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Thursday, January 19, 2006
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Today's National Polls
Today's polls are compiled by NationalJournal.com staff
and gathered in conjunction with The Hotline.
Questions and polling press releases should be directed
to polls@nationaljournal.com.
Please click here for links to other recently released national polls.
DIAGEO/HOTLINE
President Bush, WH 2008, Party Politics
Conducted 1/12-15/06; surveyed 806 registered voters; margin of error +/-3.4% (release, 1/19). A response of * indicates less than 0.5 percent.
I'd like to get your opinion about the way that things are going in the country today. Do you feel things in this country are generally going in the right direction, or do you think things are seriously off on the wrong track?
All Dem Ind Rep
Right direction 33% 15% 21% 59%
Wrong track 54 75 62 29
Neither (vol.) 8 7 10 6
Don't know/Refused 6 3 7 6
And what is the most important issue facing the U.S. today? (open-ended)
All Dem Ind Rep
Economy in general 14% 12% 13% 14%
Unemployment/jobs 5 8 2 3
High cost of living/
Inflation 2 2 1 1
Taxes 1 1 2 1
Social Security 2 2 1 2
Avian flu * 0 1 0
Frivolous lawsuits * 0 0 *
Moral values 2 1 2 4
Gay marriage * 1 0 0
Rebuilding New
Orleans/Hurricane Katrina 1 0 1 1
Middle class struggling * * 1 0
Outsourcing of jobs/
Jobs sent overseas 1 0 1 *
Unfair trade
practices/agreements * 0 0 1
Military base
closings * 0 0 *
War in Iraq - Support 10 8 9 12
War in Iraq - Oppose 15 22 17 8
Wage issues * * 0 1
Agricultural/Farming 0 0 0 0
Corporate corruption 1 * 2 0
Fuel/Oil prices 3 2 5 3
Terrorism 8 4 7 14
Fear of war/Feelings
of fear in this country 2 2 2 2
Poor healthcare/
Hospitals/High cost
of health care 3 3 4 3
Ethics/Moral/
Religious/Family
decline/Dishonesty/
Lack of integrity 3 2 4 3
Education/Poor education/
Access to education 4 3 3 4
International issues/
problems 1 2 1 1
Dissatisfaction with
government/Congress/
Politicians/Candidates 2 4 1 1
Crime/Violence 1 1 1 1
Poverty/Hunger/
Homelessness 1 1 0 1
Drugs general * * 1 0
Medicare issues 3 4 3 1
Immigration/Illegal aliens 2 2 1 3
Environment/Pollution * * 0 0
Abortion - Pro-choice * 0 0 0
Abortion - Pro-life * 0 0 1
Guns/Gun control * * 0 0
School shootings/
School violence 0 0 0 0
Other (open-ended) 11 8 12 11
Don't know/Refused 2 2 2 2
George W. Bush. (If favorable or unfavorable) Would you say you have a strongly favorable/unfavorable opinion or a somewhat favorable/unfavorable opinion?
All Dem Ind Rep
Strongly favorable 25% 6% 17% 54%
Somewhat favorable 22 14 20 32
Somewhat unfavorable 13 15 19 6
Strongly unfavorable 36 62 37 7
Heard of but can't
rate (vol.) 2 2 2 1
Haven't heard of * 0 2 0
Don't know/Refused 2 1 3 1
Tom DeLay. (If favorable or unfavorable) Would you say you have a strongly favorable/unfavorable opinion or a somewhat favorable/unfavorable opinion?
All Dem Ind Rep
Strongly favorable 3% 1% 2% 6%
Somewhat favorable 12 7 10 18
Somewhat unfavorable 17 17 17 18
Strongly unfavorable 30 44 32 16
Heard of but can't
rate (vol.) 13 7 17 14
Haven't heard of 19 20 17 18
Don't know/Refused 7 5 4 10
Hillary Clinton. (If favorable or unfavorable) Would you say you have a strongly favorable/unfavorable opinion or a somewhat favorable/unfavorable opinion?
All Dem Ind Rep
Strongly favorable 20% 38% 18% 4%
Somewhat favorable 28 37 31 18
Somewhat unfavorable 17 13 12 21
Strongly unfavorable 27 6 28 50
Heard of but can't
rate (vol.) 5 4 7 5
Haven't heard of 1 * 3 *
Don't know/Refused 2 1 1 1
John McCain. (If favorable or unfavorable) Would you say you have a strongly favorable/unfavorable opinion or a somewhat favorable/unfavorable opinion?
