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Magazine / POLITICAL INSIDERS POLL

Political Insiders Poll

February 2, 2012

On a scale of 0 (no chance) to 10 (virtual certainty), how likely are the Republicans to take over the Senate in November?

Democrats (101 votes)

February 2012
Average: 5.2

Low (0-3): 16%
Moderate (4-6): 62%
High (7-10): 23%

 

 

September 2011
Average: 5.6

Low (0-3): 11%
Moderate (4-6): 61%
High (7-10): 30%

 

May 2011
Average: 5.0

Low (0-3): 20%
Moderate (4-6): 59%
High (7-10): 21%


Low (0-3)

“Democrats will pick up Nevada and Massachusetts (and possibly Arizona), making the threshold even higher for control. All Democratic incumbents are leading their challengers in the polls. While everyone else is focused on the presidential, the real story is that Dems quietly gained strength in the Senate in 2011.”

“The Democrats’ Year of the Women will see Elizabeth Warren, Tammy Baldwin, Shelley Berkley, and Claire McCaskill all pull out victories.”

Moderate (4-6)

“Smart recruiting by the Dems, plus an improving economy, make it a bit harder on the Republicans to take control.”

“What was a near certainty not long ago is much less so today. Most Senate races will be national races, and the national scene is shifting away from the GOP.”

“Getting four could be tough. Nebraska and North Dakota should be layups for the Republicans, but with a strong Democrat in North Dakota and Kerrey potentially running in Nebraska, Democrats suddenly look competitive where we used to look dead. Missouri and Montana look better, and Scott Brown looks really, really scared.”

“Too much defense needs to be played on the D side, but the president’s reelection should help in several states.”

“The raw numbers say yes. A look at individual races says maybe not. Hard to know whether the macro- or micro-perspective is more appropriate right now.”

High (7-10)

“Hate to admit it, but Ben Nelson’s retirement hurts big-time.”

“Deck still stacked in GOP’s favor. Dems must have the ‘Three Amigas’—Warren, Baldwin, and Berkley—all win.”

“Two words: Citizens United. Obama can likely compete with the hundreds of millions this cynical decision will dump into a campaign against him. The Senate and House candidates cannot.”

 

On a scale of 0 (no chance) to 10 (virtual certainty), how likely are the Republicans to take over the Senate in November?

Republicans (99 votes)

February 2012
Average: 6.9

Low (0-3): 1%
Moderate (4-6): 32%
High (7-10): 66%

 

September 2011
Average: 7.4

Low (0-3): 1%
Moderate (4-6): 22%
High (7-10): 79%

 

May 2011
Average: 6.7

Low (0-3): 2%
Moderate (4-6): 41%
High (7-10): 57%

 

Low (0-3)

“It never was better than 50-50, and now the climate is changing for the worse for Republicans.”

Moderate (4-6)

“Four seats in any environment is a tall order, but with an incumbent president spending several hundred million turning out liberals, we will have to be close to perfect in every winnable race.”

“A takeover was once a probability, but the candidate recruitment class is pretty weak.”

“Not as good as our chances were last June. [Scott] Brown looks like a goner in Massachusetts, [Dean] Heller could fall in Nevada, if the Obama/Reid machine turns out in force. We seem to be mailing in Pennsylvania where we should have a top-tier candidate but don’t, and Ohio is underperforming.”

High (7-10)

“The Democrats will have to battle on too many fronts.”

“Republicans start with a huge lead in terms of opportunity. But primaries and weak fundraising could take some of those opportunities off the table by the fall.”

“Only a possible presidential fiasco is holding us back.”

“It’s hard to imagine the GOP screwing the pooch on this one, but it’s a long time between now and November.”

“Twenty-three seats is a lot to put in play. Ultimately there is a price in politics for everything, even victories.”

“Nothing to show right now that Democrats can hold those seats. Comes down to each state, however. By the way, anyone seen Harry Reid on national TV lately?”

“Incumbents in competitive states retiring, bad political climate for Democrats, and far more Dem seats to defend than Republicans. Not looking good for Harry Reid. Say hello to Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer.”

 

On a scale of 0 (no chance) to 10 (virtual certainty), how likely are the Democrats to take over the House in November?

Democrats (101 votes)

February 2012
Average: 4.0

Low (0-3): 36%
Moderate (4-6): 56%
High (7-10): 9%

 

September 2011
Average: 3.8

Low (0-3): 47%
Moderate (4-6): 50%
High (7-10): 5%

 

May 2011
Average: 4.3

Low (0-3): 33%
Moderate (4-6): 53%
High (7-10): 15%

 

Low (0-3)

“It would require overwhelming anti-everyone sentiment.”

