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2006 CAMPAIGN POLLING Florida Governor
Latest Poll: Mason-Dixon (10/16-17/06)
Previous Polling
Related Resources
Bendixen and Associates (D)
General election matchup:
All Dem Rep Ind
Crist/Kottkamp 45% 18% 71% 45%
Davis/Jones 39 65 14 37
Other/Undecided 16 17 15 18
Florida Insider Advantage/Majority Opinion Research Democratic primary matchup: Smith 18% Davis 15 Undecided/Other/Don't know 67
Mason-Dixon
General election matchup:
Crist 50%
Davis 39
Other/Undecided 11
Favorability ratings:
Fav/Unfav
Crist 51%/21%
Davis 36 /22
A Mason-Dixon poll; conducted 9/20-22/06 for the Orlando Sentinel and WESH-TV; surveyed 625 registered voters; margin of error +/- 4% (release, 9/27). Tested: Attorney General Charlie Crist (R) and Rep. Jim Davis (D).
General election matchup:
Crist 51% 24% 82% 47%
Davis 36 65 5 37
Other/Undecided 13 11 13 16
Favorability ratings:
Fav/Unfav
Crist 54%/13%
Davis 27 /13
A Mason-Dixon poll; conducted 3/21-23/06 for various media outlets; surveyed 625 registered voters; margin of error +/- 4% (release, 3/28). GOP subsample: 400 GOP primary voters; margin of error +/- 4.7%. Dem subsample: 400 Dem primary voters; margin of error +/- 4.7%. Republicans tested: state Attorney General Charlie Crist and state Chief Financial Officer Tom Gallagher. Democrats tested: Rep. Jim Davis and state Sen. Rod Smith.
Republican primary matchup:
Crist 43%
Gallagher 27
Undecided/Other 30
Democratic primary matchup:
Davis 28%
Maddox 9
Undecided/Other 64
General election matchups:
All Dem GOP Ind
Crist 46% 23% 71% 43%
Davis 30 54 6 27
Undecided/Other 24 23 23 30
All Dem GOP Ind
Gallagher 42% 20% 66% 39%
Davis 32 58 7 28
Undecided/Other 26 22 27 33
All Dem GOP Ind
Crist 47% 25% 72% 41%
Smith 24 45 2 23
Undecided/Other 29 30 26 36
All Dem GOP Ind
Gallagher 43% 23% 65% 40%
Smith 24 42 5 23
Undecided/Other 33 25 30 37
Favorability ratings:
--All-- --Dem-- --GOP--
Fav/Unfav Fav/Unfav Fav/Unfav
Crist 42%/10% 47%/ 9%
Gallagher 34 /11 40 /10
Davis 16 / 7 22%/ 4%
Smith 9/ 3 10 / 3
Republican primary matchup: Crist 41% Gallagher 23 Jennings 7 Undecided/Other 29 Democratic primary matchup: Davis 23% Maddox 12 Smith 4 Undecided/Other 61 General election matchups: Crist 41% Davis 28 Undecided/Other 31 Gallagher 38% Davis 29 Undecided/Other 33
Bush job as governor:
Excellent/Good 54%
Only fair 23
Poor 23
Bush job on issues:
Approve
Economy/Jobs 50
Budget/Taxes 50
Education 52%
Environment/Growth
management 42
Health care 38
Bush handling of Schiavo case:
Approve 41%
Disapprove 41
A Mason-Dixon poll, conducted 7/29-31/03 for various media clients; surveyed 625 likely voters; margin of error +/- 4% (Orlando Sentinel, 8/5). Tested: Gov. Jeb Bush (R). Bush job as governor: Excellent 20% Good 34 Fair 23 Poor 23
McLaughlin and Associates (R) Primary election matchup: Crist 42% Gallagher 23
A McLaughlin and Associates (R) poll; conducted 12/14-19/05 "for a major business client of lobbyist J.M. 'Mac' Stipanovich, a Crist supporter;" surveyed 800 likely Republican primary voters; margin of error +/- 3.5% (St. Petersburg Times, 12/20). Tested: state Attorney General Charlie Crist and CFO Tom Gallagher. Republican primary matchup: Crist 38% Gallagher 19 Undecided/Other 44Miami Herald/St. Petersburg Times Conducted 12/1-3/03 by Schroth & Associates (D) and the polling company (R), surveyed 800 registered voters; margin of error +/- 4% (release, 12/5). Tested: Gov. Jeb Bush (R).
