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Will a Bargain Be Struck to Reverse the Sequestration Cuts? Will a Bargain Be Struck to Reverse the Sequestration Cuts?

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Magazine / POLITICAL INSIDERS POLL

Will a Bargain Be Struck to Reverse the Sequestration Cuts?

In Washington, all financial skirmishes lead to the same place.

March 7, 2013

Will a bargain be struck to reverse the sequestration spending cuts?

DEMOCRATS (96 VOTES)

Yes: 21%
No: 42%
Too early to tell: 37%

Yes

 

“Nobody can live with the cuts, and the GOP can’t live with the blame.”

“When the pain kicks in—not the pain for those impacted by the cuts, but the pain experienced when poll numbers for the politicians head south—a deal will be struck.”

“Ecclesiastes tells us there is a time and place for everything. This too shall pass.”

No

“People will be surprised at how little most Americans directly feel the impact of these spending reductions.”

“The tea party has painted the [Republicans] into a corner that Boehner can’t get them out of.”

“In the end, all sides will see sequestration as a gift, and try to manage it but not repeal it.”

“Too many House Republicans believe the cuts are good for America to cut a deal.”

“The vacuum of leadership on both sides in Washington is breathtaking; I cannot imagine Sam Rayburn and Everett Dirksen allowing this to happen.”

Too early to tell

“Right now, the pain is spread out and not acute to anyone. No deal will be struck until that changes.”

“The question is not ‘whether’ but ‘when.’ It all depends on the public’s response.”

“If sufficient pain is felt over the next few months, a larger deal on deficit reduction may occur at the confluence of the debt-limit expiration and the [continuing resolution].”

“Hopefully, the participants in this game of chicken get tarred and feathered in November 2014. Cluck, Cluck.”

“Seems like a no-brainer, but we’re dealing with a bunch of, well, no-brainers.”

 

Will a bargain be struck to reverse the sequestration spending cuts?

REPUBLICANS (95 VOTES)

Yes: 20%
No: 45%
Too early to tell: 35%

Yes

“The GOP lost on the fiscal cliff; the White House lost on the sequester. The CR is a chance for them to compromise around a mutual goal—avoiding a shutdown.”

“They will agree to move money around to priority areas. The cuts will remain at the same level.”

No

“The Obama administration has rarely looked worse or lost so much credibility. Right up there with the Mayan apocalypse, Y2K, and Geraldo’s vault. The president’s postelection hubris finally catches up with him.”

“Maybe to reassign the cuts. But if the bargain is to REVERSE the cuts, GOP voters will have the heads of their representatives.”

“The cuts take effect, and the stock market hits an all-time high. Shows you what investors think of Obama’s credibility.”

“Obama’s price for reasonable spending reductions is more taxes, and Republicans won’t give that to him. Game over.”

“Both sides are getting what they want. Republicans get good policy. Democrats get good populist talking points.”

“Obama essentially needs Greek-style protests to prove his point, but if that happens, he will get a great deal of the blame. No deal.”

“The White House botched this so badly it’s hard to see how a deal comes together now.”

Too early to tell

“Nobody cares.... Spring training is more interesting than D.C.”

“There won’t be any tax increases, but the administration will probably cave on accepting flexibility for the existing cuts.”

“Conservatives are being proved right in the short term—that the sky is not falling and that President Obama and his team ratcheted up the fear just a couple of notches too far.”

“Not likely; the GOP knows this is one of the only ways they can get substantial cuts to spending.”

 

In the 2014 midterms, will Republicans surpass the 27 percent Hispanic support that Mitt Romney received last November?

DEMOCRATS (97 VOTES)

Yes: 21%
No: 46%
Too early to tell: 33%

Yes

“We’re talking baseline here. They can’t do worse.”

“The 27 percent was probably unsustainable, though getting more than 30 percent will be difficult.”

“There are plentiful signs they’ve gotten the message—and, more important, their potential candidates see it crystal clear.”

“Hard to do worse, though Jeb Bush may have helped move them down a little more.”

No

“Saying you have to care about Hispanics is not equivalent to caring about Hispanics. Voters know the difference.”

