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Political Insiders Poll

December 15, 2011

Which Republican presidential candidate will win the Iowa caucuses on Jan. 3?

Democrats (105 votes)

Michele Bachmann: 0%
Newt Gingrich: 62%
Jon Huntsman: 1%
Ron Paul: 30%
Rick Perry: 2%
Mitt Romney: 5%
Rick Santorum: 0%



“The importance of field organizing in Iowa has diminished dramatically in the last three cycles. It’s about momentum, and Newt has it.”

“Organization matters less than ever in a world of media-driven personality. The more he is the outsider, the more attractive he is to some of the angriest voters in the electorate.”

“Organization can make the difference when all other things are equal, but they’re not: Republicans are looking for a true conservative, someone who can channel their utter contempt for President Obama, and Mitt ain’t it.”

“Newt’s timing has been perfect for Iowa, but the withering attacks will impede his future progress.”

“Newt will win, and with [that] the Republican Party will be totally exposed. Careful what the tea party folks wish for.”

“I’m willing to bet $10,000—that’s how confident I am in Newt!”

“This couldn’t make me happier.”

“Do you believe in Santa Claus? Newt winning Iowa was less believable than Santa Claus just a few months ago.”


“Best for Romney: Romney wins. Almost as good: Ron Paul wins.”

“Paul’s support is steadier than the other candidates, and conservatives (Santorum, Bachmann, Perry) will take some of Gingrich’s support.”

“Honestly, who knows? But Ron Paul seems like the candidate with the most loyal, identifiable base. With Ron Paul, it is hard to be disillusioned—he is what he is, and that’s more than you can say about most of the other candidates.”

“Paul is the only candidate with the infrastructure to maximize the organic support he has generated.”


“ ‘Winning’ Iowa means exceeding expectations, not necessarily finishing first. Romney is playing catch-up but never intended to start his dominoes in Iowa.”


Which Republican presidential candidate will win the Iowa caucuses on Jan. 3?

Republicans (105 votes)

Michele Bachmann: 3%
Newt Gingrich: 60%
Jon Huntsman: 0%
Ron Paul: 30%
Rick Perry: 2%
Mitt Romney: 4%
Rick Santorum: 1%


“The big swings are done, and the field is likely locked. Newt stepped in at the right time to secure much of the Cain fallout while Romney fiddled elsewhere and cost himself dearly.”

“Very close, but he ekes it out. The negative assault on him between now and then cuts dramatically into his margins.”

“Newt is peaking at just the right time.”

“Romney’s inability to expand his vote share no matter how many competitors blow themselves up leads to the election of the candidate who holds the record for self-immolation. Wow.”

“Right now, Gingrich is riding on raw energy, and that will put him over the top in Iowa, but it probably won’t sustain him through New Hampshire and South Carolina.”

“Consider it Newt’s last hurrah. [Pat] Robertson won in 1988.”

“It will be the last election he wins.”


“Paul marries passion with organization. His folks will turn out no matter what.”

“Organization and unflagging passion will conspire to take this needed launching pad out from under Gingrich.”

“Yes, Ron Paul. Which would further destroy any claim Iowa has for prescience in picking a nominee.”

“Paul’s zealots will brave wind, snow, and rain to back their man. Newt a close second.”


“When Humpty-Dumpty (Newt) has a big fall, Perry will get the votes, not Ron Paul.”


“Newt’s lack of a ground game will be his downfall.”


Which Republican presidential candidate will win the GOP nomination in 2012?

Democrats (101 votes)

Michele Bachmann: 0%
Newt Gingrich: 23%
Jon Huntsman: 1%
Ron Paul: 1%
Rick Perry: 2%
Mitt Romney: 71%
Rick Santorum: 0%
Other: 2%


“Newt has to like the map right now. Insiders are counting on him to mess up, and that is no strategy to beat him.”

“If his past doesn’t catch up to him before the momentum takes over, he could limp out of the convention with the prize.”