Bush job as governor:
All Dem GOP Ind
Approve 52% 27% 80% 46%
Disapprove 41 63 16 44
Direction of the state:
All Dem GOP Ind
Right direction 53% 39% 69% 50%
Wrong track 39 55 22 40
Conducted 5/6-8/03, by Schroth & Associates (D) and the polling company (R), surveyed 600 registered voters; margin of error +/- 4% (Palm Beach Post, 5/12). Tested: Gov. Jeb Bush (R).
Bush job as governor:
All Dem GOP Ind Wht Blk His
Approve 56% 32% 81% 50% 58% 26% 74%
Disapprove 39 65 15 34 37 69 16
Don't know/No answer 5 3 4 15 4 4 10
In your area of Florida, do you think things here in
Florida are on track and are moving in the right
direction, or do you think that things have gotten
off track and are now moving in the wrong direction?
All Dem GOP Ind Wht Blk His
Right direction 47% 30% 62% 47% 49% 24% 54%
Wrong track 46 64 28 48 45 70 25
Don't know/No answer 7 6 10 6 6 6 21
Quinnipiac UniversityA Quinnipiac University poll; conducted 7/19-24/06; surveyed 1,541 registered voters; margin of error +/- 2.5% (release, 7/26). Tested: Attorney General Charlie Crist (R), Rep. Jim Davis (D), CFO Tom Gallagher (R) and State Sen. Rod Smith (D).
Republican primary election matchup:
Crist 47%
Gallagher 29
Other/Undecided 24
Democratic primary election matchup:
Davis 39%
Smith 15
Other/Undecided 46
General election matchups:
All Dem Rep Ind
Crist 44% 17% 84% 38%
Davis 38 71 4 30
Other/Undecided 18 12 12 32
All Dem Rep Ind
Davis 41% 75% 7% 33%
Gallagher 39 11 79 36
Other/Undecided 20 14 14 31
All Dem Rep Ind
Crist 45% 17% 84% 42%
Smith 36 68 5 27
Other/Undecided 19 15 11 31
All Dem Rep Ind
Gallagher 39% 13% 80% 31%
Smith 38 71 4 32
Other/Undecided 23 16 16 37
Favorability ratings:
Fav/Unfav
Crist 36%/11%
Gallagher 26 /14
Davis 9 / 4
Smith 7 / 4
A Quinnipiac University poll; conducted 5/15-22/06; surveyed 1,086 registered voters; margin of error +/- 3% (release, 5/24). Tested: Attorney General Charlie Crist (R), Rep. Jim Davis (D), CFO Tom Gallagher (R), State Sen. Rod Smith (D).
General election matchups:
Davis 40%
Crist 37
Undecided 23
Davis 40%
Gallagher 37
Undecided 23
Crist 39%
Smith 37
Undecided 24
Gallagher 39%
Smith 35
Undecided 26
Favorability ratings:
Fav/Unfav
Crist 34%/ 9%
Gallagher 28 / 9
Davis 9 / 3
Smith 6 / 1
A Quinnipiac poll; conducted 2/15-20/06; surveyed 1,079 registered voters; margin of error +/- 3% (release, 2/22). Tested: Attorney General Charlie Crist (R), Rep. Jim Davis (D), CFO Tom Gallagher (R) and state Sen. Rod Smith (D).
