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Magazine / Political Insiders Poll

Political Insiders Poll

National Journal insiders handicap the midterm election.

October 28, 2010

How Democrats See Election Day

Democrats (90 votes)

 

Q. Which party will win the House?

 
Democratic             19%
Republican             81%

e>

Q. How many House seats will Republicans gain?

47 seats

e>

Q. Which party will win the Senate?

Democratic             97%
Republican              3%

e>

Q. How many Senate seats will Republicans gain?

7 seats

e>

Q. Who will win these Senate races?

Illinois                              Kentucky
Alexi Giannoulias (D)    52%          Jack Conway (D)        17%
Mark Kirk (R)            48%          Rand Paul (R)          83%

Nevada                                Pennsylvania
Harry Reid (D)           64%          Joe Sestak (D)         53%
Sharron Angle (R)        36%          Pat Toomey (R)         47%

e>

Q. Who will win these House races?

Iowa 03                               New Hampshire 02
Leonard Boswell (D)      72%          Ann Kuster (D)         35%
Brad Zaun (R)            28%          Charlie Bass (R)       65%

South Carolina 05                     South Dakota AL
John Spratt (D)          48%          Stephanie Herseth Sandlin (D)   43%
Mick Mulvaney (R)        52%          Kristi Noem (R)                 57%

e>

Q. Who will win these governors’ races?

California                            Florida
Jerry Brown (D)          97%          Alex Sink (D)          61%
Meg Whitman (R)           3%          Rick Scott (R)         39%

Ohio
Ted Strickland (D)       33%
John Kasich (R)          67%

e>

Q. Will California Proposition 19 legalizing marijuana pass?

Yes                      39%
No                       61%

e>

Q. What percentage of the vote will Christine O’Donnell receive in Delaware’s Senate race?

40%

e>

Q. What will be the biggest surprise on election night?

“Democrats will remain in control of the House and Senate.”

“Independent governor candidates do well: [Eliot] Cutler in Maine and [Lincoln] Chaffee win; several more run better than expected.”

“Barney Frank loses in Massachusetts.”

“Democrats lose the House by less than 10 seats.”

“Lisa Murkowski wins her write-in campaign for Senate.”

“Independent Tom Tancredo wins Colorado governor.”

“[Democrat] Diane Denish comes back to win the [governor’s race] in
New Mexico.”

“Democrat Roy Barnes wins Georgia governor’s race.”

“[Sen. Russell] Feingold winning with points to spare.”

“North Carolina’s four House incumbent D’s in competitive races will all win: Heath Shuler, Larry Kissell, Bob Etheridge, Mike McIntyre.”

 

How Republicans See Election Day

Republicans (87 votes)

 

Q. Which party will win the House?

Democratic                 0%
Republican               100%

Q. How many House seats will Republicans gain?

53 seats

Q. Which party will win the Senate?

Democratic                92%
Republican                 8%

Q. How many Senate seats will Republicans gain?

8 seats

Q. Who will win these Senate races?

Illinois                              Kentucky
Alexi Giannoulias (D)    15%          Jack Conway (D)         2%
Mark Kirk (R)            85%          Rand Paul (R)          98%

Nevada                                Pennsylvania
Harry Reid (D)           30%          Joe Sestak (D)         16%
Sharron Angle (R)        70%          Pat Toomey (R)         84%

Q. Who will win these House races?

Iowa 03                               New Hampshire 02
Leonard Boswell (D)      27%          Ann Kuster (D)         20%
Brad Zaun (R)            73%          Charlie Bass (R)       80%

South Carolina 05                     South Dakota AL
John Spratt (D)          20%          Stephanie Herseth Sandlin (D)   13%
Mick Mulvaney (R)        80%          Kristi Noem (R)                 87%

Q. Who will win these governors’ races?

California                            Florida
Jerry Brown (D)          88%          Alex Sink (D)          19%
Meg Whitman (R)          12%          Rick Scott (R)         81%

Ohio
Ted Strickland (D)        2%
John Kasich (R)          98%

Q. Will California Proposition 19 legalizing marijuana pass?

Yes                      21%
No                       79%

Q. What percentage of the vote will Christine O’Donnell receive in Delaware’s Senate race?

41%

Q. What will be the biggest surprise on election night?

“That Republicans do not do as well as predicted.”

“[Independent Tom] Tancredo is elected governor of Colorado.”

“Magnitude of GOP gains in the House.”

“[Republican] Tom Foley wins Connecticut governor’s race.”

“[Democratic Rep.] Gene Taylor loses in Mississippi.”

“Barney Frank defeated by Sean Bielat in [MA-04].”

“Minnesota [Democratic] Rep. Jim Oberstar gets beat.”

“Speaker Pelosi will announce her retirement on Wednesday morning.”

“Five Democratic House seats in Pennsylvania will go Republican—four sitting Democratic incumbents will lose.”

“Lisa Murkowski will win her write-in campaign—although this may stretch the definition of election night.”

