By Chuck Todd, NationalJournal.com
© National Journal Group Inc.
Wednesday, June 8, 2005

When it comes to the 2006 elections, most Americans care more about who their governor is going to be than who represents them in Congress.

	The key to any major gains for either party in the Senate may depend on the success of a handful of gubernatorial nominees.

And this means that the key to any major gains for either party in the Senate may depend on the success of a handful of gubernatorial nominees. These gubernatorial campaigns aren't just important because they'll get the lion's share of a state's press coverage (though that matters a great deal and will help in many cases to define the political climate for a specific state). Rather, tactically, these contests provide gigantic campaign finance loopholes for the national parties to take advantage of in order to put together first-class field operations.

In just about every state (sans a Senate race featuring a self-funding millionaire), the governor's race has more lenient campaign finance rules (either via the state party or via the actual gubernatorial campaign itself) and that could end up being a key ingredient in helping a Senate candidate to victory. In fact, evidence suggests a party's chances of picking up a Senate seat greatly increases if the target state also features a governor's contest. Moreover, for political parties, there's a strong correlation between success in a governor's race and a Senate race.

In 2002, the states where the GOP made Senate gains also coincided with gubernatorial pickups for the party, including: Georgia, South Carolina and Minnesota. In fact, in the one state where the Democrats netted a seat -- Arkansas -- the state's GOP governor, Mike Huckabee, was facing his toughest re-election fight to date and was actually a bit distracted.

Three of the Democratic Senate pickups in 2000 came in states where the Democrat was running with a successful Democratic candidate for governor: Delaware, Missouri and Washington. Meanwhile, two of the three Senate seats that actually switched hands on Election Day in 1998 also left the party with corresponding success at the governor level (Illinois and Ohio; New York was the exception).

While internal dynamics can be cited in each of these cases, we believe it's more than a coincidence that Senate gains coincided with gubernatorial success. It's certainly more likely for a Senate race to follow a governor trend than vice versa.

And it certainly makes Senate targets in states where the governor is of the opposite party all the more interesting to track (14 Senate seats fit this category in 2006). Among the most competitive 2006 Senate races are those in these eight states where the open Senate seat and governorship are held by opposite political parties.

• ARIZONA: GOP Sen. Jon Kyl is only vulnerable if millionaire state Democratic Party Chairman Jim Pederson decides to run -- and all signs are pointing in that direction. One of the most compelling reasons for Pederson to enter the race is that ultra-popular Democratic Gov. Janet Napolitano is looking like a sure bet for re-election herself. Kyl may wish there was a stronger GOP presence in the governor's race.

• FLORIDA: Democratic Sen. Bill Nelson is potentially vulnerable to any Republican, even Rep. Katherine Harris. And despite some worry among Republicans about whether Harris is electable in a general election campaign, no one doubts her ability to raise money. Moreover, the GOP field for governor is much stronger than the Democratic field, something Nelson himself has been fretting over. Florida is one of those states with campaign finance loopholes wide enough to accommodate a Mack truck -- at least when it comes to state party soft money fund-raising.

• MARYLAND: To think the GOP ticket in this Democratic-leaning state could be one of the strongest in the country is somewhat astounding. However, the tandem of GOP Lt. Gov. Michael Steele as the Senate nominee and Gov. Bob Ehrlich as the gubernatorial candidate is why Republicans feel as good about their chances for a Senate pickup than they have in decades. The strongest Democratic ticket is unknown right now as some argue the state's top two stars are both running for the same office: governor.

• MINNESOTA: Despite the state's Democratic leanings, Republicans once again appear on track to have the strongest governor and Senate nominee team with incumbent Gov. Tim Pawlenty and Rep. Mark Kennedy. Democrats are looking at competitive and ideological battles for both nods, and while there's confidence among national party operatives that they'll be in good shape with any of their Senate candidates, the party can't afford one of its weaker gubernatorial candidates in the general election campaign.

• NEBRASKA: Democrat Ben Nelson is about as safe as he's going to get and that still could mean he'll have a battle on his hands. The state's most popular Republican (Tom Osborne) is the likely GOP nominee for governor, and if he puts forth the effort to raise a lot of money as the nominee and be a party leader, Nelson could have a problem. That said, Osborne has never acted as a party guy or shown himself to be a big fund-raiser. And we wouldn't be surprised if Osborne decides to coast once he gets through the fairly competitive GOP primary with acting Gov. Dave Heineman.

• PENNSYLVANIA: If there is one big "x" factor going against GOP Sen. Rick Santorum, it's the fact that his party might not be that competitive against Democratic Gov. Ed Rendell. And if Rendell has a relatively free hand to help out Bob Casey Jr. in the Senate race, he'll use it since his own reputation is on the line. In fact, the potential of Rendell cruising to re-election and creating coattails is what has motivated some wealthy Republicans to push former Pittsburgh Steelers player Lynn Swann into the governor's race -- just to force Rendell's attention away from Santorum.

• TENNESSEE: Democrats have to like the fact that the one thing the party may have going for it in this uphill race to replace Republican Bill Frist is that multimillionaire Gov. Phil Bredesen (D) could be running somewhat unopposed. Assuming he's the Senate nominee, Democrat Harold Ford Jr. is going to need all the help he can get. If Bredesen can fund a field program or help boost the state party coffers, that's one less thing Ford has to worry about. This could be why we've been hearing whispers among some Republicans that one of the big three in the Senate race -- Bob Corker, Van Hilleary or Ed Bryant -- ought to make the jump to the governor's contest.

• VERMONT: In what could be a mini-Maryland for the GOP, it's possible the party ends up with its governor, James Douglas, in a strong position for re-election, while his running mate, Lt Gov. Brian Dubie, fights to hold off Democratic-leaning Independent Rep. Bernie Sanders in the Senate contest. Dubie's no Michael Steele, but he did win the lieutenant governor post on his own, not as a tandem with Douglas. Still, it's questionable whether Douglas can really have an impact on any campaign that features Sanders since the outspoken Socialist-leaning congressman will garner the lion's share of the media spotlight.

  -- Chuck Todd is a NationalJournal.com contributing editor and editor in chief of The Hotline. His e-mail address is ctodd@nationaljournal.com.

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