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2004 CAMPAIGN POLLING North Carolina Senate
Latest Poll:
Mason-Dixon (10/25-26/04)
Previous Polling
Related Resources
American Viewpoint (R) General election matchup: Burr 47% Bowles 45 Undecided 8
Bennett, Petts and Blumenthal (D) General election matchup: Bowles 47% Burr 38 Undecided 14
Elon University
Fav/unfav ratings:
Fav/Unfav Neutral ID
Bowles 18%/ 14% 53% 87%
Burr 9 / 4 32 46
In choosing a Senate candidate, how important is
the candidate's:
Plans for creating jobs in North Carolina:
Very important 74%
Somewhat important 15
Not too important 6
Not important 2
Stance on strengthening the military:
Very important 49%
Somewhat important 29
Not too important 13
Not important 5
Stance on privatizing Social Security:
Very important 48%
Somewhat important 25
Not too important 13
Not important 7
Stance on abortion:
Very important 39%
Somewhat important 23
Not too important 17
Not important 13
Stance on free trade:
Very important 33%
Somewhat important 33
Not too important 22
Not important 5
Stance on school vouchers:
Very important 32%
Somewhat important 22
Not too important 26
Not important 13
Plan for a federal buyout for tobacco farmers and
others who hold quotas for growing tobacco:
Very important 21%
Somewhat important 22
Not too important 25
Not important 22
An Elon University poll, conducted 4/28-5/1/03, surveyed 551 adults; margin of error +/- 4.2% (release, 5/2/03). Tested: Sen. John Edwards (D). Edwards job approval: Strong approve 7% Approve 38 Neither 24 Disapprove 15 Strong disapprove 6 Don't know 8 No response 1 Senator John Edwards recently announced plans to seek the Democratic nomination for president in 2004. Do you support or oppose Senator Edwards' seeking the Democratic presidential nomination in 2004? Strongly support 7% Support 30 Neither 18 Oppose 28 Strongly oppose 8 Don't know 5 No response 2 It appears that John Edwards could run for both the presidency and the Senate at the same time. Which of the following statements comes closest to your preference? John Edwards should... Run for both 12% President only 18 Senate only 37 Neither office 19 Don't know 8 No response 3
An Elon University poll, conducted 3/10-13/03, surveyed 713 adults; margin of error +/- 3.7% (release, 3/14/03). Tested: Sen. John Edwards (D), former state Rep. Dan Blue (D), former White House Chief of Staff Erskine Bowles (D), Rep. Richard Burr (R), Rep. Bob Etheridge (D) and attorney Jim Snyder (R).
Fav/unfav ratings:
Fav/Unfav ID
Edwards 37%/ 26% 81%
Blue 29 / 15 37
Bowles 29 / 21 87
Etheridge 26 / 7 54
Burr 28 / 7 36
Snyder 14 / 12 21
An Elon University poll, conducted 2/18-20/03, surveyed 517 adults; margin of error +/- 4.4% (release, 2/21/03). Tested: Sen. John Edwards (D). Edwards job approval: Approve 39% Disapprove 22 Neither 28 Which do you agree with? In 2004, Edwards should... Run only for Senate 35% Run only for prez 18 Run for both 13 Seek neither office 19
An Elon University poll, conducted 9/16-19/02, surveyed 719 adults; margin of error +/- 3.7% (release, 9/20/02). Tested: Sen. John Edwards (D). Edwards job approval: Approve 44% Disapprove 20 Neutral 22 DK 12
An Elon University poll, conducted 4/15-18/02, surveyed 648 adults; margin of error +/- 3.9% (release, 4/19/02). Tested: Sen. John Edwards (D).
