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Thursday, April 13, 2006

By Donald P. Green and Alan S. Gerber ISBN 0815732686 Brookings Institution Press 128 pp. Purchase This Book

As the midterms approach, campaign consultants at all levels may find it useful to revisit 2004's "Get Out the Vote! How to Increase Voter Turnout," by Yale political science professors Donald P. Green and Alan S. Gerber. They aim to apply scientific research methodology to the study of GOTV campaign practices -- including door-to-door canvassing, leafleting, direct mail, phone banks, and e-mail -- and to dispense advice on how best to employ each of these tactics.

Despite the authors' academic pedigree, their language is simple and their suggestions practical. The following sentence offers a hint of the book's down-to-earth style and content:

"In principle, poor weather presents a good opportunity for canvassing, since more people can be found at home, but the success of the operation hinges on whether canvassers have umbrellas and plastic sheets to protect their walk lists."

Such details might seem tedious to experienced campaign hands, but Green and Gerber are not interested in preaching to the insiders' choir.

In fact, they express suspicion of voter mobilization studies by professionals that they say rely on anecdotal rather than scientific evidence, and thus "misrepresent (innocently in many cases) correlation as causation." The Yale duo also argue that high-profile consultants tend to overemphasize the importance of mass media, which for most local campaigns is not an option. Most campaigns, they believe, are won at the grass-roots level.

According to Green and Gerber, the "central finding" of their years of research is: "A personal approach to mobilizing voters is generally more effective than an impersonal approach." This assertion is not likely to set the world on fire, but it is important to remember that this is a work of social science. Research studies in various fields often begin with common-sense hypotheses and subject them to scientific testing. This book's sober premises and conclusions are precisely its strength; the fact that the book is not selling anything is one of its strongest selling points.

In applying their methodology to a variety of GOTV efforts in national and local campaigns between 1998 and 2002, the authors arrive at surprisingly precise conclusions about the efficacy of various tactics. For instance, they don't merely assert that canvassing is a more efficient means of eliciting votes than direct mail; they monetize the assertion. Canvassing, they claim, produces results at a rate of about $19 per vote; direct mail costs about $59 per vote (at best).

Yet for all this apparent mathematical certitude, the book has a rather provisional quality. Each of the authors' conclusions is starred, from 1 to 3, like a film review, based on how well-substantiated each one is. Their candor is commendable, but at some points the reader may be left wishing for definitive conclusions rather than preliminary ones.

In particular, it will be interesting to see whether Green and Gerber retest their hypotheses this cycle, when current conventional wisdom says Democrats are more motivated than Republicans. In recent elections, GOP operatives have proven adept at conducting personalized grass-roots GOTV efforts -- precisely the sort of campaigns that Green and Gerber prefer. But can even the most scrupulously designed grass-roots efforts inspire what may now be a dispirited Republican base? Is the cost-per-vote now greater for Republican campaigns and less for Democrats?

Whether or not one agrees with their math, Green and Gerber have provided a valuable resource for grass-roots campaigns across the spectrum. Democratic operatives hoping to capitalize on a potential anti-incumbent wave, and Republican operatives hoping to counter it, may want to take a look. --Deron Lee, NationalJournal.com

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