Clinton has two gigantic hurdles to overcome in order to make it to the White House. First, her husband (from what to do with him during the campaign to how to deal with the negatives his name creates to certain "values" voters). The second hurdle is the biggest one of all: her gender.
Is the country ready for a female commander in chief? It will be a running debate for as long as Clinton is an active presidential candidate. As we've examined in past columns, there are even some Democrats who seem uneasy at the thought of a female president. We've speculated that these are older labor men and senior women, mostly from Midwestern battleground states. Past election results show that Minnesota, Iowa, Wisconsin and even Michigan have all seen Democratic women underperform normal Democratic performances in statewide bids.
Now, toss in the dimension of some Republican 527 (or even an actual Republican Party committee) running ads, which create the impression that Pelosi is Clinton's ideological running mate. Remember those "Dole-Gingrich" TV ads the Democratic National Committee dumped on the Republicans in 1996? Then there's the tag line, which goes something like this: "Are we ready to turn the country over to those whose values stem from New York and San Francisco?"
There will be a number of subtexts that Clinton's GOP foes will hope this (or a similar) ad touches: from tapping into big-city prejudices to political chauvinism when it comes to running the country. This may come across as raw (even chauvinistic on our part), but politics is rough and any election involving a Clinton will be even rougher.
Can Democrats prevent this stereotyping of Pelosi? Of course. The minority leader needs to embark on a PR tour of sorts with those in the "whisper community" of the Democratic Party, particularly as prospects for a Democratic takeover in the House increase. These are the same folks who talk to a lot of reporters and are intricately involved with a lot of '06 and '08 campaigns. Pelosi must not only ask for outside advice but actually take some of it as well. She's got a reputation (fair or unfair) for being a "my way or the highway" type of leader. She doesn't quite have the political capital within the Democratic Party to lead that way just yet -- maybe in time, but not yet. Pelosi needs to demonstrate that she'll be an asset to the party, and any stereotype folks will attempt to paint on her -- should she become speaker -- will fail to take hold.
Trail Droppings
It's been a while since we've dived into a number of happenings around the country:
• Katrina Moments: As far as 2008 is concerned, there are two Democrats worth keeping an eye on to see if they can gain more traction: former Sen. John Edwards, D-N.C., and Sen. Barack Obama, D-Ill.
Timing is everything and Edwards' attempts the past nine months to bring a higher profile to the issue of poverty had previously fallen on some deaf ears. Not anymore. For now, it appears Edwards is trying to walk a fine line and not look like he's attempting to politicize the situation. But one wonders if he ought to do more than just run his poverty center. Perhaps he should create some organization, a la Habitat for Humanity, that doesn't just put out policy papers, but can actually point to private sector accomplishments.
As for Obama, he has no choice but to increase his national profile. As the only black senator, he owes it to the Katrina victims to become their voice in the Senate. Politically, if Obama doesn't take as high a profile role as he possibly can, he would damage himself, particularly with black political leaders. It was very interesting to note how the Illinois Democrat avoided attacking singer Kanye West on ABC's "This Week" last Sunday, and instead tried to find a middle ground. It's what Obama does best. Before Katrina, he had been keeping his head down trying not to be perceived, like Edwards, as being in a hurry. Katrina has sped up the timetable.
• Who Lost Virginia: We think we now know how the excuses are going to line up depending on the result of the most politically significant election of 2005. If Democrat Tim Kaine wins Virginia, Republicans can point to a number of factors that will have little to do with their candidate -- Jerry Kilgore. These include Bush's overall unpopularity (both nationally and even in the state), the crisis in confidence Katrina may be causing Republicans in general, Democrat Gov. Mark Warner's enormous popularity and, finally, Republican-turned-independent H. Russell Potts Jr. taking GOP votes in the Shenandoah Valley.
What does all of this mean for Kaine if he loses? His folks will attempt to blame it on the state, saying it's still Republican, etc. But let's be realistic; every intangible is in Kaine's favor so if he does lose, the blame is going to fall squarely on his shoulders.
• Things We Think We Know: Texas GOP Gov. Rick Perry is the biggest Katrina "winner."... Ground Zero for Americans who may have lost complete faith in government will be in the Cincinnati (not Louisiana) media market. Between the scandals in Ohio and Kentucky, all those area voters are hearing about state government is that it's crooked. ... The likelihood of Clinton leading the Democratic ticket guarantees that a Republican white male White House nominee has to name a minority or woman as his running mate. ... Republicans contemplating bids for governor (Illinois' Jim Edgar?) and senator (North Dakota's John Hoeven) will end up not running simply out of fear of the national GOP landscape.
-- Chuck Todd is a NationalJournal.com contributing editor and editor in chief of The Hotline. His e-mail address is ctodd@nationaljournal.com.
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