By Charlie Cook
NationalJournal.com
Tuesday, May 11, 2004

It's hard to say whether the last round of national polls were worse for President Bush or for Sen. John Kerry, D-Mass. Just looking at Bush's numbers could easily lead one to conclude that he would likely lose re-election. Indeed, pollster John Zogby flat-out predicted a Kerry victory this past weekend. But, looking only at Kerry's numbers produces the sense that he's on his way to a head-to-toe tattooing by the Bush campaign.

Just looking at Bush's numbers could easily lead one to conclude that he would likely lose re-election. But, looking only at Kerry's numbers produces the sense that he's on his way to a head-to-toe tattooing by the Bush campaign.

It has long been argued that when a president is seeking re-election, it is more of a referendum on the incumbent than a contest between two candidates. If that is the case, Bush is in deep trouble. According to an NBC News/Wall Street Journal survey conducted May 1-3 by Peter Hart and Robert Teeter (margin of error +/-3 percent), only 33 percent of the 1,012 registered voters interviewed felt the country was headed in the right direction, while 50 percent said it was on the wrong track. Among the 1,000 adults interviewed in the May 3-5 Associated Press/Ipsos Public Affairs poll (margin of error +/-3.5 percent), 38 percent said "right direction," while 58 percent indicated "wrong track."

As veteran Republican pollster Steve Lombardo put it, the "wrong track is approaching the danger zone for an incumbent." Lombardo noted that "some polls show it as high as 62 percent," and he suggested the high "wrong track" number was "most likely a result of Iraq volatility and the prisoner abuse scandal -- it is hugely problematic for the president."

In the NBC/WSJ survey, when respondents were asked whether "George W. Bush deserves to be re-elected, or do you feel that he does not deserve to be re-elected," 45 percent chose re-election, while 49 percent said Bush does not deserve re-election.

In terms of the president's overall job approval rating, the NBC/WSJ survey pegged it at 47 percent, with 46 percent disapproving. The AP/Ipsos poll had the approval at 48 percent among registered voters and the disapproval at 50 percent. A May 2-4 Gallup poll (margin of error +/- 4 percent) had 49 percent approval to 48 percent disapproval. And a slightly older CBS News/New York Times poll (margin of error +/-3 percent) taken April 23-27 had Bush's approval at 46 percent and disapproval at 47 percent. This range of approval ratings -- 46 percent to 49 percent -- puts Bush into a twilight zone. These ratings are higher than recent presidents who have lost, but worse than those who won. Bush is right on the bubble.

The irony is that all of this is occurring at a time when the economy -- which had been Bush's Achilles Heel -- is improving, while two areas that had been his strengths -- foreign policy and the war in Iraq -- are quickly becoming his weaknesses.

Job numbers released after these polls were conducted showed a whopping 288,000 net increase in jobs in April, and an upward revision from 308,000 to 337,000 in the March numbers. Yet Bush's approval ratings on the economy remain poor. One explanation is that because voters have never associated tax cuts with job creation and economic stimulation, they give him little credit for the recovery. (It should be noted that low interest rates, a cheap dollar, huge levels of government spending and tax cuts all served to stimulate the economy.) Another view is that positive economic developments have been offset by rising gasoline prices and the increased cost of milk, which has hit a record high of $3 per gallon. Whatever the reason, we learned in 1992, and perhaps 2000 in retrospect, that the perception of the economy -- and of a president's handling of it -- is more important than the reality.

Having said all of that, the three major national media polls conducted this month had Bush leading Kerry by margins of one, three and four percentage points in three-way trial heats among registered voters. In two-way trial heats, they were tied in two, and Bush was ahead by three points in the third. Given Bush's re-elect score and approval ratings, one might normally expect the president to be five or six points behind, yet he is at worst tied and more likely very slightly ahead.

When Hart and Teeter asked about personal feelings toward Kerry in the NBC/WSJ poll, 38 percent had positive feelings, and 38 percent had negative feelings. While 59 percent said Kerry has the right experience and background to be president, only 34 percent said they had either "a great deal" or "quite a bit" of confidence in Kerry to be commander in chief; 61 percent said they had either "just some" or "very little" confidence. A whopping 49 percent said they had some concern over charges that "Kerry has a habit of straddling both sides of issues."

The next big thing to watch is to what extent Kerry's new and long overdue wave of biographical spots can repair some of the damage inflicted by the Bush campaign's advertising.

Charlie Cook, a NationalJournal.com contributing editor, is the founder and publisher of the Cook Political Report. This column, which also runs in CongressDailyAM when Congress is in session, appears each Tuesday morning. In addition, Cook writes a weekly column for National Journal magazine. His e-mail address cookreport@nationaljournal.com.

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