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Magazine / INSIDERS POLL

Political Insiders Poll

September 10, 2010
POLITICSHouse Race RankingsThe Hotline's Tim Sahd Assesses Which House Seats Are Most Likely To Switch Party Control This Year. [more...]

Q: On a scale of zero (no chance) to 10 (virtual certainty), how likely are the Republicans to take over the House this November?

Democrats (101 votes)

Average score: 6.7 September 2010

Low (0-3):      5%
Moderate (4-6): 34% 
High (7-10):    61%

 
e>

Average score: 6.6 September 2006

Low (0-3):      0%
Moderate (4-6): 44%
High (7-10):    56%

e>

*In 2006, Insiders were asked the likelihood of Democrats taking over the House.

1. "Despite the chattering class narrative du jour, this is not 1994."

4. "The math is still tough to overcome: The GOP needs to win between 41 and 43 [Democratic] seats to do this. That's a lot."

5. "A 39-seat gain would require the Republicans to win the vast number of the current toss-up races. If Democrats close the enthusiasm gap, the national and local polls will start to look better."

5. "They will fail, because at the last minute Democrats will get off their collective asses and cringe at the Republican alternative."

6. "Environment's looking tougher every day; we need to give our base something to vote for."

6. "The Democrats have got to start an 'enthusiasm' drive and get their base fired up. If not, control will be in the hands of the Republicans."

7. "Voters are angry at incumbents, and this election could still turn if Democrats ever manage to define who they are and [show] that Republicans are not offering action."

7. "Dems have money, but the environment is not getting better."

7. "I'd have been higher if it wasn't for the fact that I believe a good number of low-on-the-radar incumbent Republicans will also lose. Incumbents are fair game right now on both sides."

7. "By October, it'll be a 10 -- a complete and utter blowout."

8. "The only reason it is not higher is that Democrats retain a financial advantage and may be able to compete in places where the Republicans will simply not have the money to play."

8. "Democrats lack a message that resonates and a leader who can articulate what we are for."

8. "The jobless recession means many Democratic [members of Congress] will be jobless."

9. "The die seems to be cast: Independents have made up their minds, and it isn't pretty for Democrats."

9. "Money can't buy you love."

10. "The anger tide is real, and there is nothing emanating from Washington to change the dynamic."

10. "It is a done deal."

Q: On a scale of zero (no chance) to 10 (virtual certainty), how likely are the Republicans to take over the House this November?

Republicans (102 votes)

Average score: 8.1 September 2010

Low (0-3):      0%
Moderate (4-6): 12%
High (7-10):    88%

e>

Average score: 5.7 September 2006

Low (0-3):      13%
Moderate (4-6): 49%
High (7-10):    37%

e>

*In 2006, Insiders were asked the likelihood of Democrats taking over the House.

5. "There's a lot of baseball left. People need to stop dancing and go work on campaigns."

5. "The GOP's good candidates and enthusiasm will get doused in expensive seats by the DCCC bankroll."

6. "Dems cannot fund so many tough races; NRCC finally in gear."

7. "It's clear there is nothing Dems can do before November 2 to change the momentum. The die is cast for major [GOP] gains."

7. "This is a referendum on Obama-Pelosi. The era of Big Government is over again."

7. "There's no place for the Democrats to hide. It's a Category 4 storm approaching, and there's nothing in the way to slow it down."

8. "When [political analyst] Stu Rothenberg says that 81 congressional seats are in play, 69 of them currently held by Democrats, you know the Dems are in trouble."

8. "They'd really have to do something ridiculous not to get a majority at this point."

8. "The ship carrying the Democrats' fortunes needed to start turning by now to be headed the right way in November. Instead, it started taking on water in August."

8. "[Rep. Chris] Van Hollen has already set up the DCCC 'death panel' to cut off [Democratic] members with no chance."

8. "But many of our nominees are only now starting to have their 'welcome to the NFL' moments. Democrats have more money and the RNC is not going to fund turnout, so this one ain't over yet."

9. "Barring an October surprise, the toxic brew of economic

indicators and right-track/wrong-track numbers has made taking back the House almost a sure thing."

9. "Only the total collapse of the RNC could screw it up."

10. "The economy is not improving, and neither is the president's approval rating."

10. "Washington is just catching on; the tea party is merely the stormy surface of an oceanic tide in American politics."

10. "It is an electoral tidal wave and riptide that will swallow up the existing majorities."