All Dem Ind Rep
Strongly favorable 21% 19% 22% 21%
Somewhat favorable 38 35 42 42
Somewhat unfavorable 12 14 10 13
Strongly unfavorable 6 6 5 6
Heard of but can't
rate (vol.) 10 10 9 9
Haven't heard of 8 10 9 5
Don't know/Refused 5 4 3 4
Jack Abramoff. (If favorable or unfavorable) Would you say you have a strongly favorable/unfavorable opinion or a somewhat favorable/unfavorable opinion?
All Dem Ind Rep
Strongly favorable 1% * 0 2%
Somewhat favorable 3 2 2 4
Somewhat unfavorable 7 7 8 7
Strongly unfavorable 26 31 33 20
Heard of but can't
rate (vol.) 10 9 15 9
Haven't heard of 43 42 35 45
Don't know/Refused 10 9 6 12
Do you approve or disapprove of the way George W. Bush is handling his job as president? Do you approve/disapprove strongly or somewhat?
All Dem Ind Rep
Strongly approve 23% 6% 13% 47%
Somewhat approve 23 9 23 37
Somewhat disapprove 16 19 21 9
Strongly disapprove 37 64 41 5
Don't know/Refused 2 2 1 2
Do you approve or disapprove of the way George W. Bush is handling the situation in Iraq? Do you approve/disapprove strongly or somewhat?
All Dem Ind Rep
Strongly approve 21% 6% 12% 43%
Somewhat approve 22 10 21 37
Somewhat disapprove 13 13 19 9
Strongly disapprove 41 69 45 9
Don't know/Refused 3 2 3 3
Do you approve or disapprove of the way George W. Bush is handling the nation's economy? Do you approve/disapprove strongly or somewhat?
All Dem Ind Rep
Strongly approve 17% 5% 10% 35%
Somewhat approve 27 16 22 45
Somewhat disapprove 15 19 19 9
Strongly disapprove 35 56 43 8
Don't know/Refused 6 4 6 4
Why do you disapprove of the job George W. Bush is doing as president?
All Dem Ind Rep
His economic,
tax policies 26% 27% 25% 27%
Gas prices 23 21 21 41
His handling of
Hurricane Katrina 21 21 20 29
His conduct of the
war on terrorism 21 22 18 22
His handling of the
Iraq War 38 43 27 35
Ethical issues 19 20 20 13
His federal court
judge nominations 12 13 6 17
His authorization of
wiretapping 20 20 20 18
All of the above (vol.) 37 40 33 31
None of the above (vol.) 1 * 1 0
Other (vol.) 6 5 7 5
Don't know/Refused 2 1 4 5
And do you approve or disapprove of the way Congress is handling its job? Do you approve/disapprove strongly or somewhat?
All Dem Ind Rep
Strongly approve 4% 3% 2% 6%
Somewhat approve 27 26 24 33
Somewhat disapprove 31 33 30 33
Strongly disapprove 28 30 33 22
Don't know/Refused 10 7 11 7
And, in your opinion, do you think the country would be better off if the Republicans controlled Congress or if the Democrats controlled Congress?
All Dem Ind Rep
Republicans 35% 6% 21% 76%
Democrats 37 75 36 4
Neither (vol.) 18 12 28 12
Don't know/Refused 11 7 15 8
And, thinking about next election for U.S. Congress, if the election for U.S. Congress were held today, would you be voting for the Democratic candidate or the Republican candidate in your district where you live?
All Dem Ind Rep
Republican candidate 33% 4% 17% 80%
Democratic candidate 40 79 37 5
Neither (vol.) 7 3 10 6
Don't know/Refused 20 15 37 10
Thinking about the next election for U.S. Congress, do you think you will vote to re-elect your member of Congress, will you consider voting for someone else, or do you think you will vote to replace your current member of Congress?
All Dem Ind Rep
Re-elect current member 31% 37% 24% 34%
Consider someone else 21 13 26 26
Replace current member 25 27 25 19
Don't know/Refused 23 23 25 20
Now thinking about the next election for president, if the election for U.S. president were held today, would you be voting for the Democratic candidate or the Republican candidate?
