By Stan Collender, NationalJournal.com
© National Journal Group Inc.
Tuesday, July 31, 2007

Does anyone in the White House realize that information about what has already happened on the budget is readily available and that the incorrect information, substantial misinformation, and disingenuous statements in its fight with Congress over the FY08 budget can easily be exposed?

Better question: Does anyone in the White House care?

	The administration's statements about the budget are far more like propaganda than the analytical disagreements that sometimes occur in the budget debate.

In a speech last Thursday, President Bush said the federal deficit has been declining each of the past few years. He also bragged that his budget policies would yield a surplus in FY12.

But while he was doing this bragging, the president seemed to forget, or simply decided not to mention, several extremely important things.

First, he doesn't get credit for reducing the deficit unless he also gets the blame for creating it. There were four consecutive surpluses just before the Bush administration began, and the forecast of $5.6 trillion in continuing surpluses in the years after it began was the principal reason the White House said big tax cuts were justified. It's clear at this point that those surpluses were close to science fiction. But the tax cuts, heightened spending for military activities, and increased and new entitlements proceeded anyway. The result was a deficit that reached record-high levels in nominal terms.

Second, not surprisingly, the president didn't use the word "debt" at any time in his almost 6,400-word speech. He didn't say that, while the deficit may be falling, the debt will increase by what now appears will be close to $3 trillion by the time he leaves office.

Later in the speech, the president said we have a responsibility not to pass on problems "to future Congresses or future generations." But he avoided mentioning that federal interest payments will be much higher than they would have otherwise been for the next three decades or so because his administration financed much of its $3 trillion in additional borrowing with short-term borrowing that will have to be refinanced at higher rates when it comes due -- long after he leaves office.

Third, the president bragged about how the FY07 deficit would be "lower than the national average over the last 10 years." But that calculation seems to exclude the surpluses that existed from FY98 to FY01. When those four years are included, the average deficit is 0.9 percent of GDP, and the FY08 number the president cited is well above it.

The only way the president's statement is correct is if he looks just at the past six years. So what he was really saying wasn't that this year's deficit would be less than the average from the past decade, just that it will be lower as a percentage of GDP than the average of the six deficits that have occurred while he has been in office. That just doesn't sound as good, and isn't.

Fourth, the president said Congress has a responsibility to send him the appropriations bills one at a time instead of in a continuing resolution or in an omnibus that combines several bills into one. He specifically said, "That's what the American people expect."

Left unsaid was that this has never seemed to be an issue the president cared about before. Not once during the first six years of the Bush administration did the White House ever publicly express even the slightest concern when the Republican-controlled Congress was unable or, as was the case last year, unwilling to pass appropriations on time or one-at-a-time. In fact, since 2001, Congress passed multiple continuing resolutions every year and relied on omnibus bills for FY01, 03, 04, and 05.

Fifth, the president said that, "in a time of war," Congress should pass the Pentagon appropriation before the start of the August recess.

Perhaps the president forgot that the federal fiscal year doesn't begin until October 1, so additional funds won't be available for the military until then whether the DOD appropriation is enacted in July, August, or September. Procedurally, the troops won't be jeopardized in any way if the bill is not passed before the August recess begins.

His credibility on this issue is suspect in any case. Over the past six years, Congress has adopted the Pentagon appropriation by the start of the summer recess only once (FY05). Twice (FY04 and 07) it was enacted in the last days of September. Three times (FY02, 03 and 06) it was enacted well after the fiscal year began. At no time during this period did the White House ever call on Congress to adopt the bill before the August recess or criticize it for not getting the work done before the fiscal year began.

(The president's credibility is also suspect because of his complete unwillingness to criticize the Iraqi parliament for taking an August recess. If it was especially important for the U.S. Congress to act on this legislation "in a time of war," shouldn't the president have said that first about what the Iraqi parliament is supposed to be doing, with the war literally happening all around it?)

Finally, the president said in his speech that it's time to "confront this business about earmarks." However, he said this after having approved the biggest expansion of earmarks in U.S. history. For the past six-plus years, the president had the power to stop earmarks dead in their tracks by vetoing every appropriation that included them. Instead, he vetoed none, thereby allowing far more additional spending than he is now daring Congress to add to his budget.

Last Thursday's speech is just the latest sign that the White House's war with Congress on the FY08 appropriations is still heating up. The administration's statements about the budget are so easy to disprove and discredit that they are far more like propaganda than the analytical disagreements that sometimes occur in the budget debate. That doesn't bode well for the final two months before FY08 begins.

-- Stan Collender is a NationalJournal.com contributing editor and managing director at Qorvis Communications in Washington, D.C. A frequent speaker on the budget and the economy to audiences across the country, he is also author of "The Guide to the Federal Budget." His e-mail address is secollender@nationaljournal.com.

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