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POLITICAL INSIDERS POLL

Political Insiders Poll

Q: On a scale of zero (no chance) to 10 (virtual certainty), how likely are the Republicans to take over the House this November?

Democrats (111 votes)

Oct. '10

 

AVERAGE SCORE: 6.7

Low (0-3):       5%
Moderate (4-6): 37%
High (7-10):    58%

e>

Sept. '10

 

AVERAGE SCORE: 6.7

Low (0-3):       5%
Moderate (4-6): 34%
High (7-10):    61%

e>

2. "2010 is 2010, and the chattering-class narrative just does not translate that simply. We are closer to 1982 than to 1994."

3.5. "The Republican Party's numbers are even worse than ours."

 

4.5. "Winning 42 to 43 seats is still tough to pull off, and Dems have the financial advantage."

5. "Tea party candidates are perfect sources for 'October surprise' opposition-research 'drops.' "

5. "Can't believe we could lose seats in Massachusetts, but we could."

6. "Most likely Republican gain is in the mid-40s, as they have benefited from an expanding playing field and an advantage on TV."

6. "National environment favors them, but the Dems have a ground advantage and the party committee has more cash-on-hand."

6. "The less-told story in this cycle is how well Democrats who represent Republican districts and voted no on health care are doing."

7. "If Republicans can make the election about Obama, they win."

8. "I wish I could be more optimistic, but there's no sense 'whistling past the graveyard.' "

8. "Democrats would need an unanticipated boost at the national level or a series of stronger-than-expected showings to avert disaster. Start planning for 2012."

8. "We will remember 2010 as the year the tide of unregulated, undisclosed money permanently changed American politics."

9. "Democrats have needed a game-changer, and one simply hasn't appeared."

9. "Voters are looking for 'change they can believe in,' and apparently if you have a 'D' behind your name you'd better look out."

10. "The only question is how big a majority the R's will have."

Q: On a scale of zero (no chance) to 10 (virtual certainty), how likely are the Republicans to take over the House this November?

Republicans (104 votes)

Oct. '10

AVERAGE SCORE: 8.4

Low (0-3):       0%
Moderate (4-6):  6%
High (7-10):    94%

e>

Sept. '10

AVERAGE SCORE: 8.1

Low (0-3):       0%
Moderate (4-6): 12%
High (7-10):    88%

e>

4. "The Democrats are starting to get their act together. They've got the money, and it looks like their base is starting to wake up."

6. "Forty seats is a lot of seats."

7. "All polls indicate a strengthening tide. Dems are trying Social Security scare tactics, a weak and dated response."

7. "My heart says 10, but my head says 7. Does anyone really know what's going on out there?"

7. "The tsunami is taking too long to arrive -- some D's are likely to find a palm tree to cling to."

8. "My polling is so Republican as to have me scratching my head, which is the same thing that happened in 1994."

8. "The Democrats lost the confidence of voters. Republicans still must prove they earned the win."

9. "Too many bad votes put too many D's in trouble. Pelosi didn't understand who comprised her former majority."

9. "It's now clear that more than 100 seats are in play. With the president's approval on the ropes, I can't imagine a scenario where Republicans don't win a significant majority of those seats."

9. "Democrats playing defense in places previously unimaginable."

10. "Democrats may well lose the most midterm seats in the past 100 years. Will they learn?"

10. "Even Democrats in previous strongholds are going to fall. It's just that bad out there for them."

10. "The Republican aren't taking it -- the Democrats just lost it!"

10. "It's turning into a massacre."

Q: On a scale of zero (no chance) to 10 (virtual certainty), how likely are the Republicans to take over the Senate this November?

Democrats (111 votes)

Oct. '10

AVERAGE SCORE: 3.2

Low (0-3):      59%
Moderate (4-6): 37%
High (7-10):     4%

e>

Sept. '10

AVERAGE SCORE: 3.7

Low (0-3):      46%
Moderate (4-6): 46%
High (7-10):     9%

e>

1. "Running the table is hard, and with Christine O'Donnell and the West Virginia hicks ad, they may have just sunk the eight ball."

1. "This is about individual races and candidates, not insider narrative."

2. "Senate math is still difficult for Republicans, though they have brought a couple of additional seats -- West Virginia, Wisconsin -- onto the field."