All Dem Ind Rep
Republican candidate 30% 4% 13% 71%
Democratic candidate 37 76 30 4
Neither (vol.) 8 3 16 5
Don't know/Refused 26 17 41 21
Now I'm going to read you words that people sometimes use to describe political parties. For each word, I want you to tell me which party -- the Republican Party or the Democratic Party -- think the word describes best. (rotated)
Honest:
All Dem Ind Rep
Republican Party 17% 4% 10% 41%
Democratic Party 15 31 12 1
Both parties equally 27 24 34 24
Neither of them (vol.) 35 37 41 28
Don't know/Refused 5 4 3 7
Ethical:
All Dem Ind Rep
Republican Party 24% 5% 20% 48%
Democratic Party 23 45 16 5
Both parties equally 29 30 33 29
Neither of them (vol.) 18 16 24 13
Don't know/Refused 7 4 7 5
Corrupt:
All Dem Ind Rep
Republican Party 22% 44% 19% 5%
Democratic Party 13 1 8 31
Both parties equally 54 46 69 51
Neither of them (vol.) 5 5 1 8
Don't know/Refused 5 5 3 5
Immoral:
All Dem Ind Rep
Republican Party 22% 39% 20% 6%
Democratic Party 22 10 8 44
Both parties equally 34 33 52 28
Neither of them (vol.) 13 12 10 14
Don't know/Refused 9 7 10 7
Please tell me which party -- the Republican Party or the Democratic Party -- currently has the majority in each house of Congress. If you don't know, please tell me and we'll move on. (rotated)
The U.S. Senate:
All Dem Ind Rep
Republican Party 61% 63% 63% 65%
Democratic Party 7 10 3 5
Neither of them (vol.) 1 1 1 2
Don't know/Refused 30 26 33 29
The U.S. House of Representatives:
All Dem Ind Rep
Republican Party 58% 62% 58% 59%
Democratic Party 7 9 6 6
Neither of them (vol.) 2 1 1 2
Don't know/Refused 33 28 34 34
Do you think the State of the Union today is stronger, weaker or about the same as it was a year ago, in January 2005? Would you say it is much stronger/weaker or somewhat stronger/weaker?
All Dem Ind Rep
Much stronger 6% 3% 7% 9%
Somewhat stronger 18 8 21 27
Somewhat weaker 25 33 22 16
Much weaker 14 22 16 5
About the same 33 30 31 38
Don't know/Refused 5 3 2 5
Which of the following do you think should be the top priority for Congress: fighting the war in Iraq or rebuilding the areas hit by Hurricane Katrina? (If "both") If you absolutely had to choose one to be the top priority, which would it be?
All Dem Ind Rep
Fight in Iraq 30% 22% 20% 43%
Rebuild Katrina areas 52 67 58 33
Both (vol.) 13 8 13 18
Neither (vol.) 2 2 3 1
Don't know/Refused 4 2 6 5
Now, suppose the general election for president in 2008 were being held today between Republican John McCain and Democrat Hillary Clinton, for whom would you vote (rotated)? (If "undecided" or "refused") Which way would you lean as of today?
All Dem Ind Rep
McCain 47% 18% 51% 77%
Lean McCain 5 3 6 5
Clinton 32 61 27 7
Lean Clinton 4 5 5 *
Undecided (vol.) 11 11 10 10
Refused to answer 1 1 * 2
Suppose the general election for president in 2008 were being held today between Republican John McCain and a Democratic candidate, for whom would you vote (rotated)? (If "undecided" or "refused") Which way would you lean as of today?
All Dem Ind Rep
McCain 31% 11% 24% 62%
Lean McCain 5 4 6 6
Democrat 26 55 17 4
Lean Democrat 3 4 2 3
Undecided (vol.) 31 25 41 23
Refused to answer 5 2 10 4
Suppose the general election for president in 2008 were being held today between Democrat Hillary Clinton and a Republican candidate, for whom would you vote (rotated)? (If "undecided" or "refused") Which way would you lean as of today?
All Dem Ind Rep
Clinton 36% 65% 36% 11%
Lean Clinton 5 7 1 1
Republican 35 6 30 68
Lean Republican 4 1 6 6
Undecided (vol.) 18 20 21 13
Refused to answer 3 1 6 1
If given a choice, which of the following groups of people do you think a member of Congress would be most likely to put first? (If "all") If you absolutely had to choose one, which would it be?