“An improving economy and a number of weak Republican freshmen will lead to small Democratic gains, though it would take a landslide Obama win for Democrats to even have a chance at reclaiming the House.”

“The Obama turnout will wipe out 25 House Republicans but not enough to take back the House. [John] Boehner will have an easier caucus.”

“Hope springs eternal, but that’s a lot of hope.”

Moderate (4-6)

“Possible but still tough. We need an uptick in the economy and more tea party nonsense.”

“Redistricting hurts in critical states.”

“Congress is despised, but House Dems need more concrete points to pull people back into the fold.”

“Anti-incumbent year helps Dems, but 25 seats to make up. Final redistricting decisions could be a game changer or lead to GOP retention.”

“Boehner, [Eric] Cantor, [Paul] Ryan, and the presidential mishmash have branded the GOP badly. In the ultimate irony, they probably need the economic improvement that will reelect Obama to cause their survival.”

“Do the math. Everybody hates Congress, and most House members are  Republicans.”

High (7-10)

 “A number of polls have shown that the House is in play. The issues favor the Democrats, as Republicans will be forced to defend their relentless protection of the superrich at the expense of Medicare for seniors. Many tea party Republicans won in Democratic-leaning districts in 2010, and those districts will be difficult to defend in a presidential year.”

 

On a scale of 0 (no chance) to 10 (virtual certainty), how likely are the Democrats to take over the House in November?

Republicans (99 votes)

February 2012
Average: 2.1

Low (0-3): 89%
Moderate (4-6): 9%
High (7-10): 1%

 

September 2011
Average: 1.8

Low (0-3): 92%
Moderate (4-6): 9%
High (7-10): 0%

 

May 2011
Average: 2.3

Low (0-3): 82%
Moderate (4-6): 21%
High (7-10): 0%

 

Low (0-3)

“No way, not gonna happen.”

“Very few states like Illinois, where they have pickup opportunities.”

“ ‘Occupy,’ class warfare, and an incoherent agenda will doom the Democrats’ ability to reclaim the House.”

“House GOP should always be looking over its shoulder simply because this electorate is so volatile. Take nothing for granted. That said, House Dems simply lack the message to pull this off.”

“Redistricting was well-timed to shore up seats we would otherwise lose in the high turnout of a presidential cycle.”

“Even though House Republicans blew themselves up in last year’s payroll debacle and are getting whupped by the Dems in fundraising, the Democrats won’t get the wave they need to get the majority back.”

“Assuming no screwup on payroll-tax relief, and no Obama blowout, the House is pretty securely in Republican control.”

“Perhaps it’s wrong to be this confident without looking at each individual circumstance, but I don’t think voters will blame freshman minority members for the nation’s wrong track.”

Moderate (4-6)

“A disastrous presidential campaign could cost the GOP the House.”

“Chances are growing the last six months. R’s need to buckle down and pass a lot of productive stuff, then blame Obama/Reid for holding it up in the Senate. But today, there’s not a good enough record to run on in an anti-incumbent climate.”

High (7-10)

“House GOP must change the debate and start playing offense.”