General election matchups:
All Rep Dem Ind
Crist 40% 77% 8% 35%
Davis 36 5 72 31
Undecided/Other 25 18 21 35
All Rep Dem Ind
Gallagher 37% 72% 9% 32%
Davis 36 7 71 31
Undecided/Other 27 20 21 37
All Rep Dem Ind
Crist 42% 78% 10% 38%
Smith 32 6 66 23
Undecided/Other 26 17 23 39
All Rep Dem Ind
Gallagher 38% 73% 11% 33%
Smith 34 6 67 29
Undecided/Other 29 21 22 39
Democratic primary matchup:
Davis 29%
Smith 13
Undecided/Other 57
Republican primary matchup:
Crist 40%
Gallagher 31
Undecided/Other 30
Favorability ratings:
Fav/Unfav DK
Crist 31%/ 8% 47%
Gallagher 27 / 9 49
Davis 11 / 3 77
Smith 7 / 4 82
A Quinnipiac poll; conducted 11/8-13/05; surveyed 855 registered voters; margin of error +/- 3.4% (release, 11/15). Tested: Attorney General Charlie Crist (R), Rep. Jim Davis (D), state CFO Tom Gallagher (R) and state Sen. Rod Smith (D).
General election matchups:
All Rep Dem Ind
Davis 40% 10% 73% 32%
Crist 39 73 14 33
Undecided/Other 21 17 12 35
All Rep Dem Ind
Davis 41% 8% 74% 37%
Gallagher 38 73 13 32
Undecided/Other 21 19 14 32
All Rep Dem Ind
Crist 41% 73% 17% 37%
Smith 36 9 65 27
Undecided/Other 23 19 17 36
All Rep Dem Ind
Gallagher 41% 75% 16% 38%
Smith 36 7 67 29
Undecided/Other 23 19 17 33
Democratic primary matchup:
Davis 25%
Smith 15
Undecided/Other 60
Republican primary matchup:
Gallagher 38%
Crist 36
Undecided/Other 25
A Quinnipiac poll; conducted 8/23-29/05; surveyed 1,187 registered voters; margin of error +/- 2.8% (release, 8/31). Democratic subsample: 379 registered Democrats; margin of error +/- 5%. Republican subsample: 430 Republicans; margin of error +/- 4.7%. Democrats tested: Rep. Jim Davis, Florida Democratic Chair Scott Maddox and state Sen. Rod Smith. Republicans tested: Attorney General Charlie Crist and state CFO Tom Gallgher.
Democratic primary matchup:
Dem All
Davis 19% 18%
Maddox 16 12
Smith 11 9
Undecided/Other 55 61
Republican primary matchup:
GOP All
Gallagher 39% 33%
Crist 36 31
Undecided/Other 25 37
Democratic primary matchup:
Dem All
Davis 24% 20%
Maddox 16 11
Smith 7 8
Undecided/Other 52 61
Republican primary matchup:
GOP All
Crist 43% 32%
Gallagher 31 33
Undecided/Other 26 35
Democratic primary election matchups:
All Dem
Castor 30% 36%
Chiles 25 29
Davis 8 10
Maddox 4 5
Smith 4 5
Campbell 3 2
Undecided/Other 26 12
GOP primary election matchups:
All GOP
Crist 30% 35%
Gallagher 27 32
Jennings 14 16
Undecided/Other 30 17
A Quinnipiac poll; conducted 2/18-22/05; surveyed 1,007 registered voters; margin of error +/- 3.1% (release, 2/24). Tested: Gov. Jeb Bush (R).
Do you approve or disapprove of the way Jeb Bush is
handling the state budget?
All GOP Dem Ind Men Wom
Approve 45% 78% 23% 36% 53% 39%
Disapprove 42 13 65 48 36 48
Bush job approval:
All GOP Dem Ind Men Wom
Approve 52% 87% 25% 46% 58% 47%
Disapprove 39 9 64 42 34 44
Are things better since Bush became governor?
All GOP Dem Ind Men Wom
Better 31% 63% 11% 19% 33% 29%
Worse 26 5 43 31 23 29
Same 37 28 41 41 39 35
How much progress has Bush made in __?
Env Econ Tax Jobs Edu
A lot 12% 17% 10% 13% 10%
Some 40 45 31 41 37
Not much 22 21 30 25 26
Not at all 18 14 21 16 21
Would you like Jeb Bush to run for WH '08?
All GOP Dem Ind Men Wom
Yes 25% 48% 9% 19% 27% 24%
No 67 42 86 72 65 68
A Quinnipiac University poll; conducted 11/30-12/5/04; surveyed 1,197 adults; margin of error +/- 2.8% (release, 12/7). Tested: Gov. Jeb Bush (R).
