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Political Insiders Poll

Political Insiders Poll

National Journal insiders handicap the midterm election.

How Democrats See Election Day

Democrats (90 votes)

 

 

Q. Which party will win the House?

Democratic             19%
Republican             81%

e>

Q. How many House seats will Republicans gain?

 
47 seats

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Q. Which party will win the Senate?

Democratic             97%
Republican              3%

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Q. How many Senate seats will Republicans gain?

 
7 seats

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Q. Who will win these Senate races?

Illinois                              Kentucky
Alexi Giannoulias (D)    52%          Jack Conway (D)        17%
Mark Kirk (R)            48%          Rand Paul (R)          83%

Nevada                                Pennsylvania
Harry Reid (D)           64%          Joe Sestak (D)         53%
Sharron Angle (R)        36%          Pat Toomey (R)         47%

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Q. Who will win these House races?

Iowa 03                               New Hampshire 02
Leonard Boswell (D)      72%          Ann Kuster (D)         35%
Brad Zaun (R)            28%          Charlie Bass (R)       65%

South Carolina 05                     South Dakota AL
John Spratt (D)          48%          Stephanie Herseth Sandlin (D)   43%
Mick Mulvaney (R)        52%          Kristi Noem (R)                 57%

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Q. Who will win these governors’ races?

California                            Florida
Jerry Brown (D)          97%          Alex Sink (D)          61%
Meg Whitman (R)           3%          Rick Scott (R)         39%

Ohio
Ted Strickland (D)       33%
John Kasich (R)          67%

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Q. Will California Proposition 19 legalizing marijuana pass?

Yes                      39%
No                       61%

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Q. What percentage of the vote will Christine O’Donnell receive in Delaware’s Senate race?

40%

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Q. What will be the biggest surprise on election night?

“Democrats will remain in control of the House and Senate.”

“Independent governor candidates do well: [Eliot] Cutler in Maine and [Lincoln] Chaffee win; several more run better than expected.”

“Barney Frank loses in Massachusetts.”

“Democrats lose the House by less than 10 seats.”

“Lisa Murkowski wins her write-in campaign for Senate.”

“Independent Tom Tancredo wins Colorado governor.”

“[Democrat] Diane Denish comes back to win the [governor’s race] in
New Mexico.”

“Democrat Roy Barnes wins Georgia governor’s race.”

“[Sen. Russell] Feingold winning with points to spare.”

“North Carolina’s four House incumbent D’s in competitive races will all win: Heath Shuler, Larry Kissell, Bob Etheridge, Mike McIntyre.”

 

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