______________

Democratic Political Insiders Jill Alper, John Anzalone, Brad Bannon, Dave Beattie, Andy Bechhoefer, Cornell Belcher, Matt Bennett, Mitchell W. Berger, Mike Berman, Stephanie Bosh, Paul Brathwaite, Donna Brazile, Mark Brewer, Ed Bruley, George Bruno, Bonnie Campbell, Bill Carrick, Guy Cecil, Martin J. Chavez, Tony Coelho, Larry Cohen, Jerry Crawford, Brendan Daly, Jeff Danielson, Peter Daou, Howard Dean, Scott DeFife, Jim Demers, Tad Devine, David Di Martino, Debbie Dingell, Monica Dixon, Patrick Dorton, Pat Dujakovich, Anita Dunn, Jeff Eller, Steve Elmendorf, Carter Eskew, Vic Fazio, Peter Fenn, Scott Ferson, Jim Fleischmann, Tina Flournoy, Don Foley, Jeffrey Forbes, Vincent Frillici, Gina Glantz, Niles Godes, John Michael Gonzalez, Joe Grandmaison, Anna Greenberg, Stan Greenberg, Pat Griffin, Larry Grisolano, Michael Gronstal, Lisa Grove, Marcia Hale, Jill Hanauer, Dick Harpootlian, Paul Harstad, Laura Hartigan, Doug Hattaway, Mike Henry, Karen Hicks, Leo Hindery Jr., Harold Ickes, Marcus Jadotte, John Jameson, Steve Jarding, Jonathon Jones, Jim Jordan, Gale Kaufman, Lisa Kountoupes, Celinda Lake, David Lang, Penny Lee, Chris Lehane, Jeff Link, Bob Maloney, Jim Manley, Steve Marchand, Jim Margolis, Paul Maslin, Keith Mason, Susan McCue, Gerald McEntee, Steve McMahon, Tom McMahon, Phil McNamara, David Medina, Michael Meehan, Mark Mellman, John Merrigan, Michael Monroe, Steve Murphy, Janet Napolitano, David Nassar, Marcia Nichols, John Norris, Tom Ochs, Tom O’Donnell, Jeffrey Peck, Debora Pignatelli, Tony Podesta, Jefrey Pollock, Jack Quinn, Larry Rasky, Mame Reiley, Ed Rendell, Steve Ricchetti, Will Robinson, Steve Rosenthal, David Rudd, Ryan Rudominer, John Ryan, Michael Sargeant, Stephanie Schriock, Terry Shumaker, Sean Sinclair, Phil Singer, Erik Smith, Doug Sosnik, Greg Speed, Darry Sragow, Ken Strasma, Doug Thornell, Jeffrey Trammell, Ed Turlington, Rick Wiener, James Williams, JoDee Winterhof, Brian Wolff, Jon Youngdahl, and Jim Zogby.

GOP Political Insiders Dan Allen, Stan Anderson, Gary Andres, Saulius (Saul) Anuzis, Rich Ashooh, Whit Ayres, Brett Bader, Mitch Bainwol, Brian Baker, Gary Bauer, David Beckwith, Paul Bennecke, Clark Benson, Wayne Berman, Brian Bieron, Charlie Black, Kirk Blalock, Carmine Boal, Jeff Boeyink, Ron Bonjean, Jeff Buley, Luke Byars, Nick Calio, Al Cardenas, Danny Carroll, Alex Castellanos, Ron Christie, Jim Cicconi, Jonathan Collegio, Rob Collins, Cesar Conda, Jake Corman, Scott Cottington, Jay Cranford, Greg Crist, Diane Crookham-Johnson, Fergus Cullen, Tom Davis, Mike Dennehy, Ken Duberstein, Debi Durham, Sara Fagen, Frank Fahrenkopf, John Feehery, Don Fierce, Mindy Finn, Mindy Fletcher, Carl Forti, Alex Gage, Bruce A. Gates, Sam Geduldig, Adam Geller, Benjamin Ginsberg, David Girard-diCarlo, Bill Greener, Jonathan Grella, Lanny Griffith, Janet Mullins Grissom, Doug Gross, Todd Harris, Steve Hart, Christopher Healy, Ralph Hellmann, Chris Henick, Terry Holt, David Iannelli, Ed Ingle, Jim Innocenzi, Clark Judge, David Keating, David Kensinger, Bob Kjellander, Ed Kutler, Chris LaCivita, Jim Lake, Steven Law, Steve Lombardo, Kevin Madden, Joel Maiola, Gary Maloney, David Marin, Mary Matalin, Dan Mattoon, Brian McCormack, Mark McKinnon, Kyle McSlarrow, Ken Mehlman, Jim Merrill, Lisa Camooso Miller, Tim Morrison, Mike Murphy, Phil Musser, Ron Nehring, Terry Nelson, Neil Newhouse, David Norcross, Ziad Ojakli, Jack Oliver, Todd Olsen, Kevin O’Neill, Connie Partoyan, Billy Piper, Van B. Poole, Tom Rath, Scott Reed, David Rehr, Tom Reynolds, Steve Roberts, Jason Roe, David Roederer, Dan Schnur, Russ Schriefer, Rich Schwarm, Brent Seaborn, Rick Shelby, Andrew Shore, Kevin Shuvalov, Don Sipple, Ken Spain, Fred Steeper, Bob Stevenson, Terry Sullivan, David Tamasi, Eric Tanenblatt, Richard Temple, Heath Thompson, Jay Timmons, Warren Tompkins, Ted Van Der Meid, Dirk van Dongen, Jan van Lohuizen, Stewart Verdery, Dick Wadhams, John Weaver, Lezlee Westine, Dave Winston, Ginny Wolfe, Fred Wszolek, and Matthew Zablud.

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