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Magazine / POLITICAL INSIDERS POLL

Republicans Say They Have Almost Even Odds of Taking Control of the Senate

February 21, 2013

On a scale of zero (no chance) to 10 (virtual certainty), how likely are the Democrats to take over the House in 2014?

DEMOCRATS (100 VOTES)

Average: 3.47
Slight chance (0-3): 53%
Moderate chance (4-6): 41%
High chance (7-10): 6%

Slight chance (0-3)

 

“There are not enough competitive districts.”

“The odds are very long, but if anyone can raise the [money] needed to give Democrats a chance, Nancy Pelosi can.”

“Two words: ‘gerry’ and ‘mander.’ ”

“Very difficult in a second midterm.”

“Due to the gerrymandering of the Republicans, there is virtually no chance at the House flipping. Time for a new Democratic leadership team? How ’bout someone under the age of 70?”

“The GOP has numbers, history, and super-PAC money on their side. Democrats have about as much chance of retaking the House as there is that another meteor will hit Russia.”

“It takes a wave election for the Democrats to win the House, and there hasn’t been a midterm [that went] that way for an incumbent president’s party since 1934.”

“Oh, to hope and wish, but the redistricting fix is in.”

Moderate chance (4-6)

“History says it won’t happen.”

“Right now, it is possible, and House Republicans are working hard to make Democratic House control a reality.”

“Democrats will need an unlikely perfect alignment of the stars, though it isn’t beyond Republicans to give an assist!”

“The ‘six-year-itch’ is overrated.”

“The public has increasingly had its fill of the nativistic, know-nothing party.”

“Unfortunately, we have too many uncompetitive districts. But the GOP view on immigration and guns might make it possible.”

High chance (7-10)

“Anger over general inaction, coupled with primary challenges from the right, can overcome a lot in a gerrymandered district.”

 

On a scale of zero (no chance) to 10 (virtual certainty), how likely are the Democrats to take over the House in 2014?

Republicans (91 VOTES)

Average: 2.2
Slight chance (0-3): 81%
Moderate chance (4-6): 19%
High chance (7-10): 0%

Slight chance (0-3)

“Forget it till next census.”

“The House Democrats have put themselves in difficult positions in “majority-maker” swing seats and won’t have an Obama operation to help them.”

“ ‘Obamacare’ costs begin kicking in this year.”

“Nothing is impossible. But, district by district, it is hard to see a path as of now.”

“Would require unprecedented popularity of a president and his party after six years in the White House.”

“Off year with a president pushing hard left? Come on.”

“Dems are paying for their insistence on uni-ethnic districts. In a closely divided nation, their method is madness.”

“Party in White House averages a 26-seat House loss in second-term midterm elections.”

“It would take quite the meltdown for a Democratic majority.”

“Gerrymandered maps can fall apart very quickly with a small falloff in base turnout—and the party may have to cut some tough deals on spending and immigration.”

“The House was won for a decade in the Republican romp in state offices in 2010.”

“GOP mapmakers were too good at their jobs to give the gavel back to Nancy.”

Moderate chance (4-6)

“I am genuinely worried that Mr. Obama has the resources and the personal juice to run my party into the ground—at least for the duration of his term.”

“The Republicans like to ‘help’ Democrats be successful by ‘purifying’ primaries, unelectable candidates, and off-the-wall positions like seeing the solution to every problem being cutting taxes.”

 

On a scale of zero (no chance) to 10 (virtual certainty), how likely are the Republicans to take over the Senate in 2014?

DEMOCRATS (100 votes)

Average: 3.25
Slight chance (0-3): 55%
Moderate chance (4-6): 39%
High chance (7-10): 6%

Slight chance (0-3)

“They will be lucky to save Mitch [McConnell], let alone take over the Senate.”

“The states are good for the GOP; their brand is not.”

“They have the numbers but not the politics for 2014.”

“Without a doubt, they have the money but lack credible messengers.”

