While Democrats’ shrinking footprint has not prevented them from winning the presidency, it may hinder them from achieving a House majority. Such density aids the construction of districts so overwhelmingly blue that thousands of votes are “wasted” electing candidates sure to win, instead of being cast in competitive races. That helps to explain why even though 50 percent of ballots were cast for Democratic House candidates nationally in 2012, the party’s share of the House next year is only 46 percent, or 201 members.
The difference between Democrats’ share of the 2012 House vote and their share of House seats varies by state. If the two figures were equal in each state, Democrats would gain seats in 23 states and lose seats in 13, for a net total of 219 seats.
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