Bush job approval:
All GOP Dem Ind Men Wom
Approve 55% 89% 27% 55% 59% 52%
Disapprove 34 8 61 32 29 38
A Quinnipiac University poll; conducted 6/23-27/04; surveyed 1,209 registered voters; margin of error +/- 2.8% (release, 6/29). Tested: Gov. Jeb Bush (R).
Do you approve or disapprove of the way Jeb Bush is
handling his job as governor?
All GOP Dem Ind Men Wom
Approve 47% 78% 21% 48% 54% 41%
Disapprove 42 12 70 36 36 46
DK/NA 12 10 9 16 10 13
Research 2000A Research 2000 Florida Poll; conducted 9/18-20/06 for the Ft. Lauderdale Sun-Sentinel and the Florida Times-Union; surveyed 600 likely voters; margin of error +/- 4% (release, 9/24). Tested: Attorney General Charlie Crist (R) and running mate Jeff Kottkamp (R) and Rep. Jim Davis (D) and running mate Daryl Jones (D).
General election matchups:
Crist 49%
Davis 43
Other/Undecided 8
Favorability ratings:
Fav/Unfav
Crist 46%/18%
Davis 31 /10
Jones 15 / 7
Kottkamp 13 / 8
A Research 2000 poll; conducted 2/24-25/04 for the Fort Lauderdale Sun-Sentinel and the Florida Union-Times; surveyed 600 likely voters in Florida; margin of error +/- 4% (release, 3/1). Tested: Gov. Jeb Bush (R). Bush job approval rating: Excellent 11% Good 40 Fair 32 Poor 10
A Research 2000 poll; conducted 6/7-11/03 for the Fort Lauderdale Sun-Sentinel; surveyed 600 likely voters in Florida; margin of error +/- 4%. (release, 6/20). Tested: Gov. Jeb Bush (R). Bush job approval rating: Excellent 14% Good 40 Fair 29 Poor 9Schroth, Eldon and Associates (D) A Schroth, Eldon and Associates (D) poll; conducted 8/6-9/06 for the St. Petersburg Times; surveyed 800 registered voters; margin of error +/- 3.5% (release, 8/12). Tested: Attorney General Charlie Crist (R), Rep. Jim Davis (D), CFO Tom Gallagher (R) and State Sen. Rod Smith (D). Democratic primary election matchup: Davis 35% Smith 21 Other/Undecided 44 Republican primary election matchup: Crist 50% Gallagher 26 Other/Undecided 24Strategic Vision (R) A Strategic Vision (R) poll; conducted 9/22-24/06; surveyed 1,200 likely voters; margin of error +/- 3% (release, 9/27). Tested: Attorney General Charlie Crist (R), Rep. Jim Davis (D). and activist Max Linn (Ref).
General election matchup:
Crist 50%
Davis 40
Linn 2
Other/Undecided 8
Favorability ratings:
Fav/Unfav
Crist 52%/38%
Davis 41 /23
A Strategic Vision (R) poll; conducted 7/21-23/06; surveyed 1,200 likely voters; margin of error +/- 3% (release, 7/26). Tested: Attorney General Charlie Crist (R), Rep. Jim Davis (D), CFO Tom Gallagher (R) and State Sen. Rod Smith (D). Republican primary election matchups: Crist 57% Gallagher 29 Other/Undecided 14 Democratic primary election matchups: Davis 40% Smith 35 Other/Undecided 25 General election matchups: Crist 49% Davis 39 Other/Undecided 12 Crist 49% Smith 41 Other/Undecided 10 Gallagher 40% Davis 39 Other/Undecided 21 Gallagher 40% Smith 40 Other/Undecided 20
