“Like Reagan in 1986, the White House is going to have a tough time trying to resist political inertia, which tends to balance swing elections.”
“I would’ve said 5 [instead of 8] until Obama lost Brooklyn and Queens.”
“It will be 2010, only bigger. The D’s (and especially the White House team) are clueless about the country. They are our best campaigners.”
“It’s no longer a question of GOP control. The remaining issue is how large the GOP majority will be.”
“Last thing Dems want is a ‘send Obama a message’ election. But they’ve got one.”
“It’s hunting season, and the Democrats look like a lumbering 12-point buck.”
On a scale of 0 (no chance) to 10 (virtual certainty), how likely are the Democrats to take over the House next November?
Democrats (102 votes)
Sept. 2011
Average: 3.8
Low (0-3): 47%
Moderate (4-6): 50%
High (7-10): 5%
May 2011
Average: 4.3
Low (0-3): 33%
Moderate (4-6): 53%
High (7-10): 15%
Low (0-3)
“We’ll be lucky to be able to hold a caucus.”
“What does the House stand for? Jobs? What jobs? Health care? What health care? Tax the rich? What tax on the rich? These guys have no identity and no track record. It is a deadly combination.”
“Redistricting helps a little, but the president’s numbers, especially in swing districts, doom Dems.”
“Toxic environment for incumbents will help Dems close the gap, but there are too many seats to make up.”
“Tough to do when the White House says, ‘You’re part of the problem.’ ”
Moderate (4-6)
“Debt ceiling and other factors have sullied the Republican House. American voters can’t get down with so many House members dancing to the tune of a radical minority (the tea party).”
“House Republicans have done everything imaginable to put the House in play in less than a year. They are highly unpopular and so are their policies. Dems need to find 80 capable challengers to have a better than 50 percent chance of winning. They aren’t there yet.”
“It’s a 50-50 proposition. The American people are mad and may throw everyone out.”
“Need to win 25 seats—that’s a lot, especially when the president will struggle at the top of the ticket. But it’s a volatile electorate, and the R’s in the House have done nothing about the economy, so voters are angry and may vote out incumbents in droves.”
High (7-10)
“Tea party radicals are showing their true colors to moderate voters in marginal districts. Bad news for the House GOPers.”
On a scale of 0 (no chance) to 10 (virtual certainty), how likely are the Democrats to take over the House next November?
Republicans (111 votes)
Sept. 2011
Average: 1.8
Low (0-3): 92%
Moderate (4-6): 9%
High (7-10): 0%
May 2011
Average: 2.3
Low (0-3): 82%
Moderate (4-6): 21%
High (7-10): 0%
Low (0-3)
“Anyone who believes the D’s will win should be searched for a controlled substance.”
“Loss of Weiner seat tells me there is less than a zero chance of Dems retaking the House.”
“Redistricting, the poor economy, and the president’s astonishing disapproval ratings all create the perfect storm to assist Republicans in House races.”
“Over 190 seats are already safe through GOP control of redistricting. With Obama at the top of the ticket, [the chance of] Dem control is nil.”
“President Obama will have nothing positive to run on, which will leave the Dem House candidates out there naked.”
“How do you tell voters that R’s are the problem when your own president can’t seem to jump-start anything?”
“Obama is a severe drag, especially in GOP-redistricted seats. Max net Dem gain of 10; they might even lose ground.”
“NY-09 is to 2012 what Scott Brown, Chris Christie, and Bob McDonnell were to 2010. Republicans will lose very few seats.”
“Turnout among minority groups and the young will be down sharply from 2008 levels.”
“A dozen R’s from swing seats are going to pay for their courage, but not enough to put Pelosi back in charge.”
Leave A Comment