Florida Senate   Mel Martinez (R) defeated Betty Castor (D)  • LATEST POLLS    • CAMPAIGN ADS    • NEWS FROM HOTLINE    • CANDIDATE LINKS    • ELECTION RESULTS    • ALL SENATE TIP SHEETS

Former HUD Secretary Mel Martinez (R) survived a crowed GOP primary and bested Democrat Betty Castor in a tight contest, 49 percent to 48 percent. Martinez will replace retiring Sen. Bob Graham (D).

  • On The Trail Rank: 9 of 34 (Analysis)
  • Cook Rating: Toss Up (Analysis)
  • Filing Deadline: May 7, 2004
  • Primary Date: Aug. 31, 2004
  • 1998 Results: Bob Graham (D) won
    a third term with 62 percent of the vote.

Poll Track

For more numbers on this race, see Poll Track.

LATEST POLL

Castor (D)
Martinez (R)
A Zogby International poll; conducted 10/28-31/04; surveyed 600 likely voters; margin of error +/-4.1% (release, 10/31).

Campaign Ads

Search the archives for all 2004 campaign commercials in Ad Spotlight.

• Castor Tackles Martinez, Who Tells His Cinderella Story (Sept. 22, 2004)
  
• Castor Praises Veterans In English & Spanish (Sept. 15, 2004)
  
• Fla. Senate Candidates Battle Each Other To The Finish (Aug. 31, 2004)
  
• Castor Outlines Health Care Agenda (Aug. 18, 2004)
  
• Deutsch Airs Moore's Praise For Recount (Aug. 16, 2004)
  
• Deutsch Gets Personal On Stem-Cell Debate (Aug. 11, 2004)
  
• Senate Hopefuls Think Locally In Florida (Aug. 9, 2004)
  
• Deutsch Pledges To Fight Stem-Cell Ban (Aug. 2, 2004)
  
• Martinez, McCollum Debut; Castor Chimes In (July 29, 2004)
  
• Castor Debuts, Deutsch Touts Record (July 19, 2004)
  

News From Hotline

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LATEST HEADLINES


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Field Of Candidates

*Incumbent Bob Graham (D) is retiring.

The Democratic candidate for this race is:

BETTY CASTOR (D) -- Former state education commissioner; former state senator   • Campaign Web site

The Republican candidate for this race is:

MEL MARTINEZ (R) -- Former HUD secretary   • Campaign Web site

Election Results

2004 General	Candidate	Total Votes	Percent	Expenditures
	Mel Martinez (R)	3,665,625	49%	N/A
	Betty Castor (D)	3,582,280	48%	N/A
	Other	165,909	2%	N/A
2004 Dem Primary	Candidate	Total Votes	Percent	Expenditures
	Betty Castor (D)	667,285	58%	N/A
	Peter Deutsch (D)	324,131	28%	N/A
	Alex Penelas (D)	115,151	10%	N/A
	Bernard Klein (D)	47,078	4%	N/A
2004 GOP Primary	Candidate	Total Votes	Percent	Expenditures
	Mel Martinez (R)	520,783	45%	N/A
	Bill McCollum (R)	359,291	31%	N/A
	Doug Gallagher (R)	157,869	14%	N/A
	Johnnie Byrd (R)	68,732	6%	N/A
	Karen Saull (R)	20,623	2%	N/A
	Sonya March (R)	17,753	2%	N/A
	Larry Klayman (R)	13,220	1%	N/A
	Billy Kogut (R)	3,691	*%	N/A
1998 General	Candidate	Total Votes	Percent	Expenditures
	Bob Graham (D)	2,436,402	62%	$5,094,581
	Charlie Crist (R)	1,463,749	38%	$1,487,498
1998 Primary	Candidate	Total Votes	Percent	Expenditures
	Bob Graham (D)	Unopposed	---	N/A
1992 General	Candidate	Total Votes	Percent	Expenditures
	Bob Graham (D)	3,245,565	65%	$3,318,473
	Bill Grant (R)	1,716,505	35%	$242,251

Cook Report Analysis

(Note: Analysis was published in October 2004 and does not reflect events that occurred after that date)

Both parties hosted competitive August 31 primaries in Florida, where Democratic Sen. Bob Graham is stepping down after three terms. Former state Education Commissioner Betty Castor emerged from a five-way Democratic primary with an impressive 58 percent of the vote. On the Republican side, Mel Martinez, a former secretary of Housing and Urban Development, beat out seven other candidates to win the nomination with 45 percent.

Martinez and Castor represent their respective parties' strongest possible nominees, but they were forced to wait nearly a month before they could prove it. The hurricanes that raked the state in September wreaked havoc with the Senate race. With electricity and phone service out in various parts of the state at different points, it was impossible to conduct a statewide poll. It was also useless to run advertising and politically foolish to do any real campaigning.

Toward the end of September, though, the race began to take shape. Castor went on television in two media markets with ads in English and Spanish touting her support for military personnel and veterans, as well as outlining her priorities: creating jobs and improving education.

Castor has also attempted to inoculate herself against an incident that became an issue in the primary. While she was president of the University of South Florida, a tenured professor, Sami al-Arian, was accused of providing financial support to radical Islamic organizations. Castor suspended al-Arian and launched an investigation. After 9/11, law enforcement authorities uncovered enough evidence to arrest al-Arian, who is now in jail. Castor points to the incident as evidence of her experience in dealing with terrorism-related issues. Martinez views the incident, which he has cited in campaign ads, as an example of Castor's failure to show leadership.

For his part, Martinez is playing up his experience as a member of Bush's Cabinet and his support for the president. Former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani appeared in an ad that praised Martinez's efforts to assist the Big Apple in the aftermath of 9/11.

But Martinez's journey on the campaign trail has been rocky. The GOP primary grew nasty in its final days, when Martinez's campaign aired a television ad alleging that former Rep. Bill McCollum supported an "anti-family" agenda, namely that he supports stem-cell research. The ad and a subsequent direct-mail piece raised the ire of Republican leaders, including Gov. Jeb Bush, and prompted one newspaper to withdraw its endorsement. Since then, Martinez has worked to unify the party. In the general election campaign, he has come under fire for referring to the federal agents who removed refugee Elian Gonzales from a relative's home and returned him to his father in Cuba as "armed thugs."

It is clear that Martinez got a boost from his questioning of Castor's actions regarding al-Arian. If that is the issue on voters' minds on Election Day, Castor will be at a disadvantage. She would be better off if the debate in the final days of the race is over domestic issues like education.

For all Martinez's problems, this race is very evenly matched at every level -- from political geography to finances. It is also a very short one since the weather created a four- or five-week general election, putting yet more pressure on both campaigns.

The one thing not affected by the hurricanes is all the attention that Florida is getting from the national parties. Both are investing heavily in a state that may again decide the presidential election, and these investments are benefiting the two Senate candidates.