Democratic Political Insiders Jill Alper, John Anzalone, Brad Bannon, Dave Beattie, Andy Bechhoefer, Cornell Belcher, Matt Bennett, Mitchell W. Berger, Mike Berman, Stephanie Bosh, Paul Brathwaite, Donna Brazile, Mark Brewer, Ed Bruley, George Bruno, Deb Callahan, Bonnie Campbell, Bill Carrick, Guy Cecil, Martin J. Chavez, Tony Coelho, Larry Cohen, Jerry Crawford, Stephanie Cutter, Jeff Danielson, Peter Daou, Howard Dean, Jim Demers, Tad Devine, David Di Martino, Debbie Dingell, Monica Dixon, Patrick Dorton, Pat Dujakovich, Anita Dunn, Jeff Eller, Steve Elmendorf, Carter Eskew, Eric Eve, Vic Fazio, Peter Fenn, Scott Ferson, Jim Fleischmann, Tina Flournoy, Don Foley, Don Fowler, Vincent Frillici, Gina Glantz, Niles Godes, John Michael Gonzalez, Joe Grandmaison, Anna Greenberg, Stan Greenberg, Pat Griffin, Larry Grisolano, Michael Gronstal, Lisa Grove, Marcia Hale, Jill Hanauer, Dick Harpootlian, Paul Harstad, Laura Hartigan, Doug Hattaway, Mike Henry, Karen Hicks, Leo Hindery Jr., Harold Ickes, Marcus Jadotte, John Jameson, Steve Jarding, Jonathon Jones, Jim Jordan, Gale Kaufman, Lisa Kountoupes, Kam Kuwata, Celinda Lake, David Lang, Penny Lee, Chris Lehane, Jeff Link, Bill Lynch, Bob Maloney, Steve Marchand, Jim Margolis, Paul Maslin, Keith Mason, Terry McAuliffe, Susan McCue, Gerald McEntee, Tom McMahon, Phil McNamara, David Medina, Michael Meehan, Mark Mellman, John Merrigan, Steve Murphy, Janet Napolitano, David Nassar, Marcia Nichols, John Norris, Tom Ochs, Tom O’Donnell, Scott Parven, Jeffrey Peck, Debora Pignatelli, Tony Podesta, Jack Quinn, Larry Rasky, Bruce Reed, Mame Reiley, Steve Ricchetti, Will Robinson, Steve Rosenthal, David Rudd, John Ryan, Michael Sargeant, Stephanie Schriock, Wendy Sherman, Terry Shumaker, Sean Sinclair, Phil Singer, Erik Smith, Doug Sosnik, Greg Speed, Darry Sragow, Ken Strasma, Katrina Swett Sarah, Swisher, Jeffrey Trammell, Ed Turlington, Rick Wiener, Bridgette Williams, James Williams, JoDee Winterhof, Brian Wolff, Jon Youngdahl, and Jim Zogby.

 

GOP Political Insiders Dan Allen, Stan Anderson, Gary Andres, Saulius (Saul) Anuzis, Rich Ashooh, Whit Ayres, Brett Bader, Mitch Bainwol, Gary Bauer, David Beckwith, Clark Benson, Wayne Berman, Brian Bieron, Charlie Black, Kirk Blalock, Carmine Boal, Jeff Boeyink, Ron Bonjean, Jeff Buley, Luke Byars, Nick Calio, Al Cardenas, Danny Carroll, Ron Christie, Jim Cicconi, Rob Collins, Cesar Conda, Jake Corman, Scott Cottington, Greg Crist, Diane Crookham-Johnson, Fergus Cullen, Tom Davis, Mike Dennehy, Ken Duberstein, Steve Duprey, Debi Durham, Sara Fagen, Frank Fahrenkopf, John Feehery, Don Fierce, Mindy Finn, Mindy Fletcher, Carl Forti, Alex Gage, Sam Geduldig, Adam Geller, Benjamin Ginsberg, David Girard-diCarlo, Bill Greener, Jonathan Grella, Lanny Griffith, Janet Mullins Grissom, Doug Gross, Todd Harris, Steve Hart, Christopher Healy, Ralph Hellmann, Chris Henick, Terry Holt, David Iannelli, Barry Jackson, Clark Judge, David Keating, David Kensinger, Bruce Keough, Bob Kjellander, Ed Kutler, Chris Lacivita, Jim Lake, Steve Lombardo, Kevin Madden, Joel Maiola, Gary Maloney, David Marin, Mary Matalin, Dan Mattoon, Brian McCormack, Mark McKinnon, Kyle McSlarrow, Ken Mehlman, Jim Merrill, Lisa Camooso Miller, Tim Morrison, Mike Murphy, Phil Musser, Ron Nehring, Terry Nelson, Neil Newhouse, David Norcross, Ziad Ojakli, Jack Oliver, Todd Olsen, Connie Partoyan, Dana Perino, Van B. Poole, Tom Rath, Scott Reed, David Rehr, Tom Reynolds, Steve Roberts, Jason Roe, David Roederer, Dan Schnur, Russ Schriefer, Rich Schwarm, Brent Seaborn, Rick Shelby, Andrew Shore, Kevin Shuvalov, Don Sipple, Fred Steeper, Bob Stevenson, Eric Tanenblatt, Richard Temple, Heath Thompson, Jay Timmons, Warren Tompkins, Ted Van Der Meid, Dirk van Dongen, Jan van Lohuizen, Stewart Verdery, Dick Wadhams, John Weaver, Lezlee Westine, Tom Wilson, Dave Winston, Ginny Wolfe, and Fred Wszolek.

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