All Dem Ind Rep
Donors 13% 9% 22% 14%
Lobbyists 18 20 18 16
Voters/Constituents 12 14 9 14
Special interests 21 21 15 25
Political party leaders 14 16 17 11
All of the above (vol.) 4 4 5 3
None of the above (vol.) 2 1 2 3
Don't know/Refused 15 14 12 14
If given a choice, which of the following groups of people do you think your member of Congress would be most likely to put first? (If "all") If you absolutely had to choose one, which would it be?
All Dem Ind Rep
Donors 9% 8% 10% 8%
Lobbyists 8 10 9 7
Voters/Constituents 26 29 15 32
Special interests 17 18 25 11
Political party leaders 16 11 17 22
All of the above (vol.) 2 2 1 2
None of the above (vol.) 2 3 3 1
Don't know/Refused 19 19 20 17
Generally speaking, please tell me how many of each of the following kinds of public officials you think are corrupt? Would you say: almost all of them, many, only a few or none?
Local elected officials, such as mayor
or city council:
All Dem Ind Rep
Almost all 9% 10% 12% 3%
Many 16 14 13 21
Only a few 61 62 56 63
None 10 9 15 10
Don't know/Refused 5 4 4 4
State elected officials, such as governor or
attorney general:
All Dem Ind Rep
Almost all 9% 9% 10% 7%
Many 18 16 19 17
Only a few 62 63 62 63
None 5 6 4 5
Don't know/Refused 7 6 6 7
Appointed government officials, such as cabinet
members or members of federal agencies:
All Dem Ind Rep
Almost all 8% 6% 13% 6%
Many 26 33 27 20
Only a few 55 51 44 67
None 4 4 9 2
Don't know/Refused 7 6 8 6
Federal elected officials, such as members of
Congress or senators:
All Dem Ind Rep
Almost all 11% 15% 13% 5%
Many 35 37 36 31
Only a few 48 43 44 58
None 1 1 0 1
Don't know/Refused 6 4 6 5
Thinking specifically about members of the U.S. Congress, do you think that corruption and illegal activities are more of a problem among Democrats, more of a problem among Republicans, or equally a problem among members of Congress from both parties? (rotated)
All Dem Ind Rep
Democrats 6% 3% 4% 12%
Republicans 17 32 18 3
Both parties 72 62 72 79
Not a problem for either
party (vol.) 1 1 1 2
Don't know/Refused 4 2 5 4
Which of the following best describes why you think certain members of the U.S. Congress are corrupt?
All Dem Ind Rep
Most start out as corrupt
before they come to
Washington 27% 30% 29% 23%
Most become corrupted
once they come to
Washington 55 56 52 61
Neither (vol.) 3 2 4 3
Both (vol.) 6 5 6 4
Don't know/Refused 9 8 9 9
As you may know, Jack Abramoff recently pleaded guilty to fraud, tax evasion and conspiracy to bribe public officials in a deal that requires him to provide evidence about members of Congress. Once the investigation is complete, how likely do you think it is that each of the following will be found to have been involved in illegal activities?
Your member of Congress:
All Dem Ind Rep
Very likely 17% 24% 13% 13%
Somewhat likely 32 27 32 34
Not very likely 23 21 21 26
Not at all likely 13 16 14 12
Don't know/Refused 15 12 20 14
Republican members of Congress:
All Dem Ind Rep
Very likely 29 44 29 13
Somewhat likely 42 33 49 48
Not very likely 10 7 7 19
Not at all likely 3 3 1 4
Don't know/Refused 16 13 14 17
Democratic members of Congress:
All Dem Ind Rep
Very likely 14% 13% 15% 16%
Somewhat likely 49 42 52 54
Not very likely 16 23 11 10
Not at all likely 5 7 7 3
Don't know/Refused 16 15 15 17
From what you've heard about Jack Abramoff, is he connected most closely to the Republican Party, the Democratic Party or don't you associate him with a particularly political party?
All Dem Ind Rep
Republican Party 30% 44% 35% 17%
Democratic Party 2 2 1 4
Don't associate with party 37 29 38 47
Other party (vol.) 2 2 1 2
Don't know/Refused 29 24 24 31
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