“The Republican brand now encompasses an anti-Hispanic ethic that will not be removed in one election or by one issue.”

“You gotta hand it to Jeb Bush. Just when Marco Rubio was trying to make this his signature issue to rally Latinos, Bush says ‘no’ to a path to citizenship and opens the door for a run in 2016. Take that, GOP panderers.”

“Not a chance. I think 2012 made Hispanic voters realize who looks out for their interests, and immigration reform isn’t going to sway them to the GOP.”

“Their neo-Know-Nothing wing will scuttle a deal, and they will get a huge heaping of blame.”

Too early to tell

“Would be hard to do worse—but, God bless ’em, the GOP will try.”

“It’s easy for them to posture on immigration, but the issue will split the Republican Party like a deck of cards once legislation starts to move.”

“It all depends on whether they can stick together and be part of a bipartisan deal that includes a path to citizenship. They could easily blow it and end up with an even smaller share of the Latino vote.”

“Developments like Jeb Bush pandering to their aging white base don’t bode well for the GOP.”

 

In the 2014 midterms, will Republicans surpass the 27 percent Hispanic support that Mitt Romney received last November?

REPUBLICANS (94 VOTES)

Yes: 60%
No: 7%
Too early to tell: 33%

Yes

“Republican governors will lead the statewide ballots, and they do a much better job of connecting with their minority communities than any of our national pols.”

“As quality a man as Romney is, he represents the floor when it comes to Hispanic support. Nowhere to go but up.”

“The further we get from the election, the more incomprehensibly clueless the Romney effort looks. The good news? The party is taking the lessons of 2012 seriously.”

“Hispanics rejected Romney not just because of his position on immigration but because of how he came across: as a rich corporatist who couldn’t relate to them. Smart Republicans are working to solve both of those problems.”

“Without the Obama turnout operation and with more attention to Hispanics, we will improve.”

“I’m pleasantly surprised at how many grassroots Republicans have internalized that we must improve on this score and what that means for policy and tactics.”

No

“Nixon got 30 percent of the African-American vote in 1960; Goldwater 10 percent in 1964. And it never came back.”

“We are headed to being ever more insular.”

Too early to tell

“If the GOP sinks immigration reform, it will only cement the perception that Republicans don’t like Hispanics. Don’t worry, boys: We can get 125 percent of the white-male vote next time, and 135 percent the time after that!”

“Comprehensive immigration will help if passed with GOP support, but it will take the 2016 national election to make significant headway.”

“Pandering to Hispanics with some sort of immigration reform won’t matter until the party changes its message of hate and bile.”

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Democratic Political Insiders Jill Alper, John Anzalone, Brad Bannon, Dave Beattie, Andy Bechhoefer, Cornell Belcher, Matt Bennett, Mitchell W. Berger, Mike Berman, Stephanie Bosh, Paul Brathwaite, Donna Brazile, Mark Brewer, Ed Bruley, George Bruno, Bonnie Campbell, Bill Carrick, Guy Cecil, Martin J. Chavez, Tony Coelho, Larry Cohen, Jerry Crawford, Brendan Daly, Jeff Danielson, Peter Daou, Howard Dean, Scott DeFife, Jim Demers, Tad Devine, David Di Martino, Debbie Dingell, Monica Dixon, Patrick Dorton, Pat Dujakovich, Anita Dunn, Jeff Eller, Steve Elmendorf, Carter Eskew, Vic Fazio, Peter Fenn, Scott Ferson, Jim Fleischmann, Tina Flournoy, Don Foley, Jeffrey Forbes, Vincent Frillici, Gina Glantz, Niles Godes, John Michael Gonzalez, Joe Grandmaison, Anna Greenberg, Stan Greenberg, Pat Griffin, Larry Grisolano, Michael Gronstal, Lisa Grove, Marcia Hale, Jill Hanauer, Dick Harpootlian, Paul Harstad, Laura Hartigan, Doug Hattaway, Mike Henry, Karen Hicks, Leo Hindery Jr., Harold Ickes, Marcus Jadotte, John Jameson, Steve Jarding, Jonathon Jones, Jim Jordan, Gale Kaufman, Lisa Kountoupes, Celinda Lake, David Lang, Penny Lee, Chris Lehane, Jeff Link, Bob Maloney, Jim Manley, Steve Marchand, Jim Margolis, Paul Maslin, Keith Mason, Susan McCue, Gerald McEntee, Steve McMahon, Tom McMahon, Phil McNamara, David Medina, Michael Meehan, Mark Mellman, John Merrigan, Michael Monroe, Steve Murphy, Janet Napolitano, David Nassar, Marcia Nichols, John Norris, Tom Ochs, Tom O’Donnell, Jeffrey Peck, Debora Pignatelli, Tony Podesta, Jefrey Pollock, Jack Quinn, Larry Rasky, Mame Reiley, Ed Rendell, Steve Ricchetti, Will Robinson, Steve Rosenthal, David Rudd, Ryan Rudominer, John Ryan, Michael Sargeant, Stephanie Schriock, Terry Shumaker, Sean Sinclair, Phil Singer, Erik Smith, Doug Sosnik, Greg Speed, Darry Sragow, Ken Strasma, Doug Thornell, Jeffrey Trammell, Ed Turlington, Rick Wiener, James Williams, JoDee Winterhof, Brian Wolff, Jon Youngdahl, and Jim Zogby.