“They have to know who they are before they can seek what they want. Which Republican Party?”

“The Republicans will continue to nominate right-wing candidates who will lose general elections in battleground states. Iowa will be the prime example, with Steve King.”

“It would take an economic collapse with a corresponding collapse in Obama’s numbers.”

“What persuadable voter wouldn’t be captured by Mitch McConnell’s captivating vision and image of the future!”

Moderate chance (4-6)

“I’d rank them higher, but with their track record on recruitment …”

“[The] ‘six-year itch’ may be overwhelmed by Republican civil war.”

“The numbers favor them in terms of seats D’s need to hold.”

“Better than even chance. Deciding factor will be who is most successful in their candidate recruitment efforts.”

High chance (7-10)

“They have the numbers, history, and super-PAC money in their favor. It is a trifecta that will be hard to beat.”

 

On a scale of zero (no chance) to 10 (virtual certainty), how likely are the Republicans to take over the Senate in 2014?

REPUBLICANS (92 votes)

Average: 4.75
Slight chance (0-3): 24%
Moderate chance (4-6): 62%
High chance (7-10): 14%

Slight chance (0-3)

“Great opportunities, but likely stumbles by candidates against a smart and disciplined White House political operation.”

“At the rate we are going, we will be lucky to maintain control of the House.”

“National Republican Senatorial Committee [is] outgunned by Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee.”

“Would need a major tailwind to bring along all of our inevitably weak nominees with foot-in-mouth disease.”

Moderate chance (4-6)

“The opportunity certainly is there … but it has been there before.”

“Some White House policy overreaches may put some red-state Democrats in tough positions.”

“Things looked really good last time, and we lost seats. It depends on the candidates. Hopefully, Karl Rove and his allies will be successful.”

“GOP has muffed two other shots at a majority, and a third shot probably tempts fate. Nevertheless, the red-state exposure is a serious problem for Democrats.”

High chance (7-10)

“Democrats will feel the fury of voters unhappy with implementation of ‘Obamacare’/higher taxes.”

“President Obama will have a bad midterm. It just depends on how bad.”

“[NRSC Chairman Jerry] Moran is talented, relentless, and underestimated—great combination.”

..........................

Democratic Political Insiders Jill Alper, John Anzalone, Brad Bannon, Dave Beattie, Andy Bechhoefer, Cornell Belcher, Matt Bennett, Mitchell W. Berger, Mike Berman, Stephanie Bosh, Paul Brathwaite, Donna Brazile, Mark Brewer, Ed Bruley, George Bruno, Bonnie Campbell, Bill Carrick, Guy Cecil, Martin J. Chavez, Tony Coelho, Larry Cohen, Jerry Crawford, Brendan Daly, Jeff Danielson, Peter Daou, Howard Dean, Scott DeFife, Jim Demers, Tad Devine, David Di Martino, Debbie Dingell, Monica Dixon, Patrick Dorton, Pat Dujakovich, Anita Dunn, Jeff Eller, Steve Elmendorf, Carter Eskew, Vic Fazio, Peter Fenn, Scott Ferson, Jim Fleischmann, Tina Flournoy, Don Foley, Jeffrey Forbes, Vincent Frillici, Gina Glantz, Niles Godes, John Michael Gonzalez, Joe Grandmaison, Anna Greenberg, Stan Greenberg, Pat Griffin, Larry Grisolano, Michael Gronstal, Lisa Grove, Marcia Hale, Jill Hanauer, Dick Harpootlian, Paul Harstad, Laura Hartigan, Doug Hattaway, Mike Henry, Karen Hicks, Leo Hindery Jr., Harold Ickes, Marcus Jadotte, John Jameson, Steve Jarding, Jonathon Jones, Jim Jordan, Gale Kaufman, Lisa Kountoupes, Celinda Lake, David Lang, Penny Lee, Chris Lehane, Jeff Link, Bob Maloney, Jim Manley, Steve Marchand, Jim Margolis, Paul Maslin, Keith Mason, Susan McCue, Gerald McEntee, Steve McMahon, Tom McMahon, Phil McNamara, David Medina, Michael Meehan, Mark Mellman, John Merrigan, Michael Monroe, Steve Murphy, Janet Napolitano, David Nassar, Marcia Nichols, John Norris, Tom Ochs, Tom O’Donnell, Jeffrey Peck, Debora Pignatelli, Tony Podesta, Jefrey Pollock, Jack Quinn, Larry Rasky, Mame Reiley, Ed Rendell, Steve Ricchetti, Will Robinson, Steve Rosenthal, David Rudd, Ryan Rudominer, John Ryan, Michael Sargeant, Stephanie Schriock, Terry Shumaker, Sean Sinclair, Phil Singer, Erik Smith, Doug Sosnik, Greg Speed, Darry Sragow, Ken Strasma, Doug Thornell, Jeffrey Trammell, Ed Turlington, Rick Wiener, James Williams, JoDee Winterhof, Brian Wolff, Jon Youngdahl, and Jim Zogby.