Edwards job approval: Strongly approve 10% Approve 34 Disapprove 10 Strongly disapprove 5 Although he has not announced his intentions, Edwards is being spoken of as a candidate for the Democratic nomination for White House 2004. Do you support Edwards seeking the Democratic nomination for president in 2004? Strongly support 5% Support 32 Neither 17 Oppose 24 Strongly oppose 7
An Elon University poll, conducted 2/11-14/02, surveyed 594 adults; margin of error +/- 4% (release, 2/15/02). Tested: Sen. John Edwards (D)
Edwards job approval: Strongly approve 11% Approve 42 Disapprove 12 Strongly disapprove 5
Fairbank, Maslin, Maullin & Associates (D)
General election matchup: Bowles 44% Burr 37 Bailey 3 Undecided 16
Garin-Hart-Yang (D)
General election matchup:
Initial W/Leans
Bowles 35% 43%
Burr 25 35
Neither/Other 3
Undecided 19
Global Strategy Group (D)A Global Strategy Group (D) poll; conducted 10/19-21/04 for the DSCC; surveyed 600 likely voters; margin of error +/-4% (release, 10/22). Tested: '02 nominee/ former White House Chief of Staff Erskine Bowles (D) and Rep. Richard Burr (R). General election matchup: Bowles 46% Burr 44 Undecided 10
Market Research Insight
General election matchup:
Bowles 42%
Burr 31
Undecided 28
Generic Senate ballot:
Democrat 41%
Republican 34
Mason-Dixon
General election matchup:
Bowles 46%
Burr 46
Undecided 8
Favorable ratings:
Fav/Unfav
Bowles 40%/ 37%
Burr 37 / 35
A Mason-Dixon poll; conducted 10/18-19/04 for the Asheville Citizen-Times; surveyed 625 likely voters; margin of error +/-4% (Citizen-Times, 10/21). Tested: '02 nominee/former White House Chief of Staff Erskine Bowles (D) and Rep. Richard Burr (R-05).
General election matchup:
Now Dem GOP Ind Men Wom Wht Blk
Bowles 45% 72% 9% 42% 43% 47% 38% 78%
Burr 45 18 82 45 48 42 53 8
Undecided 10 10 9 13 9 11 9 14
Favorable ratings:
Fav/Unfav
Bowles 36%/ 35%
Burr 37 / 32
A Mason-Dixon poll; conducted 9/26-28/04 for the Asheville Citizen-Times, surveyed 625 likely voters; margin of error +/- 4% (Asheville Citizen-Times, 9/30). Tested: 2002 nominee/former White House Chief of Staff Erskine Bowles (D) and Rep. Richard Burr (R).
General election matchup:
Bowles 45%
Burr 44
Undec/Other 11
Fav/Unfav
Bowles 37%/ 28%
Burr 34 / 21
A Mason-Dixon poll; conducted 7/12-13/04; surveyed 625 likely voters; margin of error +/- 4% (AP, 7/17). Tested: 2002 nominee/former White House Chief of Staff Erskine Bowles (D) and Rep. Richard Burr (R).
General election matchup:
All Dem GOP Ind Men Wom Wht Blk
Bowles 48% 71% 12% 50% 43% 53% 42% 74%
Burr 38 16 72 34 41 35 46 5
Undecided 14 13 11 16 16 12 12 21
Fav/Unfav ratings:
Fav/Unfav
Bowles 41%/19%
Burr 20 /13
A Mason-Dixon poll, conducted 5/14-17/04 for the Winston-Salem Journal, surveyed 625 registered voters; margin of error +/- 4% (DSCC, 5/20). Tested: 2002 nominee/former White House Chief of Staff Erskine Bowles (D) and Rep. Richard Burr (R).
General election matchup: Bowles 45% Burr 35 Undecided 20
A Mason-Dixon poll, conducted 10/11-14/02 for the Winston-Salem Journal, surveyed 625 likely North Carolina voters; margin of error +/- 4% (release, 10/17/02). Tested: Sen. John Edwards (D), and Reps. Richard Burr (R), Walter Jones (R) and Sue Myrick (R).