A Strategic Vision (R) poll; conducted 5/19-21/06; surveyed 1,200 likely voters; margin of error +/- 3% (release, 5/25). Tested: Attorney General Charlie Crist (R), Rep. Jim Davis (D), CFO Tom Gallagher (R) and State Sen. Rod Smith (R). General election matchups: Crist 48% Davis 40 Other/Undecided 12 Crist 49% Smith 37 Other/Undecided 14 Gallagher 43% Davis 42 Other/Undecided 15 Gallagher 42% Smith 38 Other/Undecided 20 Republican primary matchup: Crist 48% Gallagher 35 Other/Undecided 17 Democratic primary matchup: Davis 42% Smith 27 Other/Undecided 31 Crist approval ratings: Approve 55% Disapprove 36 Gallagher approval ratings: Approve 50% Disapprove 39
A Strategic Vision (R) poll; conducted 3/24-26/06; surveyed 1,200 likely voters; margin of error +/- 3% (release, 3/30). Tested: Attorney General Charlie Crist (R), Rep. Jim Davis (D), Florida CFO Tom Gallagher (R) and state Sen. Rod Smith (D). Republican primary matchup: Crist 48% Gallagher 36 Undecided/Other 16 Democratic primary matchup: Davis 41% Smith 19 Undecided/Other 40 General election matchups: Crist 47% Davis 38 Undecided/Other 15 Gallagher 46% Davis 39 Undecided/Other 15 Crist 49% Smith 35 Undecided/Other 16 Gallagher 45% Smith 33 Undecided/Other 22
A Strategic Vision (R) poll; conducted 11/25-28/05; surveyed 1,200 likely voters; margin of error +/- 3% (release, 11/30). Tested: Attorney General Charlie Crist (R), Rep. Jim Davis (D), CFO Tom Gallagher (R) and state Sen. Rod Smith (D).
Republican primary matchup:
Crist 47%
Gallagher 40
Undecided/Other 13
Democratic primary matchup:
Davis 34%
Smith 19
Undecided/Other 47
Are you satisfied with the candidates?
Rep Dem
Satisfied 63% 35%
Prefer another 13 55
General election matchups:
Crist 45%
Davis 38
Undecided/Other 17
Gallagher 48%
Davis 37
Undecided/Other 15
Crist 46%
Smith 34
Undecided/Other 20
Gallagher 47%
Smith 35
Undecided/Other 18
A Strategic Vision (R) poll; conducted 9/16-20/05; surveyed 1,200 likely voters; margin of error +/- 3% (release, 9/22). Tested: Attorney General Charlie Crist (R), Rep. Jim Davis (D), state CFO Tom Gallagher (R), former Florida Democratic Chairman Scott Maddox (D) and state Sen. Rod Smith (D).
Republican primary matchup:
Crist 48%
Gallagher 38
Undecided/Other 14
Democratic primary matchup:
Davis 26%
Smith 15
Maddox 12
Undecided/Other 47
Are you satisfied with the candidates?
Rep Dem
Satisfied 65% 32%
Prefer another 13 58
General election matchups:
Crist 48%
Davis 33
Undecided/Other 19
Gallagher 47%
Davis 35
Undecided/Other 18
Crist 50%
Maddox 28
Undecided/Other 22
Gallagher 51%
Maddox 27
Undecided/Other 22
Crist 49%
Smith 31
Undecided/Other 20
Gallagher 48%
Smith 29
Undecided/Other 23
Crist as attorney general:
Approve 56%
Disapprove 29
Gallagher as CFO:
Approve 58%
Disapprove 27
A Strategic Vision (R) poll; conducted 8/17-21/05; urveyed 1,200 likely voters; margin of error +/- 3% (release, 8/23). Democrats tested: Rep. Jim Davis, Democratic Chairman Scott Maddox and state Sen. Rod Smith. Republicans tested: Attorney General Charlie Crist and state CFO Tom Gallagher.
Republican primary matchup:
Crist 47%
Gallagher 35
Undecided/Other 18
Democratic primary matchup:
Davis 27%
Smith 13
Maddox 10
Undecided/Other 50
Are you satisfied with the candidates?