Q: On a scale of zero (no chance) to 10 (virtual certainty), how likely are the Republicans to take over the Senate this November?

Democrats (101 votes)

Average score: 3.7 September 2010

Low (0-3):      46%
Moderate (4-6): 46%
High (7-10):    9%

e>

Average score: 4.7 September 2006

Low (0-3):      16%
Moderate (4-6): 71%
High (7-10):    13%

e>

*In 2006, Insiders were asked the likelihood of Democrats taking over the Senate.

2. "For Republicans to control the Senate, they need to win virtually every competitive race. An eight-seat gain falling short of control is more likely."

2. "Better chances than I gave them six months ago, but incumbency is still more of an asset than a liability."

2. "The Democrats will hold on to the Senate by a couple of seats with [Barbara] Boxer and [Russell] Feingold having political skills too powerful for their rookie opponents."

3. "But the Republicans will be in an excellent position to complete the takeover in 2012 ... 23 of the 33 seats up for grabs are Democratic."

4. "The Senate may be a harder road for the Republicans, because voters will have more information about each candidate and be less affected by a national trend."

5. "The wave will have to hit California, Washington, and Wisconsin. The tea party nominees will have to hold up. Possible, but everything has to fall in place for the Republicans."

5. "The trend lines are still headed in the wrong direction. If Democrats don't stand for something, voters apparently will fall for anything. That is what is happening."

5. "But it feels like the number will be getting higher."

6. "It's amazing that we are on the verge of losing seats that never should have been in play to begin with."

6. "Some Dems as safe as Lehman Brothers."

7. "The light at the end of the tunnel is an oncoming train for Democrats."

8. "The bottom seems to be dropping out. This feels very much like the 1980 tsunami when Republicans picked up 12 Senate seats."

Q: On a scale of zero (no chance) to 10 (virtual certainty), how likely are the Republicans to take over the Senate this November?

Republicans (102 votes)

Average score: 5.3 September 2010

Low (0-3):      13%
Moderate (4-6): 65%
High (7-10):    23%

e>

Average score: 3.5 September 2006

Low (0-3):      54%
Moderate (4-6): 45%
High (7-10):    1%

e>

*In 2006, Insiders were asked the likelihood of Democrats taking over the Senate.

0. "Too many races with weak Republican candidates will give victories to weak Democratic incumbents."

2. "It is just a bridge too far right now."

4. "Had the GOP chosen different primary candidates in at least three states, chances would have been a 7 or 8."

4. "The Democrats' money advantage will help them in just enough states for them to hold the Senate."

4. "To do so, Republicans will have to avoid any strategic mistakes in the September legislative work period; not overplay their hand."

5. "If [Sharron] Angle beats [Harry] Reid, Republicans will win everywhere."

5. "Republicans pick up at least eight or nine [seats]. The 10th vote is the toughest."

6. "Various candidates and state dynamics play against us. Power of incumbency is more pronounced. Challengers need more money to be effective. The RNC's lack of fundraising hurts us here."

6. "What was once unthinkable is now becoming possible."

6. "The $25 million question: Can the Right fund [Carly] Fiorina?"

6. "Democrats playing defense everywhere."

7. "The Western time zone holds all the cards: It comes down to [defeating Barbara] Boxer and [Patty] Murray."

8. "Senate seats tend to fall like dominoes, and they are starting to fall."

9. "I am a recent convert to this optimism, but when you go state by state it sure looks like it will be a Republican tsunami in November."

