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Poll: Which Senate Seats Are Likeliest to Flip? Poll: Which Senate Seats Are Likeliest to Flip? Poll: Which Senate Seats Are Likeliest to Flip? Poll: Which Senate Seats ...

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Magazine / POLITICAL INSIDERS POLL

Poll: Which Senate Seats Are Likeliest to Flip?

April 11, 2013

Which of the following retirements of current senators is most damaging to their respective party’s prospects?

DEMOCRATS (95 VOTES)

Saxby Chambliss, R-Ga.: 7%
Tom Harkin, D-Iowa: 10%
Tim Johnson, D-S.D.: 35%
Jay Rockefeller, D-W.Va.: 48%

Saxby Chambliss

 

“The GOP will put out a Richard Mourdock/Todd Akin clone and lose yet another winnable seat.”

“Red Georgia is ripe to go blue, especially with the lousy GOP field.”

Tom Harkin

“A for-sure keeper seat now up for grabs.”

“As a purple state, Iowa becomes a battleground that D’s will have a hard time holding in the off year. Not a great lead-in to the 2016 caucuses.”

Tim Johnson

“Iowa is salvageable; South Dakota is tough.”

“After a nearly 50-year run with McGovern/Daschle/Johnson, the seat almost assuredly going Republican makes South Dakota the ‘People’s Republic of South Dakota’—one party in absolute total control of the state.”

“Those big, empty, rectangular states are tough for us.”

Jay Rockefeller

“Rockefeller could have held his seat with his money advantage and his seniority in this small state that knows what seniority delivers. Hard to imagine any other Democrat keeping it.”

“Democrats have a weak bench in West Virginia compared to South Dakota and Iowa.”

“At least Johnson has some decent potential replacement candidates. West Virginia is about as Republican a state as it gets nowadays.”

“South Dakota was a goner, with or without Johnson. And Iowa is gettable. But West Virginia is lost now.”

“West Virginia is basically an Old South state that acts closer to Mississippi than Virginia.”

“Harry ‘Kill Coal’ Reid will cost his caucus this one.”

“Between the coal industry and the National Rife Association, West Virginia will be tough for Dems to hold.”

 

 

Which of the following retirements of current senators is most damaging to their respective party’s prospects?

REPUBLICANS (99 VOTES)

Saxby Chambliss, R-Ga.: 8%
Tom Harkin, D-Iowa: 14%
Tim Johnson, D-S.D.: 39%
Jay Rockefeller, D-W.Va.: 39%

Saxby Chambliss

“Paul Broun, aka ‘the guy who makes Todd Akin look good,’ will cost us a Senate seat.”

“The Republicans could very well screw this up with a terrible candidate.”

Tom Harkin

“If Dems lose the seat in Iowa, hard to see them keeping a majority, given the other seats they have to defend.”

“The purplest of purple means the TV stations in Iowa will rake in the cash in 2014.”

Tim Johnson

“Johnson’s retirement all but ensures this seat will flip to the Republicans in the 2014 election cycle.”

“Two solid Republican candidates against Washington lawyer-lobbyist Stephanie Herseth [Sandlin] or a Johnson family member with a sense of entitlement.”

“South Dakota is ripe for a pickup and has a decent bench of GOP candidates.”

“Seat should remain Republican forever.”

“Johnson’s retirement is as good an opportunity the GOP will get to win the majority.”

Jay Rockefeller

“Hard to see someone taking on Shelley Moore Capito, who has been ruthless in waiting for the right chance to come to the Senate.”

“The West Virginia move is more significant long term, because West Virginia will follow Arkansas and Oklahoma as former Southern Dem strongholds that move permanently into the Republican camp.”

“His retirement exposes an empty bench.”

“As long as we refrain from screwing this up internally, Shelley Capito is the next senator from West Virginia, in a walk.”

“Democrats have turned their backs on West Virginians, particularly on the issue of coal. This is a GOP pickup.”