2. "Not likely the Republicans' year unless the likes of [Patty] Murray and [Russell] Feingold are overwhelmed by 'smart money' and a strong Republican close."

2. "O'Donnell cast a spell over that possibility."

2. "As a Democratic operative, I wish we could take credit for our improving prospects in the Senate. The truth is that the credit belongs entirely to the GOP. Please keep nominating crazies in 2012!"

3. "Republicans would have to win a huge amount of contested seats and not lose any of what they have. Resources are spread very thin."

3. "Delaware, California, and Connecticut will thwart the Republican takeover of the Senate."

4. "The collection of mixed nuts nominated by the GOP is apparently a minimal deterrent to the angry mood of the electorate."

4. "Some key races are starting to turn our way -- and, most important, the dreaded 'enthusiasm gap' is fast disappearing."

4. "The West Coast firewall is smoking."

5. "In a year where the map was favorable for Dems, what a disaster 2010 turned out to be."

7. "This has become a national election, and there's a good chance all the tight Senate races will go Republican."

7. "Democrats caught a break in Delaware and the two 'C's' -- California and Connecticut -- are looking better, but still a tough environment."

Q: On a scale of zero (no chance) to 10 (virtual certainty), how likely are the Republicans to take over the Senate this November?

Republicans (104 votes)

Oct. '10

AVERAGE SCORE: 4.9

Low (0-3):      25%
Moderate (4-6): 59%
High (7-10):    16%

e>

Sept. '10

AVERAGE SCORE: 5.3

Low (0-3):      12%
Moderate (4-6): 45%
High (7-10):    23%

e>

1. "O'Donnell may be us, but she won't be one of 100. Several other tea party types are taking this one out of play."

2. "But 49 votes brings 90 percent of the power with zero percent of the responsibility."

3. "Solidly blue states like California and Washington don't appear to be changing color enough for Republicans to pull off wins."

3. "The number would have been higher, but it shrank a bit when Delaware primary voters threw a bucket of tea on it."

4. "If [Barbara] Boxer and Murray solidify their recent poll gains, the GOP will fall short of control."

4. "But don't forget -- the Senate always flips when the House does."

4. "The GOP has a lock on five seats, with six toss-ups at present: Majority is possible, still tough."

5. "It would still take a lot of stars to align, but they just might."

5. "Connecticut, Colorado, California, and Washington hold the key."

6. "GOP control of the Senate comes down to California. Carly [Fiorina] can unseat Boxer if she has enough money in the closing weeks."

6. "Amazing it's even possible with so many seats to defend."

6. "Senator [Michael] Castle could have sealed the deal."

7. "[John] Cornyn doesn't have ammo for California, Illinois, Ohio, and Washington."

8. "If [Sharron] Angle can beat [Harry] Reid in Nevada, the GOP can win anywhere. And they will."

8. "Were it not for witches, it would be 10."

9. "The president looks desperate as he stumps -- big change from 24 months ago."