GOP Political Insiders Dan Allen, Stan Anderson, Gary Andres, Saulius (Saul) Anuzis, Rich Ashooh, Whit Ayres, Brett Bader, Mitch Bainwol, Brian Baker, Gary Bauer, David Beckwith, Paul Bennecke, Clark Benson, Wayne Berman, Brian Bieron, Charlie Black, Kirk Blalock, Carmine Boal, Jeff Boeyink, Ron Bonjean, Jeff Buley, Luke Byars, Nick Calio, Al Cardenas, Danny Carroll, Alex Castellanos, Ron Christie, Jim Cicconi, Jonathan Collegio, Rob Collins, Cesar Conda, Jake Corman, Scott Cottington, Jay Cranford, Greg Crist, Diane Crookham-Johnson, Fergus Cullen, Tom Davis, Mike Dennehy, Ken Duberstein, Debi Durham, Sara Fagen, Frank Fahrenkopf, John Feehery, Don Fierce, Mindy Finn, Carl Forti, Alex Gage, Bruce A. Gates, Sam Geduldig, Adam Geller, Benjamin Ginsberg, David Girard-diCarlo, Bill Greener, Jonathan Grella, Lanny Griffith, Janet Mullins Grissom, Doug Gross, Todd Harris, Steve Hart, Christopher Healy, Ralph Hellmann, Chris Henick, Terry Holt, David Iannelli, Ed Ingle, Jim Innocenzi, Clark Judge, David Keating, David Kensinger, Bob Kjellander, Ed Kutler, Chris LaCivita, Jim Lake, Steven Law, Steve Lombardo, Kevin Madden, Joel Maiola, Gary Maloney, David Marin, Mary Matalin, Dan Mattoon, Brian McCormack, Mark McKinnon, Kyle McSlarrow, Ken Mehlman, Jim Merrill, Lisa Camooso Miller, Tim Morrison, Mike Murphy, Phil Musser, Ron Nehring, Terry Nelson, Neil Newhouse, David Norcross, Ziad Ojakli, Jack Oliver, Todd Olsen, Kevin O’Neill, Connie Partoyan, Billy Piper, Van B. Poole, Tom Rath, Scott Reed, David Rehr, Tom Reynolds, Steve Roberts, Jason Roe, David Roederer, Dan Schnur, Russ Schriefer, Rich Schwarm, Brent Seaborn, Rick Shelby, Andrew Shore, Kevin Shuvalov, Don Sipple, Ken Spain, Fred Steeper, Bob Stevenson, Terry Sullivan, David Tamasi, Eric Tanenblatt, Richard Temple, Heath Thompson, Jay Timmons, Warren Tompkins, Ted Van Der Meid, Dirk van Dongen, Jan van Lohuizen, Stewart Verdery, Dick Wadhams, John Weaver, Lezlee Westine, Dave Winston, Ginny Wolfe, Fred Wszolek, and Matthew Zablud.

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