General election matchups:
All Men Wom Dem GOP Ind
Edwards 43% 40% 46% 66% 11% 39%
Myrick 33 36 30 18 56 32
Undec. 24 24 24 16 33 29
Edwards 45% 41% 49% 69% 12% 37%
Jones 32 36 28 19 51 29
Undec. 23 23 23 12 37 34
Edwards 45% 41% 49% 67% 14% 40%
Burr 30 34 26 13 54 27
Undec. 25 25 25 20 32 32
Fav/unfav ratings:
Fav/Unfav ID
Edwards 49%/ 27% 94%
Myrick 22 / 9 58
Jones 16 / 5 44
Burr 13 / 6 40
Edwards re-elect:
All Men Wom Dem GOP Ind
Re-elect Edwards 43% 40% 46% 66% 12% 39%
Consider replacing 16 15 17 15 16 23
Replace Edwards 35 42 28 15 64 34
Not sure 6 3 9 4 8 5
A Mason-Dixon poll, conducted 9/12-14/02 for various media including the Winston-Salem Journal and the North Carolina Insider, surveyed 625 likely voters; margin of error +/- 4% (release, 9/18/02). Tested: Sen. John Edwards (D). Edwards job rating: Excellent 16% Good 40 Fair 24 Poor 13
Public Opinion Strategies (R)
General Election Matchup
Bowles 45%
Burr 44
Undecided/Other 10
Fav/unfav ratings:
Fav/Unfav
Bowles 38%/ 34%
Burr 36 / 16
Research 2000A Research 2000 poll; conducted 10/24-26/04 for Raleigh News & Observer; surveyed 600 likely voters; margin of error +/-4% (release, 10/28). Tested: 2002 nominee Erskine Bowles (D) and Rep. Richard Burr (R)
General election matchup:
All Dem GOP Ind Men Wom Wht Blk
Burr 47% 13% 88% 51% 53% 41% 55% 5%
Bowles 46 82 3 45 42 50 39 81
Undecided 7 5 9 4 5 9 6 14
Favorable ratings:
Fav/Unfav
Burr 48%/ 41%
Bowles 47 / 43
A Research 2000 poll; conducted 9/20-22/04 for Raleigh News & Observer; surveyed 600 likely voters; margin of error +/-4% (release, 9/27). Tested: '02 nominee Erskine Bowles (D) and Rep. Richard Burr (R)
General election matchup:
All Dem GOP Ind Men Wom Wht Blk
Bowles 49% 83% 4% 48% 46% 52% 42% 82%
Burr 40 7 81 45 44 36 48 3
Undecided 11 10 15 7 10 12 10 15
Fav/unfav ratings:
Fav/Unfav
Bowles 51%/ 38%
Burr 47 / 40
A Research 2000 poll; conducted 8/8-11/04 for the Raleigh News & Observer, WRAL-TV and WUNC-Radio; surveyed 600 likely voters; margin of error +/- 4.9% (Raleigh News & Observer, 8/14). Tested: 2002 nominee/former White House Chief of Staff Erskine Bowles (D) and Rep. Richard Burr (R).
General election matchup:
All Men Wom Dem GOP Ind
Bowles 47% 44% 50% 80% 4% 45%
Burr 38 42 34 6 79 42
Undec. 15 14 16 14 17 13
Favorable ratings:
Fav/Unfav
Bowles 48%/ 34%
Burr 44 / 37
A Research 2000 poll; conducted 7/10-14/04 for the Raleigh News & Observer, WRAL-TV and WUNC-Radio; surveyed 600 likely voters; margin of error +/- 4% (release, 7/22). Tested: 2002 nominee/former White House Chief of Staff Erskine Bowles (D) and Rep. Richard Burr (R).
General election matchup:
All Dem GOP Ind Men Wom Wht Blk
Bowles 46% 81% 4% 45% 43% 49% 39% 83%
Burr 37 5 77 38 41 33 46 *
Undecided 17 14 19 17 16 18 15 17
Fav/Unfav
Bowles 47%/ 42%
Burr 32 / 33
A Research 2000 poll; conducted 6/13-15/04 for the Raleigh News and Observer/WRAL-TV/WUNC Radio; surveyed 600 likely voters; margin of error +/- 4% (release, 6/23). Tested: 2002 nominee Erskine Bowles (D) and Rep. Richard Burr (R).
General election matchup
All Dem GOP Ind Men Wom
Bowles 47% 85% 6% 50% 43% 51%
Burr 39 4 78 35 44 34
Undecided 14 11 16 15 13 15
Fav/Unfav
Bowles 48%/ 30%
Burr 42 / 31
A Research 2000 poll; conducted 1/5-8/04 for the Raleigh News and Observer; surveyed 600 likely voters; margin of error +/- 4% (release, 1/13). Tested: 2002 nominee Erskine Bowles (D) and Rep. Richard Burr (R).
General election matchup:
All Men Wom Wht Blk Dem GOP Ind
Bowles 45% 41% 49% 39% 85% 83% 5% 47%
Burr 40 45 35 47 * 4 77 39
Undecided 15 14 16 14 15 13 18 14
Fav/Unfav
Bowles 45%/ 25%
Burr 41 / 27
A Research 2000 poll; conducted 11/10-13/03 for the Raleigh News and Observer; surveyed 600 likely voters; margin of error +/- 4% (release, 11/19). Tested: 2002 nominee Erskine Bowles (D) and Rep. Richard Burr (R).
