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Political Insiders Poll

Political Insiders Poll

National Journal insiders handicap the midterm election.

How Democrats See Election Day

Democrats (90 votes)



Q. Which party will win the House?

Democratic             19%
Republican             81%


Q. How many House seats will Republicans gain?

47 seats


Q. Which party will win the Senate?

Democratic             97%
Republican              3%


Q. How many Senate seats will Republicans gain?

7 seats


Q. Who will win these Senate races?

Illinois                              Kentucky
Alexi Giannoulias (D)    52%          Jack Conway (D)        17%
Mark Kirk (R)            48%          Rand Paul (R)          83%

Nevada                                Pennsylvania
Harry Reid (D)           64%          Joe Sestak (D)         53%
Sharron Angle (R)        36%          Pat Toomey (R)         47%


Q. Who will win these House races?

Iowa 03                               New Hampshire 02
Leonard Boswell (D)      72%          Ann Kuster (D)         35%
Brad Zaun (R)            28%          Charlie Bass (R)       65%

South Carolina 05                     South Dakota AL
John Spratt (D)          48%          Stephanie Herseth Sandlin (D)   43%
Mick Mulvaney (R)        52%          Kristi Noem (R)                 57%


Q. Who will win these governors’ races?

California                            Florida
Jerry Brown (D)          97%          Alex Sink (D)          61%
Meg Whitman (R)           3%          Rick Scott (R)         39%

Ted Strickland (D)       33%
John Kasich (R)          67%


Q. Will California Proposition 19 legalizing marijuana pass?

Yes                      39%
No                       61%


Q. What percentage of the vote will Christine O’Donnell receive in Delaware’s Senate race?



Q. What will be the biggest surprise on election night?

“Democrats will remain in control of the House and Senate.”

“Independent governor candidates do well: [Eliot] Cutler in Maine and [Lincoln] Chaffee win; several more run better than expected.”

“Barney Frank loses in Massachusetts.”

“Democrats lose the House by less than 10 seats.”

“Lisa Murkowski wins her write-in campaign for Senate.”

“Independent Tom Tancredo wins Colorado governor.”

“[Democrat] Diane Denish comes back to win the [governor’s race] in
New Mexico.”

“Democrat Roy Barnes wins Georgia governor’s race.”

“[Sen. Russell] Feingold winning with points to spare.”

“North Carolina’s four House incumbent D’s in competitive races will all win: Heath Shuler, Larry Kissell, Bob Etheridge, Mike McIntyre.”


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