GOP Dem
Satisfied 63% 39%
Prefer another 14 55
General election matchups:
Crist 48%
Davis 35
Undecided/Other 17
Gallagher 47%
Davis 33
Undecided/Other 20
Crist 49%
Maddox 26
Undecided/Other 25
Gallagher 48%
Maddox 25
Undecided/Other 27
Crist 49%
Smith 29
Undecided/Other 22
Gallagher 48%
Smith 26
Undecided/Other 26
Crist as attorney general:
Approve 55%
Disapprove 31
Gallagher as chief financial officer:
Approve 56%
Disapprove 30
A Strategic Vision (R) poll; conducted 7/16-20/05; surveyed 1,200 registered voters; margin of error +/- 3% (release, 7/22). Democrats tested: Rep. Jim Davis, Democratic Chairman Scott Maddox and state Sen. Rod Smith. Republicans tested: Attorney General Charlie Crist, state CFO Tom Gallagher and Lt. Gov. Toni Jennings. Republican primary matchup: Crist 45% Gallagher 34 Jennings 8 Undecided/Other 13 Democratic primary matchup: Davis 26% Smith 15 Maddox 11 Undecided/Other 48 Republican primary matchup without Jennings: Crist 47% Gallagher 36 Undecided/Other 17 General election matchups: Crist 48% Davis 34 Undecided/Other 18 Gallagher 45% Davis 33 Undecided/Other 22 Crist 48% Maddox 29 Undecided/Other 23 Gallagher 48% Maddox 27 Undecided/Other 25 Crist 49% Smith 30 Undecided/Other 21 Gallagher 48% Smith 28 Undecided/Other 24 Jennings 39 Davis 32 Undecided/Other 29 Jennings 39% Smith 29 Undecided/Other 32 Jennings 38% Maddox 25 Undecided/Other 37 Jennings as lieutenant governor: Approve 50% Disapprove 20 Crist as attorney general: Approve 55% Disapprove 34 Gallagher as chief financial officer: Approve 56% Disapprove 32
GOP primary matchups: Crist 37% Gallagher 34 Jennings 12 Undecided/Other 17 Democratic primary matchups: Davis 23% Maddox 20 Smith 14 Undecided/Other 43 Two-way GOP primary matchup: Crist 40% Gallagher 38 Undecided/other 22 General election matchups: Crist 46% Davis 32 Undecided/Other 22 Gallagher 47% Davis 30 Undecided/Other 23 Jennings 38% Davis 27 Undecided/Other 35 Crist 47% Maddox 34 Undecided/Other 19 Gallagher 48% Maddox 32 Undecided/Other 20 Jennings 38% Maddox 30 Undecided/Other 32 Crist 46% Smith 28 Undecided/Other 26 Gallagher 48% Smith 26 Undecided/Other 26 Jennings 39% Smith 27 Undecided/Others 34 Bush as governor: Approve 55% Disapprove 38 Jennings as lieutenant governor: Approve 50% Disapprove 22 Crist as attorney general: Approve 55% Disapprove 36 Gallagher as chief financial officer: Approve 55% Disapprove 32Zogby International A Zogby International poll; conducted 9/26-28/06 for the Miami Herald; surveyed 803 likely voters; margin of error +/- 3.5% (release, 10/1). Tested: Attorney General Charlie Crist (R), Rep. Jim Davis (D) and retiree Max Linn (Ref).
General election matchup:
Crist 51%
Davis 30
Linn 2
Other/Undecided 17
Favorability ratings:
Fav/Unfav
Crist 67 /20
Davis 47 /17
A Zogby International poll; conducted 7/31-8/3/06 for the Miami Herald; surveyed 1,007 registered voters; margin of error +/- 4.5% (Hotline sources, 8/7). Tested: Attorney General Charlie Crist (R), Rep. Jim Davis (D), CFO Tom Gallagher (R) and state Sen. Rod Smith (D).
Republican primary election matchup:
Crist 41%
Gallagher 21
Democratic primary election matchup:
Davis 21%
Smith 16%
Fav/Unfav
Crist 37%/ 4%
Gallagher 23 / 6
Fav/Unfav
Davis 12%/ 3%
Smith 10 / 2
Voter Consumer Research (R)A Voter Consumer Research (R) poll; conducted 4/6-12/04; surveyed 326 likely voters; margin of error +/- 5.7% (Jacksonville Florida Times-Union, 4/21). Tested: state Attorney General Charlie Crist (R) and businessman Tom Gallagher (R). Republican primary matchup: Crist 45% Gallagher 29
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