General election matchup:
All Men Wom Wht Blk Dem GOP Ind
Bowles 43% 40% 46% 38% 82% 81% 4% 44%
Burr 40 45 35 46 1 6 76 38
Undecided 17 15 19 16 17 13 20 18
Fav/Unfav
Bowles 38%/ 23%
Burr 40 / 25
A Research 2000 poll; conducted 9/9-12/03 for the Raleigh News and Observer; surveyed 600 likely voters; margin of error +/- 4% (release, 9/16). Tested: former state House Speaker Dan Blue (D), 2002 nominee Erskine Bowles (D) and Rep. Richard Burr (R).
Democratic primary matchup (asked of Dems only):
All Men Wom
Bowles 31% 30% 32%
Blue 17 19 15
Undecided 52 51 53
General election matchups:
All Men Wom Wht Blk Dem GOP Ind
Burr 43% 47% 39% 49% 2% 10% 78% 41%
Bowles 37 34 40 32 80 76 3 32
Undecided 20 19 21 19 18 14 19 27
All Men Wom Wht Blk Dem GOP Ind
Burr 45% 49% 41% 51% 2% 11% 81% 43%
Blue 33 30 36 28 78 71 2 26
Undecided 22 21 23 21 20 18 17 31
Democratic ratings (asked of Dems only):
Fav/Unfav
Bowles 39%/ 16%
Blue 22 / 10
General election ratings:
Fav/Unfav
Burr 42%/ 22%
Bowles 34 / 25
Blue 29 / 17
A Research 2000 poll; conducted 7/13-16/03 for the Raleigh News and Observer; surveyed 600 likely voters; margin of error +/- 4% (release, 7/21). Tested: Sen. John Edwards (D) and Rep. Richard Burr (R).
How would you rate the performance of John Edwards
as U.S. senator -- excellent, pretty good, only fair
or poor?
Excellent 5%
Pretty good 40
Fair 39
Poor 4
Do you approve or disapprove of John Edwards running
for president in 2004?
Approve 47%
Disapprove 48
If the 2004 election for North Carolina's U.S.
Senate were held today, would you vote to re-elect
John Edwards, consider voting for another
candidate, or vote to replace Edwards?
Re-elect Edwards 34%
Consider another 34
Replace Edwards 32
General election matchup:
All Men Wom Wht Blk Dem GOP Ind
Edwards 47% 43% 51% 42% 76% 87% 6% 48%
Burr 39 44 34 45 1 9 72 36
Undecided 14 13 15 13 23 4 22 16
Fav/unfav ratings:
Fav/Unfav
Edwards 42%/ 40%
Burr 38 / 19
Bowles 33 / 18
Blue 29 / 12
A Research 2000 poll, conducted 5/18-21/03 for the Raleigh News and Observer, surveyed 600 likely voters; margin of error +/- 4% (release, 5/25). Tested: Sen. John Edwards (D) and Rep. Richard Burr (R).
How would you rate the performance of John Edwards
as U.S. senator -- excellent, pretty good, only
fair or poor?
All Men Wom Wht Blk Dem GOP Ind
Excellent 4% 3% 5% 2% 19% 8% 2% 3%
Good 42 39 45 36 56 66 20 40
Fair 39 42 36 45 5 18 60 39
Poor 6 9 3 12 2 2 12 4
Not sure 9 7 11 5 18 6 6 14
If the 2004 election for North Carolina's U.S.
Senate were held today, would you vote to re-elect
John Edwards, would you consider voting for
another candidate, or would you vote to replace
Edwards?
All Men Wom Wht Blk Dem GOP Ind
Re-elect Edwards 32% 28% 36% 26% 77% 66% 3% 27%
Consider another 33 31 35 37 4 25 39 35
Replace Edwards 35 41 29 37 1 9 58 38
Not sure * * * * 18 * * *
Do you approve or disapprove of John Edwards running
for president in 2004?
All Men Wom Wht Blk Dem GOP Ind
Approve 45% 41% 49% 40% 65% 79% 9% 47%
Disapprove 51 56 46 57 10 17 84 52
Not sure 4 3 5 3 25 4 7 1
(Asked only among those who responded "disapprove"
in the previous question) Which of the following
best describes why you disapprove -- I approve of
the job he is doing as senator and I would prefer he
continue to represent me as my senator; or I approve
of the job he is doing as senator but don't believe
he's suited to be president; or I disapprove of the
job he is doing as senator but don't believe he's
suited to be president?
