthers' Still Persist
[CNN, 5/23/12] Why won’t those folks questing the president’s citizenship go away? Peter Hamby explores the lingering concerns that some on the right—including Members of Congress and state parties—have with Obama’s birth certificate, and how this could hurt Romney in November.

Does Portman Have the Edge in VP Sweepstakes?
[Real Clear Politics, 5/23/12] Although Sen. Rob Portman, R-Ohio, offers the standard line that he doesn't expect to be picked as Romney's running mate, the trajectory of his career and his political conduct in Washington have made nearly everyone in politics almost certain that he’ll be plucked for this year's Republican presidential ticket.



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