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Studying Iraq
Public Weighs In On ISG Recommendations; Plus: Race, Religion & The White House

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By Erin McPike and Irene Tsikitas, NationalJournal.com
© National Journal Group Inc.
Monday, Dec. 11, 2006

President Bush did not exactly welcome the Iraq Study Group's recommendations with open arms, but the American public seems to have greeted the report [PDF] much more enthusiastically.

A new poll released by Newsweek magazine shows 39 percent of respondents agree with the group's prescriptions for changing U.S. efforts there. While just 20 percent disagree with the ideas, 26 percent said they're not aware of them, and 15 percent "don't know."

Bush is particularly divergent with respondents on whether the United States should set a timetable for withdrawing military forces from the war-torn Middle Eastern country -- something he has adamantly opposed. Even anti-war Democratic legislators have spoken publicly about their opposition to a timetable, but 62 percent of Newsweek's respondents said they want the country to establish one.

Specifically, a 48-percent plurality said most of the United States' military personnel in Iraq should either be brought home now or within a year, and another 19 percent said they'd support keeping U.S. troops there for just a year or two more. Twenty-three percent said those in the effort should stay "as long as it takes to achieve U.S. goals in Iraq."

But most respondents have grown increasingly pessimistic about the U.S. campaign. Just 21 percent said they believe the United States is making progress toward its goal of promoting democracy and security there; 68 percent said it's losing ground. And a 44-percent plurality told FOX News/Opinion Dynamics pollsters recently that they don't think the ISG's report will make any sort of impact; 23 percent said they think the report will make a difference for the better.

As for the proposals made in it, the most popular among Newsweek's respondents was a threat by the United States to "reduce economic and military support to the Iraqi government if it fails to meet specific benchmarks" at 65 percent. Fifty-seven percent supported the suggestion that the United States should "reach out to Iran and Syria for help" in ending the conflict. Respondents were evenly split on the idea that the United States should "increase economic and military support for Afghanistan as reductions are made in Iraq."

Despite the strong opposition to holding steady in Iraq, respondents to the FOX poll didn't reveal confidence in Iraqi forces to make the situation much better. Should U.S. troops leave Iraq, 47 percent said they think violence there will increase, and 38 percent said that it will probably remain as is. And half said that if there is a withdrawal, Iraq is less likely to stabilize with a central government.

Embracing The 2008 Rainbow
In addition to being one of the most wide open in recent history, the 2008 presidential race is shaping up to be one of the most diverse, as the top tier of potential players already includes a woman, an African American and a Mormon. But rather than celebrating the diversity as a sign U.S. politics is becoming more inclusive, the emerging landscape has some wondering whether Americans are "too racist" or "too sexist" to elect a President Barack Obama or Hillary Rodham Clinton.

FOX/Opinion Dynamics pollsters took those questions to the people, though not in so many words.

Clinton and Obama, junior senators from New York and Illinois, respectively, took the top two spots in a hypothetical matchup of potential Democratic primary candidates, suggesting that Democratic primary voters do not necessarily have any qualms about sending a woman or a black man to the White House. With support from a third of Democratic respondents and a 22-point lead in a one-on-one matchup with Obama, Clinton remains the front-runner in the Democratic field.

Still, Obama appears to be weakening her lead and sapping support from other candidates as speculation mounts that he will run. Support for Clinton has fallen 11 points since June 2005, and fourth- and fifth-place contenders John Edwards and John Kerry have seen their rankings fall 5 points and 11 points, respectively.

And as for whether Americans are sexist or racist: Significant majorities of FOX respondents told pollsters that neither a woman candidate's gender (64 percent) nor a black candidate's race (74 percent) would have an impact on their vote. Party breakdowns show Democrats are more likely to admit that their votes could be positively swayed by a candidate's gender or race, with 31 percent saying they'd be more likely to vote for a woman and 25 percent saying they'd be more likely to vote for a black candidate for president. Only 10 percent of Republicans answered likewise, and 18 percent said they would be less inclined to support a female candidate.

But such open-mindedness does not seem to extend to religion. While more than 60 percent of respondents told pollsters that religion would not play a factor in their decision to support a Protestant, Catholic or Jewish candidate for president, 54 percent said the same of a Mormon candidate. Nearly one-third said Mormonism could be a disqualifying factor for a presidential candidate.

Mitt Romney, the outgoing Republican Massachusetts governor and a Mormon, came in fourth place in FOX's GOP primary matchup with 8 percent, one point behind former House Speaker Newt Gingrich. (By contrast, former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani won 30 percent and Arizona Sen. John McCain received 23 percent.) But that may not necessarily be due to Romney's faith. When respondents were asked to specifically consider Romney's Mormonism, a total of 67 percent of respondents said his religion would not affect their votes.

The Public Pulse -- Latest Opinions At A Glance
The table below offers the latest key national numbers. Click on the number in question for poll details. (Last updated April 2)
Congressional Job Approval
Bush Job Approval Rating
Economy Positive Rating State Of The Nation
20%
Job approval
rating.

28%
Job approval
rating.

19%
Give the economy a positive rating.
20%
Say country is going in right direction.

The above icons represent (left to right) Congress, President Bush, the economy and the direction of the country.

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