Represent 36%
Not suited 16
Disapprove 46
Not sure 2
General election matchup:
All Men Wom Wht Blk Dem GOP Ind
Edwards 47% 44% 50% 42% 75% 85% 8% 49%
Burr 36 41 31 42 2 8 68 32
Undecided 17 15 19 16 23 7 24 19
Fav/unfav ratings:
Fav/Unfav
Edwards 44%/ 41%
Burr 32 / 17
A Research 2000 poll, conducted 4/21-24/03 for the Raleigh News & Observer, surveyed 600 likely voters; margin of error +/- 4% (release, 4/28/03). Tested: Sen. John Edwards (D) and Rep. Richard Burr (R).
Edwards job ratings:
Excellent 6%
Good 43
Fair 37
Poor 8
General election matchup:
All Men Wom Dem GOP Ind Wht Blk
Edwards 49% 45% 53% 86% 10% 51% 44% 76%
Burr 35 40 30 7 67 31 41 2
DK/Other 16 15 17 7 23 18 15 22
Fav/unfav ratings:
Fav/Unfav
Edwards 47%/ 37%
Burr 29 / 16
A Research 2000 poll, conducted 3/16-19/03 for the Raleigh News & Observer, surveyed 605 likely voters; margin of error +/- 4% (release, 3/21/03). Tested: Sen. John Edwards(D) and Rep. Richard Burr (R).
If the 2004 North Carolina Senate election were held
today, would you:
All Men Wom Wht Blk Dem GOP Ind
Re-elect Edwards 39% 37% 41% 34% 66% 73% 4% 40%
Consider replacing 25 24 26 28 3 16 34 25
Replace Edwards 32 35 29 36 3 7 57 32
Edwards job ratings:
All Men Wom Wht Blk Ind
Excellent 5% 4% 6% 2% 20% 4%
Good 46 44 48 40 59 45
Fair 35 38 32 42 5 34
Poor 8 11 5 13 2 6
General election matchup:
All Men Wom Dem GOP Ind Wht Blk
Edwards 48% 44% 52% 84% 10% 50% 43% 73%
Burr 33 38 28 6 63 30 39 3
DK/Other 19 18 20 10 27 20 18 24
Fav/unfav ratings:
Fav/Unfav
Edwards 48%/ 35%
Burr 26 / 12
A Research 2000 poll, conducted 2/16-19/03 for the Raleigh News & Observer, surveyed 607 likely voters; margin of error +/- 4% (release, 2/24/03). Tested: Sen. John Edwards (D) and Rep. Richard Burr (R).
Edwards job ratings:
Excellent 7%
Good 45
Fair 33
Poor 8
If the 2004 North Carolina Senate election were held
today, would you:
Re-elect Edwards 41%
Consider replacing 23
Replace Edwards 30
General election matchup:
All Men Wom Dem GOP Ind Wht Blk
Edwards 49% 45% 53% 84% 11% 52% 44% 72%
Burr 31 37 25 5 61 27 38 2
DK/Other 20 18 22 11 28 21 18 26
Ral
Char Dur N.E. S.E. W.NC Greens
Edwards 43% 56% 57% 56% 40% 42%
Burr 35 24 24 25 40 38
DK/Other 22 20 19 19 20 20
Fav/unfav ratings:
Fav/Unfav ID
Edwards 50%/ 34% 84%
Burr 24 / 13 37
A Research 2000 poll, conducted 1/13-16/03 for the Raleigh News & Observer, surveyed 603 likely voters; margin of error +/- 4%. (release, 1/21/03). Tested: Sen. John Edwards (D). Edwards job rating: Excellent 6% Good 43 Fair 31 Poor 9 If the 2004 North Carolina Senate election were held today, would you: Re-elect Edwards 39% Consider replacing 21 Replace Edwards 32University of North Carolina The University of North Carolina poll, conducted 3/23-27/03, surveyed 615 adults; margin of error +/- 4% (University of North Carolina Daily Tar Heel, 4/1). Tested: Sen. John Edwards (D). Edwards job rating: Excellent 10% Good 39 Only fair 24 Poor 11
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