“The Giuliani strategy of waiting until later to win won’t work any better for Mitt than it did for Rudy.”


“This is a tough call. But Romney wins in a drawn-out and protracted cross-country struggle with Gingrich.”

“Newt may win Iowa and South Carolina, but Romney has an opportunity in Florida and New Hampshire to build the electability argument he needs to win over some critics.”

“I still go with Romney, because most of the alternatives are so scary to critical masses of Republicans. Ron Paul will also end up being, unwittingly, a big help to Romney before this is over.”

“If Paul wins Iowa, the Gingrich train will quickly slide off the rails and clear the path for Romney.”

“The national media will have a feeding frenzy once Newt wins Iowa. It will throw the entire nominating process into turmoil. Romney will be the last man standing.”

“Newt will collapse in the homestretch—unfortunately.”

“Classic tortoise/hare. Could take most of the spring, like Obama/Clinton.”


Which Republican presidential candidate will win the GOP nomination in 2012?

Republicans (105 votes) 

Michele Bachmann: 1%
Newt Gingrich: 15%
Jon Huntsman: 2%
Ron Paul: 1%
Rick Perry: 1%
Mitt Romney: 76%
Rick Santorum: 0%
Other: 4%


“2012: First thrice-married nominee (and president?). The issue has never been Newt’s quality; it’s the disbelief that he’d get a pass on personal issues from primary voters. Apparently, he is.”

“Republicans are more in the mood for someone who will tell Washington to stick it.”


“Built for the long haul, Romney survives early and rolls late. The White House gets its worst nightmare—a Romney nomination backed by a united GOP.”

“Sadly, out of a pathetic field, Romney will be voted least pathetic. Unfortunately, he’s also least likely to beat Obama.”

“Newt will ultimately blow himself up, and Romney will become the Bob Dole of 2012.”

“Three years from now, Newt Gingrich will replace Fred Thompson as the top spokesman for the reverse mortgage, which he will claim to have designed.”

“Still willing to bet on Newt self-destructing. Just hope it’s in February instead of September.”


“Long live the brokered convention or the late-entry who joins us after Mitt underperforms in New Hampshire and South Carolina. Come on down, Mitch Daniels or Paul Ryan.”


Democratic Political Insiders Jill Alper, John Anzalone, Brad Bannon, Dave Beattie, Andy Bechhoefer, Cornell Belcher, Matt Bennett, Mitchell W. Berger, Mike Berman, Stephanie Bosh, Paul Brathwaite, Donna Brazile, Mark Brewer, Ed Bruley, George Bruno, Bonnie Campbell, Bill Carrick, Guy Cecil, Martin J. Chavez, Tony Coelho, Larry Cohen, Jerry Crawford, Brendan Daly, Jeff Danielson, Peter Daou, Howard Dean, Scott DeFife, Jim Demers, Tad Devine, David Di Martino, Debbie Dingell, Monica Dixon, Patrick Dorton, Pat Dujakovich, Anita Dunn, Jeff Eller, Steve Elmendorf, Carter Eskew, Vic Fazio, Peter Fenn, Scott Ferson, Jim Fleischmann, Tina Flournoy, Don Foley, Jeffrey Forbes, Vincent Frillici, Gina Glantz, Niles Godes, John Michael Gonzalez, Joe Grandmaison, Anna Greenberg, Stan Greenberg, Pat Griffin, Larry Grisolano, Michael Gronstal, Lisa Grove, Marcia Hale, Jill Hanauer, Dick Harpootlian, Paul Harstad, Laura Hartigan, Doug Hattaway, Mike Henry, Karen Hicks, Leo Hindery Jr., Harold Ickes, Marcus Jadotte, John Jameson, Steve Jarding, Jonathon Jones, Jim Jordan, Gale Kaufman, Lisa Kountoupes, Celinda Lake, David Lang, Penny Lee, Chris Lehane, Jeff Link, Bob Maloney, Jim Manley, Steve Marchand, Jim Margolis, Paul Maslin, Keith Mason, Susan McCue, Gerald McEntee, Steve McMahon, Tom McMahon, Phil McNamara, David Medina, Michael Meehan, Mark Mellman, John Merrigan, Michael Monroe, Steve Murphy, Janet Napolitano, David Nassar, Marcia Nichols, John Norris, Tom Ochs, Tom O’Donnell, Jeffrey Peck, Debora Pignatelli, Tony Podesta, Jefrey Pollock, Jack Quinn, Larry Rasky, Mame Reiley, Ed Rendell, Steve Ricchetti, Will Robinson, Steve Rosenthal, David Rudd, Ryan Rudominer, John Ryan, Michael Sargeant, Stephanie Schriock, Terry Shumaker, Sean Sinclair, Phil Singer, Erik Smith, Doug Sosnik, Greg Speed, Darry Sragow, Ken Strasma, Doug Thornell, Jeffrey Trammell, Ed Turlington, Rick Wiener, James Williams, JoDee Winterhof, Brian Wolff, Jon Youngdahl, and Jim Zogby.