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Democratic Political Insiders Jill Alper, John Anzalone, Brad Bannon, Dave Beattie, Andy Bechhoefer, Cornell Belcher, Matt Bennett, Mitchell W. Berger, Mike Berman, Stephanie Bosh, Paul Brathwaite, Donna Brazile, Mark Brewer, Ed Bruley, George Bruno, Bonnie Campbell, Bill Carrick, Guy Cecil, Martin J. Chavez, Tony Coelho, Larry Cohen, Jerry Crawford, Brendan Daly, Jeff Danielson, Peter Daou, Howard Dean, Scott DeFife, Jim Demers, Tad Devine, David Di Martino, Debbie Dingell, Monica Dixon, Patrick Dorton, Pat Dujakovich, Anita Dunn, Jeff Eller, Steve Elmendorf, Carter Eskew, Vic Fazio, Peter Fenn, Scott Ferson, Jim Fleischmann, Tina Flournoy, Don Foley, Jeffrey Forbes, Vincent Frillici, Gina Glantz, Niles Godes, John Michael Gonzalez, Joe Grandmaison, Anna Greenberg, Stan Greenberg, Pat Griffin, Larry Grisolano, Michael Gronstal, Lisa Grove, Marcia Hale, Jill Hanauer, Dick Harpootlian, Paul Harstad, Laura Hartigan, Doug Hattaway, Mike Henry, Karen Hicks, Leo Hindery Jr., Harold Ickes, Marcus Jadotte, John Jameson, Steve Jarding, Jonathon Jones, Jim Jordan, Gale Kaufman, Lisa Kountoupes, Celinda Lake, David Lang, Penny Lee, Chris Lehane, Jeff Link, Bob Maloney, Jim Manley, Steve Marchand, Jim Margolis, Paul Maslin, Keith Mason, Susan McCue, Gerald McEntee, Steve McMahon, Tom McMahon, Phil McNamara, David Medina, Michael Meehan, Mark Mellman, John Merrigan, Michael Monroe, Steve Murphy, Janet Napolitano, David Nassar, Marcia Nichols, John Norris, Tom Ochs, Tom O’Donnell, Jeffrey Peck, Debora Pignatelli, Tony Podesta, Jefrey Pollock, Jack Quinn, Larry Rasky, Mame Reiley, Ed Rendell, Steve Ricchetti, Will Robinson, Steve Rosenthal, David Rudd, Ryan Rudominer, John Ryan, Michael Sargeant, Stephanie Schriock, Terry Shumaker, Sean Sinclair, Phil Singer, Erik Smith, Doug Sosnik, Greg Speed, Darry Sragow, Ken Strasma, Doug Thornell, Jeffrey Trammell, Ed Turlington, Rick Wiener, James Williams, JoDee Winterhof, Brian Wolff, Jon Youngdahl, and Jim Zogby.

GOP Political Insiders Dan Allen, Stan Anderson, Gary Andres, Saulius (Saul) Anuzis, Rich Ashooh, Whit Ayres, Brett Bader, Mitch Bainwol, Brian Baker, Gary Bauer, David Beckwith, Paul Bennecke, Clark Benson, Wayne Berman, Brian Bieron, Charlie Black, Kirk Blalock, Carmine Boal, Jeff Boeyink, Ron Bonjean, Jeff Buley, Luke Byars, Nick Calio, Al Cardenas, Danny Carroll, Alex Castellanos, Ron Christie, Jim Cicconi, Jonathan Collegio, Rob Collins, Cesar Conda, Jake Corman, Scott Cottington, Jay Cranford, Greg Crist, Diane Crookham-Johnson, Fergus Cullen, Tom Davis, Mike Dennehy, Ken Duberstein, Debi Durham, Sara Fagen, Frank Fahrenkopf, John Feehery, Don Fierce, Mindy Finn, Carl Forti, Alex Gage, Bruce A. Gates, Sam Geduldig, Adam Geller, Benjamin Ginsberg, David Girard-diCarlo, Bill Greener, Jonathan Grella, Lanny Griffith, Janet Mullins Grissom, Doug Gross, Todd Harris, Steve Hart, Christopher Healy, Ralph Hellmann, Chris Henick, Terry Holt, David Iannelli, Ed Ingle, Jim Innocenzi, Clark Judge, David Keating, David Kensinger, Bob Kjellander, Ed Kutler, Chris LaCivita, Jim Lake, Steven Law, Steve Lombardo, Kevin Madden, Joel Maiola, Gary Maloney, David Marin, Mary Matalin, Dan Mattoon, Brian McCormack, Mark McKinnon, Kyle McSlarrow, Ken Mehlman, Jim Merrill, Lisa Camooso Miller, Tim Morrison, Mike Murphy, Phil Musser, Ron Nehring, Terry Nelson, Neil Newhouse, David Norcross, Ziad Ojakli, Jack Oliver, Todd Olsen, Kevin O’Neill, Connie Partoyan, Billy Piper, Van B. Poole, Tom Rath, Scott Reed, David Rehr, Tom Reynolds, Steve Roberts, Jason Roe, David Roederer, Dan Schnur, Russ Schriefer, Rich Schwarm, Brent Seaborn, Rick Shelby, Andrew Shore, Kevin Shuvalov, Don Sipple, Ken Spain, Fred Steeper, Bob Stevenson, Terry Sullivan, David Tamasi, Eric Tanenblatt, Richard Temple, Heath Thompson, Jay Timmons, Warren Tompkins, Ted Van Der Meid, Dirk van Dongen, Jan van Lohuizen, Stewart Verdery, Dick Wadhams, John Weaver, Lezlee Westine, Dave Winston, Ginny Wolfe, Fred Wszolek, and Matthew Zablud.

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