Democratic Political Insiders Jill Alper, John Anzalone, Brad Bannon, Dave Beattie, Andy Bechhoefer, Cornell Belcher, Matt Bennett, Mitchell W. Berger, Mike Berman, Stephanie Bosh, Paul Brathwaite, Donna Brazile, Mark Brewer, Ed Bruley, George Bruno, Deb Callahan, Bonnie Campbell, Bill Carrick, Guy Cecil, Martin J. Chavez, Tony Coelho, Larry Cohen, Jerry Crawford, Stephanie Cutter, Jeff Danielson, Peter Daou, Howard Dean, Jim Demers, Tad Devine, David Di Martino, Debbie Dingell, Monica Dixon, Patrick Dorton, Pat Dujakovich, Anita Dunn, Jeff Eller, Steve Elmendorf, Carter Eskew, Eric Eve, Vic Fazio, Peter Fenn, Scott Ferson, Jim Fleischmann, Tina Flournoy, Don Foley, Don Fowler, Vincent Frillici, Gina Glantz, Niles Godes, John Michael Gonzalez, Joe Grandmaison, Anna Greenberg, Stan Greenberg, Pat Griffin, Larry Grisolano, Michael Gronstal, Lisa Grove, Marcia Hale, Jill Hanauer, Dick Harpootlian, Paul Harstad, Laura Hartigan, Mike Henry, Karen Hicks, Leo Hindery Jr., Harold Ickes, Marcus Jadotte, John Jameson, Steve Jarding, Jonathon Jones, Jim Jordan, Gale Kaufman, Lisa Kountoupes, Kam Kuwata, Celinda Lake, David Lang, Penny Lee, Chris Lehane, Jeff Link, Bill Lynch, Bob Maloney, Steve Marchand, Jim Margolis, Paul Maslin, Keith Mason, Terry McAuliffe, Susan McCue, Gerald McEntee, Tom McMahon, Phil McNamara, David Medina, Mark Mellman, John Merrigan, Steve Murphy, Janet Napolitano, David Nassar, Marcia Nichols, John Norris, Tom Ochs, Tom O'Donnell, Scott Parven, Jeffrey Peck, Debora Pignatelli, Tony Podesta, Jack Quinn, Larry Rasky, Bruce Reed, Mame Reiley, Steve Ricchetti, Will Robinson, Steve Rosenthal, David Rudd, John Ryan, Michael Sargeant, Wendy Sherman, Terry Shumaker, Sean Sinclair, Phil Singer, Erik Smith, Doug Sosnik, Greg Speed, Darry Sragow, Ken Strasma, Sarah Swisher, Jeffrey Trammell, Ed Turlington, Rick Wiener, Bridgette Williams, James Williams, JoDee Winterhof, Brian Wolff, Jon Youngdahl, and Jim Zogby.

GOP Political Insiders Dan Allen, Stan Anderson, Gary Andres, Saulius (Saul) Anuzis, Whit Ayres, Brett Bader, Mitch Bainwol, Gary Bauer, David Beckwith, Clark Benson, Wayne Berman, Brian Bieron, Charlie Black, Kirk Blalock, Carmine Boal, Jeff Boeyink, Ron Bonjean, Jeff Buley, Luke Byars, Nick Calio, Al Cardenas, Danny Carroll, Ron Christie, Jim Cicconi, Rob Collins, Cesar Conda, Jake Corman, Scott Cottington, Charlie Crist, Greg Crist, Diane Crookham-Johnson, Fergus Cullen, Tom Davis, Mike Dennehy, Ken Duberstein, Steve Duprey, Debi Durham, Sara Fagen, Frank Fahrenkopf, John Feehery, Don Fierce, Mindy Finn, Mindy Fletcher, Carl Forti, Alex Gage, Sam Geduldig, Adam Geller, Benjamin Ginsberg, David Girard-diCarlo, Bill Greener, Jonathan Grella, Lanny Griffith, Janet Mullins Grissom, Doug Gross, Todd Harris, Steve Hart, Christopher Healy, Ralph Hellmann, Chris Henick, Terry Holt, David Iannelli, Barry Jackson, Clark Judge, David Keating, David Kensinger, Bruce Keough, Bob Kjellander, Ed Kutler, Chris Lacivita, Jim Lake, Steve Lombardo, Kevin Madden, Joel Maiola, Gary Maloney, David Marin, Mary Matalin, Dan Mattoon, Brian McCormack, Mark McKinnon, Kyle McSlarrow, Ken Mehlman, Jim Merrill, Tim Morrison, Mike Murphy, Phil Musser, Ron Nehring, Terry Nelson, Neil Newhouse, David Norcross, Ziad Ojakli, Jack Oliver, Todd Olsen, Connie Partoyan, Dana Perino, Van B. Poole, Tom Rath, Scott Reed, David Rehr, Tom Reynolds, Steve Roberts, Jason Roe, David Roederer, Dan Schnur, Russ Schriefer, Rich Schwarm, Brent Seaborn, Rick Shelby, Andrew Shore, Kevin Shuvalov, Don Sipple, Fred Steeper, Bob Stevenson, Eric Tanenblatt, Richard Temple, Heath Thompson, Jay Timmons, Warren Tompkins, Ted Van Der Meid, Dirk van Dongen, Jan van Lohuizen, Stewart Verdery, Dick Wadhams, John Weaver, Lezlee Westine, Tom Wilson, Dave Winston, Ginny Wolfe, and Fred Wszolek.

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