GOP Political Insiders Dan Allen, Stan Anderson, Gary Andres, Saulius (Saul) Anuzis, Rich Ashooh, Whit Ayres, Brett Bader, Mitch Bainwol, Brian Baker, Gary Bauer, David Beckwith, Paul Bennecke, Clark Benson, Wayne Berman, Brian Bieron, Charlie Black, Kirk Blalock, Carmine Boal, Jeff Boeyink, Ron Bonjean, Jeff Buley, Luke Byars, Nick Calio, Al Cardenas, Danny Carroll, Alex Castellanos, Ron Christie, Jim Cicconi, Jonathan Collegio, Rob Collins, Cesar Conda, Jake Corman, Scott Cottington, Jay Cranford, Greg Crist, Diane Crookham-Johnson, Fergus Cullen, Tom Davis, Mike Dennehy, Ken Duberstein, Debi Durham, Sara Fagen, Frank Fahrenkopf, John Feehery, Don Fierce, Mindy Finn, Carl Forti, Alex Gage, Bruce A. Gates, Sam Geduldig, Adam Geller, Benjamin Ginsberg, David Girard-diCarlo, Bill Greener, Jonathan Grella, Lanny Griffith, Janet Mullins Grissom, Doug Gross, Todd Harris, Steve Hart, Christopher Healy, Ralph Hellmann, Chris Henick, Terry Holt, David Iannelli, Ed Ingle, Jim Innocenzi, Clark Judge, David Keating, David Kensinger, Bob Kjellander, Ed Kutler, Chris LaCivita, Jim Lake, Steven Law, Steve Lombardo, Kevin Madden, Joel Maiola, Gary Maloney, David Marin, Mary Matalin, Dan Mattoon, Brian McCormack, Mark McKinnon, Kyle McSlarrow, Ken Mehlman, Jim Merrill, Lisa Camooso Miller, Tim Morrison, Mike Murphy, Phil Musser, Ron Nehring, Terry Nelson, Neil Newhouse, David Norcross, Ziad Ojakli, Jack Oliver, Todd Olsen, Kevin O’Neill, Connie Partoyan, Billy Piper, Van B. Poole, Tom Rath, Scott Reed, David Rehr, Tom Reynolds, Steve Roberts, Jason Roe, David Roederer, Dan Schnur, Russ Schriefer, Rich Schwarm, Brent Seaborn, Rick Shelby, Andrew Shore, Kevin Shuvalov, Don Sipple, Ken Spain, Fred Steeper, Bob Stevenson, Terry Sullivan, David Tamasi, Eric Tanenblatt, Richard Temple, Heath Thompson, Jay Timmons, Warren Tompkins, Ted Van Der Meid, Dirk van Dongen, Jan van Lohuizen, Stewart Verdery, Dick Wadhams, John Weaver, Lezlee Westine, Dave Winston, Ginny Wolfe, Fred Wszolek, and Matthew Zablud. 

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