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On The Trail
1998 Races:
Return Of The Year Of The Woman

By Charles Todd
© NationalJournal.com
Tuesday, July 15, 1997

The "Year of the Woman" tag was most recently associated with the 1992 elections. That year, women were major party nominees in key Senate races (most notably California) and Election Day found six women -- up from the previous Congress' two -- as U.S. senators.

It's almost a lock that there will be more women statewide candidates in 1998 than ever before. The key question is, will there be more women voters?
  
But if early candidate recruiting lists are any guide, 1998 could be an even bigger year for women. Not only is 1998 the first major test of "Year of the Woman" Sens. Barbara Boxer, D-Calif.; Carol Moseley-Braun, D-Ill.; and Patty Murray, D-Wash.; but the number of female candidates running for either senator or governor could hit an all-time high.

Unlike 1992, in 1998 Boxer, Moseley-Braun and Murray will not have the help of presidential coattails. Instead, they must run against the famed "six-year itch" -- what has historically been a clobbering of the president's party midway through his second term. If turnout is similar to the 1994 midterms, this could be a major problem for not only the three incumbent women, but many Democratic challengers for Senate and governor as well.

In 1992, 13 of the 46 major statewide races (11 Dem, 2 GOP) had women nominees; five emerged victorious: 

Senate Races                          
Winners (5)        Losers (6)
Boxer (Calif.)       Haar (S.D.)
Feinstein (Calif.)   Lloyd-Jones (Iowa)
Mikulski (Md.)       O'Dell (Kansas)
Moseley-Braun (Ill.) Rothman-Serot (Mo.)
Murray (Wash.)       Sargent (Ariz.)
                     Yeakel (Pa.)

Governor Races
Winners (0)        Losers (2)
                     Arnesen (N.H.)
                     Bradley (Mont.)
In 1994, however, only three of the eighteen major-party women (including an independent in Connecticut) running for governor or Senate won election: 
Senate Races                   
Winners (3)        Losers (5)     
Feinstein (Calif.)   Castro (N.Y.)     
Hutchison (Texas)    Hustace (Hawaii)  
Snowe (Maine)        Kushner (R.I.)    
                     Stoney (Neb.)     
                     Wynia (Minn.)     
                                       
Governor Races
Winners (0)        Losers (10)
                     Brown (Calif.)
                     Campbell (Iowa)
                     Collins (Maine)
                     Groark (Conn.)
                     Karpan (Wyo.)
                     Netsch (Ill.)
                     Richards (Texas)
                     Saiki (Hawaii)
                     Sauerbrey (Md.)
                     York (R.I.)
Still, if 1992 was a banner year for women candidate recruitment, 1998 could be the break-out year where a majority of these statewide candidates actually win their elections. Of 70 big contests in 1998 (36 governor and 34 Senate), women could be major-party nominees in 27 races (15 governor and 12 Senate). In some cases, the general election will likely be a two-woman affair.

On the Senate side, Democrats have a big lead in the early recruiting of women candidates. Note: Pennsylvania Democrats in and Washington Republicans may have multiple women running. 

Democrats (13)           Republicans (4)
Boxer (Calif.)              Didrickson (Ill.) 
Boyle (Ohio)                Dunn (Wash.)
Davis (Ala.)                Golding (Calif.)
Docking (Kan.)              Smith (Wash.)
Ferraro (N.Y.)
Lamm (Colo.)
Lambert Lincoln (Ark.)
Mikulski (Md.)
Moseley-Braun (Ill.)
Murray (Wash.)
Rauh (N.H.)
Rhodes (Pa.)
Schwartz (Pa.)
As for potential GOP Senate nominees, the only women being mentioned as candidates come from the home states of vulnerable Democratic women incumbents. It is also worth noting that only one of the four potential GOP nominees are considered "top tier" by the GOP strategists. But any of the four, as the GOP standard bearer, could be considered serious challengers. On the Democratic side, at least eight of the 13 could become serious contenders if they win the nomination.

In governors' contest, Democrats once again have the lead in women candidate recruitment. (Republican Jane Dee Hull would only be a potential candidate if she assumed the Arizona governorship due to a conviction of sitting GOP Gov. Fife Symington, who is currently standing trial.) 


Democrats (11)            Republicans (5)
Boyd (Okla.)                 Benson (Minn.)
Del Papa (Nev.)              Corning (Iowa)
Feinstein (Calif.)           Hull (Ariz.)
Kennelly (Conn.)             Lingle (Hawaii)
Margolies-Mezvinsky (Pa.)    Sauerbrey (Md.)
Rehrmann (Md.)
Schoettler (Colo.)
Shaheen (N.H.)
Tristani (N.M.)
Willard (Mich.)
York (R.I.)
A cautionary note: Women candidates in the mid-term elections of 1994 performed horribly on Election Day. That year, much of the credit for the GOP sweep was given to the unusually high turnout among conservative men, combined with low turnout among women.

It's almost a lock that there will be more women statewide candidates in 1998 than ever before. The key question is, will there be more women voters?

SENATE SIDELINES
With the year more than half over, GOP and Democratic strategists are anxiously awaiting the full release of Federal Election Commission reports from potential or likely Senate candidates -- one of the best guides for separating the pretenders from the contenders.

Some incumbent war chests to watch: Fritz Hollings in South Carolina, Scott McInnis and Ben Nighthorse Campbell of Colorado and Jennifer Dunn of Washington. Oversized or undersized fund-raising figures from any of these folks could be a good clue as to what their '98 intentions might be.

HOUSE HUSTINGS
Even though the '98 election cycle has barely begun, many members of the House are already looking at themselves as Senate material for 2000. Among the notables: Jon Christensen, R-Neb.; George Nethercutt, R-Wash., (also a potential '98 senate candidate); Jim Gibbons, R-Nev.; and Tom Davis, R-Va.. It is worth noting that three of these four first won election in 1994 over Democratic incumbents. If more of the '94 GOP class decides to seek higher office, it could be headache time for the NRCC, as they will have the unenviable task of defending a large number of potentially vulnerable open seats. Stay tuned.

Charles Todd is political editor of The Hotline, National Journal's daily briefing on politics. His e-mail address is ctodd@nationaljournal.com.

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