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Political Insiders Poll

Which Republican presidential candidate will win the Iowa caucuses on Jan. 3?

Democrats (105 votes)

Michele Bachmann: 0%
Newt Gingrich: 62%
Jon Huntsman: 1%
Ron Paul: 30%
Rick Perry: 2%
Mitt Romney: 5%
Rick Santorum: 0%



“The importance of field organizing in Iowa has diminished dramatically in the last three cycles. It’s about momentum, and Newt has it.”

“Organization matters less than ever in a world of media-driven personality. The more he is the outsider, the more attractive he is to some of the angriest voters in the electorate.”


“Organization can make the difference when all other things are equal, but they’re not: Republicans are looking for a true conservative, someone who can channel their utter contempt for President Obama, and Mitt ain’t it.”

“Newt’s timing has been perfect for Iowa, but the withering attacks will impede his future progress.”

“Newt will win, and with [that] the Republican Party will be totally exposed. Careful what the tea party folks wish for.”

“I’m willing to bet $10,000—that’s how confident I am in Newt!”


“This couldn’t make me happier.”

“Do you believe in Santa Claus? Newt winning Iowa was less believable than Santa Claus just a few months ago.”


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“Best for Romney: Romney wins. Almost as good: Ron Paul wins.”

“Paul’s support is steadier than the other candidates, and conservatives (Santorum, Bachmann, Perry) will take some of Gingrich’s support.”

“Honestly, who knows? But Ron Paul seems like the candidate with the most loyal, identifiable base. With Ron Paul, it is hard to be disillusioned—he is what he is, and that’s more than you can say about most of the other candidates.”

“Paul is the only candidate with the infrastructure to maximize the organic support he has generated.”


“ ‘Winning’ Iowa means exceeding expectations, not necessarily finishing first. Romney is playing catch-up but never intended to start his dominoes in Iowa.”


Which Republican presidential candidate will win the Iowa caucuses on Jan. 3?

Republicans (105 votes)

Michele Bachmann: 3%
Newt Gingrich: 60%
Jon Huntsman: 0%
Ron Paul: 30%
Rick Perry: 2%
Mitt Romney: 4%
Rick Santorum: 1%


“The big swings are done, and the field is likely locked. Newt stepped in at the right time to secure much of the Cain fallout while Romney fiddled elsewhere and cost himself dearly.”

“Very close, but he ekes it out. The negative assault on him between now and then cuts dramatically into his margins.”

“Newt is peaking at just the right time.”

“Romney’s inability to expand his vote share no matter how many competitors blow themselves up leads to the election of the candidate who holds the record for self-immolation. Wow.”

“Right now, Gingrich is riding on raw energy, and that will put him over the top in Iowa, but it probably won’t sustain him through New Hampshire and South Carolina.”

“Consider it Newt’s last hurrah. [Pat] Robertson won in 1988.”

“It will be the last election he wins.”


“Paul marries passion with organization. His folks will turn out no matter what.”

“Organization and unflagging passion will conspire to take this needed launching pad out from under Gingrich.”

“Yes, Ron Paul. Which would further destroy any claim Iowa has for prescience in picking a nominee.”

“Paul’s zealots will brave wind, snow, and rain to back their man. Newt a close second.”


“When Humpty-Dumpty (Newt) has a big fall, Perry will get the votes, not Ron Paul.”


“Newt’s lack of a ground game will be his downfall.”


Which Republican presidential candidate will win the GOP nomination in 2012?

Democrats (101 votes)

Michele Bachmann: 0%
Newt Gingrich: 23%
Jon Huntsman: 1%
Ron Paul: 1%
Rick Perry: 2%
Mitt Romney: 71%
Rick Santorum: 0%
Other: 2%


“Newt has to like the map right now. Insiders are counting on him to mess up, and that is no strategy to beat him.”

This article appears in the December 17, 2011 edition of National Journal Magazine.

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