National Journal Insiders

Democratic Political Insiders Jill Alper, John Anzalone, Brad Bannon, Dave Beattie, Andy Bechhoefer, Cornell Belcher, Matt Bennett, Mitchell W. Berger, Mike Berman, Stephanie Bosh, Paul Brathwaite, Donna Brazile, Mark Brewer, Ed Bruley, George Bruno, Deb Callahan, Bonnie Campbell, Bill Carrick, Guy Cecil, Martin J. Chavez, Tony Coelho, Larry Cohen, Jerry Crawford, Stephanie Cutter, Jeff Danielson, Peter Daou, Howard Dean, Jim Demers, Tad Devine, David Di Martino, Debbie Dingell, Monica Dixon, Patrick Dorton, Pat Dujakovich, Anita Dunn, Jeff Eller, Steve Elmendorf, Carter Eskew, Eric Eve, Vic Fazio, Peter Fenn, Scott Ferson, Jim Fleischmann, Tina Flournoy, Don Foley, Don Fowler, Vincent Frillici, Gina Glantz, Niles Godes, John Michael Gonzalez, Joe Grandmaison, Anna Greenberg, Stan Greenberg, Pat Griffin, Larry Grisolano, Michael Gronstal, Lisa Grove, Marcia Hale, Jill Hanauer, Dick Harpootlian, Paul Harstad, Laura Hartigan, Doug Hattaway, Mike Henry, Karen Hicks, Leo Hindery Jr., Harold Ickes, Marcus Jadotte, John Jameson, Steve Jarding, Jonathon Jones, Jim Jordan, Gale Kaufman, Lisa Kountoupes, Kam Kuwata, Celinda Lake, David Lang, Penny Lee, Chris Lehane, Jeff Link, Bill Lynch, Bob Maloney, Steve Marchand, Jim Margolis, Paul Maslin, Keith Mason, Terry McAuliffe, Susan McCue, Gerald McEntee, Tom McMahon, Phil McNamara, David Medina, Mark Mellman, John Merrigan, Steve Murphy, Janet Napolitano, David Nassar, Marcia Nichols, John Norris, Tom Ochs, Tom O'Donnell, Scott Parven, Jeffrey Peck, Debora Pignatelli, Tony Podesta, Jack Quinn, Larry Rasky, Bruce Reed, Mame Reiley, Steve Ricchetti, Will Robinson, Steve Rosenthal, David Rudd, John Ryan, Michael Sargeant, Stephanie Schriock, Wendy Sherman, Terry Shumaker, Sean Sinclair, Phil Singer, Erik Smith, Doug Sosnik, Greg Speed, Darry Sragow, Ken Strasma, Katrina Swett Sarah, Swisher, Jeffrey Trammell, Ed Turlington, Rick Wiener, Bridgette Williams, James Williams, JoDee Winterhof, Brian Wolff, Jon Youngdahl, and Jim Zogby.

GOP Political Insiders Dan Allen, Stan Anderson, Gary Andres, Saulius (Saul) Anuzis, Rich Ashooh, Whit Ayres, Brett Bader, Mitch Bainwol, Gary Bauer, David Beckwith, Clark Benson, Wayne Berman, Brian Bieron, Charlie Black, Kirk Blalock, Carmine Boal, Jeff Boeyink, Ron Bonjean, Jeff Buley, Luke Byars, Nick Calio, Al Cardenas, Danny Carroll, Ron Christie, Jim Cicconi, Rob Collins, Cesar Conda, Jake Corman, Scott Cottington, Greg Crist, Diane Crookham-Johnson, Fergus Cullen, Tom Davis, Mike Dennehy, Ken Duberstein, Steve Duprey, Debi Durham, Sara Fagen, Frank Fahrenkopf, John Feehery, Don Fierce, Mindy Finn, Mindy Fletcher, Carl Forti, Alex Gage, Sam Geduldig, Adam Geller, Benjamin Ginsberg, David Girard-diCarlo, Bill Greener, Jonathan Grella, Lanny Griffith, Janet Mullins Grissom, Doug Gross, Todd Harris, Steve Hart, Christopher Healy, Ralph Hellmann, Chris Henick, Terry Holt, David Iannelli, Barry Jackson, Clark Judge, David Keating, David Kensinger, Bruce Keough, Bob Kjellander, Ed Kutler, Chris Lacivita, Jim Lake, Steve Lombardo, Kevin Madden, Joel Maiola, Gary Maloney, David Marin, Mary Matalin, Dan Mattoon, Brian McCormack, Mark McKinnon, Kyle McSlarrow, Ken Mehlman, Jim Merrill, Lisa Camooso Miller, Tim Morrison, Mike Murphy, Phil Musser, Ron Nehring, Terry Nelson, Neil Newhouse, David Norcross, Ziad Ojakli, Jack Oliver, Todd Olsen, Connie Partoyan, Dana Perino, Van B. Poole, Tom Rath, Scott Reed, David Rehr, Tom Reynolds, Steve Roberts, Jason Roe, David Roederer, Dan Schnur, Russ Schriefer, Rich Schwarm, Brent Seaborn, Rick Shelby, Andrew Shore, Kevin Shuvalov, Don Sipple, Fred Steeper, Bob Stevenson, Eric Tanenblatt, Richard Temple, Heath Thompson, Jay Timmons, Warren Tompkins, Ted Van Der Meid, Dirk van Dongen, Jan van Lohuizen, Stewart Verdery, Dick Wadhams, John Weaver, Lezlee Westine, Tom Wilson, Dave Winston, Ginny Wolfe, and Fred Wszolek.

This article appears in the October 16, 2010 edition of National Journal Magazine.

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