GOP Political Insiders Dan Allen, Stan Anderson, Gary Andres, Saulius (Saul) Anuzis, Rich Ashooh, Whit Ayres, Brett Bader, Mitch Bainwol, Brian Baker, Gary Bauer, David Beckwith, Paul Bennecke, Clark Benson, Wayne Berman, Brian Bieron, Charlie Black, Kirk Blalock, Carmine Boal, Jeff Boeyink, Ron Bonjean, Jeff Buley, Luke Byars, Nick Calio, Al Cardenas, Danny Carroll, Alex Castellanos, Ron Christie, Jim Cicconi, Jonathan Collegio, Rob Collins, Cesar Conda, Jake Corman, Scott Cottington, Jay Cranford, Greg Crist, Diane Crookham-Johnson, Fergus Cullen, Tom Davis, Mike Dennehy, Ken Duberstein, Debi Durham, Sara Fagen, Frank Fahrenkopf, John Feehery, Don Fierce, Mindy Finn, Mindy Fletcher, Carl Forti, Alex Gage, Bruce A. Gates, Sam Geduldig, Adam Geller, Benjamin Ginsberg, David Girard-diCarlo, Bill Greener, Jonathan Grella, Lanny Griffith, Janet Mullins Grissom, Doug Gross, Todd Harris, Steve Hart, Christopher Healy, Ralph Hellmann, Chris Henick, Terry Holt, David Iannelli, Ed Ingle, Jim Innocenzi, Clark Judge, David Keating, David Kensinger, Bob Kjellander, Ed Kutler, Chris LaCivita, Jim Lake, Steven Law, Steve Lombardo, Kevin Madden, Joel Maiola, Gary Maloney, David Marin, Mary Matalin, Dan Mattoon, Brian McCormack, Mark McKinnon, Kyle McSlarrow, Ken Mehlman, Jim Merrill, Lisa Camooso Miller, Tim Morrison, Mike Murphy, Phil Musser, Ron Nehring, Terry Nelson, Neil Newhouse, David Norcross, Ziad Ojakli, Jack Oliver, Todd Olsen, Kevin O’Neill, Connie Partoyan, Billy Piper, Van B. Poole, Tom Rath, Scott Reed, David Rehr, Tom Reynolds, Steve Roberts, Jason Roe, David Roederer, Dan Schnur, Russ Schriefer, Rich Schwarm, Brent Seaborn, Rick Shelby, Andrew Shore, Kevin Shuvalov, Don Sipple, Ken Spain, Fred Steeper, Bob Stevenson, Terry Sullivan, David Tamasi, Eric Tanenblatt, Richard Temple, Heath Thompson, Jay Timmons, Warren Tompkins, Ted Van Der Meid, Dirk van Dongen, Jan van Lohuizen, Stewart Verdery, Dick Wadhams, John Weaver, Lezlee Westine, Dave Winston, Ginny Wolfe, Fred Wszolek, and Matthew Zablud.

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