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Republicans Say They Have Almost Even Odds of Taking Control of the Senate Republicans Say They Have Almost Even Odds of Taking Control of the Se...

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POLITICAL INSIDERS POLL

Republicans Say They Have Almost Even Odds of Taking Control of the Senate

On a scale of zero (no chance) to 10 (virtual certainty), how likely are the Democrats to take over the House in 2014?

DEMOCRATS (100 VOTES)

Average: 3.47
Slight chance (0-3): 53%
Moderate chance (4-6): 41%
High chance (7-10): 6%

 

Slight chance (0-3)

“There are not enough competitive districts.”

“The odds are very long, but if anyone can raise the [money] needed to give Democrats a chance, Nancy Pelosi can.”

 

“Two words: ‘gerry’ and ‘mander.’ ”

“Very difficult in a second midterm.”

“Due to the gerrymandering of the Republicans, there is virtually no chance at the House flipping. Time for a new Democratic leadership team? How ’bout someone under the age of 70?”

“The GOP has numbers, history, and super-PAC money on their side. Democrats have about as much chance of retaking the House as there is that another meteor will hit Russia.”

 

“It takes a wave election for the Democrats to win the House, and there hasn’t been a midterm [that went] that way for an incumbent president’s party since 1934.”

“Oh, to hope and wish, but the redistricting fix is in.”

Moderate chance (4-6)

“History says it won’t happen.”

“Right now, it is possible, and House Republicans are working hard to make Democratic House control a reality.”

“Democrats will need an unlikely perfect alignment of the stars, though it isn’t beyond Republicans to give an assist!”

“The ‘six-year-itch’ is overrated.”

“The public has increasingly had its fill of the nativistic, know-nothing party.”

“Unfortunately, we have too many uncompetitive districts. But the GOP view on immigration and guns might make it possible.”

High chance (7-10)

“Anger over general inaction, coupled with primary challenges from the right, can overcome a lot in a gerrymandered district.”

 

On a scale of zero (no chance) to 10 (virtual certainty), how likely are the Democrats to take over the House in 2014?

Republicans (91 VOTES)

Average: 2.2
Slight chance (0-3): 81%
Moderate chance (4-6): 19%
High chance (7-10): 0%

Slight chance (0-3)

“Forget it till next census.”

“The House Democrats have put themselves in difficult positions in “majority-maker” swing seats and won’t have an Obama operation to help them.”

“ ‘Obamacare’ costs begin kicking in this year.”

“Nothing is impossible. But, district by district, it is hard to see a path as of now.”

“Would require unprecedented popularity of a president and his party after six years in the White House.”

“Off year with a president pushing hard left? Come on.”

“Dems are paying for their insistence on uni-ethnic districts. In a closely divided nation, their method is madness.”

“Party in White House averages a 26-seat House loss in second-term midterm elections.”

“It would take quite the meltdown for a Democratic majority.”

“Gerrymandered maps can fall apart very quickly with a small falloff in base turnout—and the party may have to cut some tough deals on spending and immigration.”

“The House was won for a decade in the Republican romp in state offices in 2010.”

“GOP mapmakers were too good at their jobs to give the gavel back to Nancy.”

Moderate chance (4-6)

“I am genuinely worried that Mr. Obama has the resources and the personal juice to run my party into the ground—at least for the duration of his term.”

“The Republicans like to ‘help’ Democrats be successful by ‘purifying’ primaries, unelectable candidates, and off-the-wall positions like seeing the solution to every problem being cutting taxes.”

 

On a scale of zero (no chance) to 10 (virtual certainty), how likely are the Republicans to take over the Senate in 2014?

DEMOCRATS (100 votes)

Average: 3.25
Slight chance (0-3): 55%
Moderate chance (4-6): 39%
High chance (7-10): 6%

Slight chance (0-3)

“They will be lucky to save Mitch [McConnell], let alone take over the Senate.”

“The states are good for the GOP; their brand is not.”

“They have the numbers but not the politics for 2014.”

“Without a doubt, they have the money but lack credible messengers.”

“They have to know who they are before they can seek what they want. Which Republican Party?”

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