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N2K Presidential: Is a Social Security Debate on Deck? N2K Presidential: Is a Social Security Debate on Deck?

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N2K Presidential Race Analysis

N2K Presidential: Is a Social Security Debate on Deck?

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(AP Photo/Mike Fuentes/Robert Ray/J Pat Carter/UPI/Kevin Dietsch)

Rep. Paul Ryan’s presence on the Republican presidential ticket with Mitt Romney has sparked a political battle over the future of Medicare and the federal budget. Social Security may be next.

In his two latest budget blueprints, the man many Republicans deem their party’s intellectual leader ignored Social Security. But before that, the Wisconsin lawmaker spearheaded efforts to partially privatize the program by letting people invest some of their money in the stock market.

Republicans and Democrats alike say they expect that past will reemerge in the heat of the presidential campaign.

Until now, both sides have been content to leave Social Security out of the debate. But in what could be a preview of the Obama campaign approach, Vice President Joe Biden promised voters this week in Virginia that there would be “no changes” in Social Security.

That doesn’t square with past reports that President Obama is open to changes, but it does set the stage for attacks on Ryan’s past positions. They won’t necessarily be effective — the GOP presidential ticket has tried to turn Ryan’s controversial Medicare proposals into an asset, for instance, a strategy that could be replicated with Social Security.

But at minimum, it’s an attack that’s proven effective in the past, and the Romney campaign will have to prepare for it. Read more

—Alex Roarty


NATIONAL JOURNAL
’S PRESIDENTIAL RACE REPORT

Analysis: Mitt Romney Seeks To Shift the Tax Return Debate

[Washington Post, 8/16/12] Mitt Romney’s announcement that he has paid at least a 13 percent tax rate in the past 10 years was a tactical maneuver meant to shift the burden of proof on to Democrats, Chris Cillizza writes.

Ryan Denies Seeking Stimulus Money

[National Journal, 8/16/12] Paul Ryan told a Cincinnati television station in an interview airing on Thursday that he “never asked for stimulus” money made available by the Recovery Act, contradicting documents that show he advocated for Wisconsin companies seeking funds.

Poll: Obama Leads Romney in Pennsylvania NEW!
[National Journal, 8/16/12] President Obama holds a slight lead over Mitt Romney in Pennsylvania, according to a poll released on Thursday showing Obama with a significant advantage over his Republican challenger in terms of personal popularity.

 

‘Walmart Moms’ Still Forming Opinions About Ryan NEW!
[National Journal, 8/16/12] For the niche demographic group known as the “Walmart moms,” GOP vice presidential candidate Paul Ryan is still an unknown quantity, according to the latest findings gleaned from two focus groups.

Poll: Obama Holds Slight Wisconsin Lead NEW!
[National Journal, 8/16/12] Wisconsin voters narrowly favor President Obama over Mitt Romney, despite the addition of native son Paul Ryan to the Republican ticket, according to a new CNN/ORC International poll released late on Thursday.

Obama’s Investment Not Yielding New Voters NEW!
[Boston Globe, 8/16/12] Despite pouring resources into scores of voter-registration events in the last week alone, a Boston Globe analysis found that the Obama campaign has failed to significantly swell the rolls of Democratic voters in battleground states

 

Analysis: Debate Over Ryan Budget Won’t Yield Medicare Solution
[National Journal, 8/16/12] Mitt Romney’s selection of Rep. Paul Ryan as his running-mate seems likely to simultaneously raise Americans’ awareness of Washington’s long-term budget challenge and show why the current debate can’t produce a sustainable solution, as National Journal’s Ron Brownstein writes.

Poll: Obama Gets Low Marks on the Economy

[National Journal, 8/16/12] In a potentially ominous election sign for President Obama, a Gallup Poll released on Thursday found that 60 percent of those surveyed disapprove of his handling of the economy, with just 36 percent approving.

Ryan: China Treating Obama Like a ‘Doormat’

[National Journal, 8/16/12] In his first foray into foreign policy in a campaign speech, Ryan on Thursday accused Obama of failing to stop China’s economic cheating. Romney frequently breaks out this line, which is popular with blue-collar workers who have seen their jobs shipped overseas.

Jindal, Portman Tapped as Convention Speakers
[National Journal, 8/16/12] The Republican National Committee has announced six more speakers for the party’s national convention in Tampa this summer, and the roster includes several former Romney veep prospects: Sen. Kelly Ayotte of New Hampshire, Louisiana Gov. Bobby Jindal, and Ohio's Sen. Rob Portman, among others.

Can Voter-ID Laws Affect the Outcome of an Election?
[Philadelphia Inquirer, 8/16/12] As many as 11 percent of eligible voters in 10 states with the toughest voter-ID laws don’t have the required photo or government-issued IDs. Of those states, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin have the real potential to be competitive between Romney and Obama.

Mission Impossible: Managing Joe Biden

[Politico, 8/16/12] As evidenced by Biden’s most recent gaffe on the campaign trail, the vice president’s press staff sometimes has a difficult time managing his coverage. But Politico's Jonathan Martin reports his staff has a history of trying to edit pool reports and cut off interviews.

Playing Political Chicken

[National Journal, 8/16/12] The country is more divided than ever – ideologically, politically, culturally, and even over chicken sandwiches. Consumer researchers have found a strong correlation between our spending, eating, and drinking habits and our political actions: In 2008, Obama carried 81 percent of counties that have a Whole Foods outpost, but just 36 percent of counties with a Cracker Barrel.

Ryan’s Immigration Shift Leaves Both Sides Uncomfortable

[The Hill, 8/16/12] Ryan has a long history of backing bills granting some illegal immigrants legal status, but he also has a record of supporting tougher enforcement measures, and he recently vowed to oppose any “amnesty” proposals. With immigration certain to play a role on the campaign trail, advocates on both sides of the legalization debate are combing Ryan’s immigration record.

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