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Political Insiders Poll: Will Republicans Take Over the Senate? Political Insiders Poll: Will Republicans Take Over the Senate?

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Political Insiders Poll

Political Insiders Poll: Will Republicans Take Over the Senate?

Will Republicans Take over the Senate?

On a scale of zero (no chance) to 10 (virtual certainty), how likely are the Republicans to take over the Senate next November?

Democrats (104 votes)

Average: 5.0

 

 Zero: 2%
1 to 3: 18%
4 to 6: 59%
7 to 10: 21%

0. “I think Republicans will prove incapable of convincing voters that playing around with Social Security and Medicare is a good thing and we should elect more Republicans to do just that.”

2. “The Republican tea party is a house divided, which wants to destroy Medicare at the expense of tax breaks for the rich. How does that package win?”

 

3. “Despite the Democrats having to defend so many seats in tough states for them, the Obama turnout will be sufficient to keep the Senate in Democratic hands.”

4. “Chances will immeasurably improve for Democrats if Republicans continue to nominate loopy tea party activists.”

4. “Democrats have a slight edge at this point due to improving economic conditions, as soon as gas prices correct.”

4. “As Obama goes, so goes the Senate, and with this Republican field, it looks like he’s going to live in D.C. until 2017.”

 

5. “The number of Democratic seats in play favor the Republicans’ chances of winning control, though this must be tempered by their mediocre presidential-candidate field at this point.”

5. “Senate Ds will put Arizona, Indiana, and Massachusetts seats in play to help give them cover for losses elsewhere.”

5. “The map gives the Republicans a real chance, but it’s still a challenge if Obama is reelected.”

5.5 “When you are recruiting well, that is a sign that the political environment has improved, and the [Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee] has landed some blue-chip recruits. But the map is still tough for Democrats.”

6. “Last year the math worked to our favor, but next year [there are] too many seats for Dems to defend.”

7. “It would be ‘10,’ but the Republicans seem to want to hand them the Medicare issue.”

7. “Democrats are running behind the curve in the Senate, given the retirements, and are poised to lose unless they overwhelm the Rs with solid candidates.”

8. “This looks bad, unless there’s an outbreak of ‘macaca’ disease.”

10. “High unemployment and gas prices will really hurt the D’s, not to mention a slew of Senate incumbents up for reelection inred-pink states.”

 

On a scale of zero (no chance) to 10 (virtual certainty), how likely are the Republicans to take over the Senate next November?

Republicans (103 votes)

Average: 6.7

Zero: 0%
1 to 3: 2%
4 to 6: 41%
7 to 10: 57%

4. “If the political environment stays the same, the election-year play may be to push the ‘check and balance’ by electing Republicans in the House and Senate.”

5. “The deck is stacked in our favor, but I fear we are losing sight of what worked so well last cycle—courting and winning independents.”

5. “Like ’06, it comes down to Virginia: Senate [control] will come down to a field goal on the last play of the game, to use a George Allen sports analogy.”

5. “Too early to tell, but both sides have plenty of time to shoot themselves in the foot. Democrats have more open seats, but Republicans could see safe senators bumped off by offbeat primary challengers.”

6. “Democrats have too many seats to defend, and many voters prefer split government.”

6. “The playing field is slanted, but the presidential race is key.”

6. “DSCC has done a better job shoring up shaky incumbents. Lot of work needed, but numbers favor GOP.”

6. “The Senate is tougher for Republicans than the conventional wisdom says, but it more than likely it will happen.”

6. “Things couldn’t look better right now, but Republicans are entirely capable of overreaching.”

7. “The fourth seat gets more difficult to achieve, but the tea leaves read pretty good now.”

7. “With Nevada and Massachusetts looking safe, the only change in the Senate will come in Dem-held states. Nebraska and North Dakota are already gone, and that is halfway to the goal of picking up [control].”

7. “A Republican Senate majority is certainly possible, but disastrous candidates like [Christine] O’Donnell and [Sharron] Angle could sink that possibility again, just like it did in 2010.”

8. “Republicans look strong even if their presidential candidate falters—unless he or she is a total disaster.”

8. “Only an Obama landslide can endanger this.”

8. “It’s a target-rich environment for GOP: Missouri, Virginia, North Dakota, West Virginia, Florida, Nebraska, Montana, just to name a tempting few.”

This article appears in the May 14, 2011 edition of National Journal Magazine.

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