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INSIDE WASHINGTON

Political Insiders Poll

Election 2008: The Results Are In

Here's how our Political Insiders fared in our election prediction contest. The winners are Democratic media consultant Bill Carrick and Republican communications strategist Todd Harris.

                         Outcome  Democratic   GOP        Bill       Todd 
                                   Insiders  Insiders    Carrick    Harris
1) Who will win the 
   presidential election? Obama     Obama     Obama       Obama      Obama
                          
2) Who will win each of 
   these five states?
Florida                   Obama     Obama     Obama       Obama      Obama
Indiana                   Obama     McCain    McCain      Obama      McCain
Missouri*                 McCain    McCain    McCain      McCain     McCain
Montana                   McCain    McCain    McCain      McCain     McCain
Pennsylvania              Obama     Obama     Obama       Obama      Obama

 
e>

4) Who will win these 
   Senate races?
Minnesota*                Coleman   Franken    Coleman    Franken    Coleman
Mississippi               Wicker    Wicker     Wicker     Wicker     Wicker
New Hampshire             Shaheen   Shaheen    Shaheen    Shaheen    Shaheen
North Carolina            Hagan     Hagan      Hagan      Hagan      Hagan 

e>

4) Who will win these 
   Senate races?
Minnesota*                Coleman   Franken    Coleman    Franken    Coleman
Mississippi               Wicker    Wicker     Wicker     Wicker     Wicker
New Hampshire             Shaheen   Shaheen    Shaheen    Shaheen    Shaheen
North Carolina            Hagan     Hagan      Hagan      Hagan      Hagan 

e>

5) How many seats 
   will Democrats pick up 
   in the House?*          20         24         24        26         31

 
e>

6) Who will win these 
   House races?
Connecticut 04            Himes      Himes     Shays      Himes      Shays
Pennsylvania 11           Kanjorski  Barletta  Kanjorski  Kanjorski  Kanjorski

e>

7) Who will win this 
   governor's race?
North Carolina            Perdue     Perdue    McCrory    Perdue     Perdue

e>

8) Will the California 
gay-marriage ban 
initiative pass or fail?  Pass       Fail      Fail       Pass       Pass

e>

9) When will the loser 
of the presidential 
election concede?         Before     Before    Before     After      Before

 
e>

10) What will be the 
   Electoral College 
   tally?*
Barack Obama              364         337       326        364        364
John McCain               174         201       212        174        174

e>

*For the purposes of this contest, Missouri was awarded to McCain and North Carolina to Obama even though official declarations had not been made by press time. In House and Senate races, candidates who were ahead at press time were deemed the winners. One point was awarded for each correct answer.

National Journal Insiders

Democratic Political Insiders Karen Ackerman, Jill Alper, David Axelrod, Brad Bannon, Dave Beattie, Andy Bechhoefer, Cornell Belcher, Mitchell W. Berger, Mike Berman, Donna Brazile, Mark Brewer, Ed Bruley, George Bruno, Deb Callahan, Bonnie Campbell, Bill Carrick, Martin J. Chavez, Tony Coelho, Jim Craig, Jerry Crawford, Stephanie Cutter, Jeff Danielson, Peter Daou, Jim Demers, Tad Devine, Debbie Dingell, Monica Dixon, Michael Donilon, Tom Donilon, Anita Dunn, Jeff Eller, Steve Elmendorf, Carter Eskew, Eric Eve, Vic Fazio, Peter Fenn, Scott Ferson, Gordon Fischer, Tina Flournoy, Don Foley, Don Fowler, Gina Glantz, Joe Grandmaison, Anna Greenberg, Stan Greenberg, Pat Griffin, Michael Gronstal, Marcia Hale, Paul Harstad, Laura Hartigan, Mike Henry, Leo Hindery, Jr., Harold Ickes, Marcus Jadotte, John Jameson, Steve Jarding, Jonathon Jones, Jim Jordan, Gale Kaufman, Shar Knutson, Kam Kuwata, Celinda Lake, David Lang, Sylvia Larsen, Chris Lehane, Jeff Link, Bill Lynch, Steve Marchand, Jim Margolis, Paul Maslin, Terry McAuliffe, Caroline McCarley, Susan McCue, Gerald McEntee, Tom McMahon, Phil McNamara, David Medina, Mark Mellman, John Merrigan, Steve Murphy, Janet Napolitano, David Nassar, Marcia Nichols, John Norris, Tom Ochs, Tom O'Donnell, Scott Parven, Jeffrey Peck, Debora Pignatelli, John Podesta, Tony Podesta, Bruce Reed, Mame Reiley, Steve Ricchetti, Susan Rice, Will Robinson, Steve Rosenthal, David Rudd, John Ryan, Wendy Sherman, Terry Shumaker, Phil Singer, Bob Slagle, Erik Smith, Doug Sosnik, Darry Sragow, Karl Struble, Katrina Swett, Sarah Swisher, Eric Tabor, Jeffrey Trammell, Ed Turlington, Mike Veon, Rick Wiener, Bridgette Williams, JoDee Winterhof, and Jim Zogby.

GOP Political Insiders Dan Allen, Stan Anderson, Gary Andres, Saulius (Saul) Anuzis, Rich Ashooh, Whit Ayres, Brett Bader, Mitch Bainwol, Gary Bauer, David Beckwith, Wayne Berman, Charlie Black, Kirk Blalock, Carmine Boal, Jeff Boeyink, Ron Bonjean, Jeff Buley, Luke Byars, Nick Calio, Danny Carroll, Ron Christie, Jim Cicconi, Cesar Conda, Jake Corman, Charlie Crist, Greg Crist, Diane Crookham-Johnson, Fergus Cullen, Rick Davis, Mike Dennehy, Ken Duberstein, Steve Duprey, Debi Durham, Frank Fahrenkopf, John Feehery, Don Fierce, Carl Forti, Alex Gage, Sam Geduldig, Benjamin Ginsberg, Bill Greener, Jonathan Grella, Lanny Griffith, Janet Mullins Grissom, Doug Gross, Todd Harris, Steve Hart, Christopher Healy, Ralph Hellmann, Chris Henick, Terry Holt, David Iannelli, Clark Judge, David Keating, David Kensinger, Bruce Keough, Bob Kjellander, Ed Kutler, Chris Lacivita, Jim Lake, Chuck Larson, Steve Lombardo, Kevin Madden, Joel Maiola, Gary Maloney, David Marin, Mary Matalin, Dan Mattoon, Bill McInturff, Mark McKinnon, Kyle McSlarrow, Ken Mehlman, Jim Merrill, Mike Murphy, Phil Musser, Ron Nehring, Terry Nelson, Neil Newhouse, David Norcross, Ziad Ojakli, Jack Oliver, Van B. Poole, Tom Rath, Scott Reed, David Rehr, Steve Roberts, Jason Roe, David Roederer, Ed Rogers, Dan Schnur, Russ Schriefer, Rich Schwarm, Brent Seaborn, Rick Shelby, Andrew Shore, Don Sipple, Robin Smith, Javier Soto, Fred Steeper, Bob Stevenson, Eric Tanenblatt, Heath Thompson, Jay Timmons, Warren Tompkins, Ted Van Der Meid, Dirk van Dongen, Jan van Lohuizen, Dick Wadhams, John Weaver, Tom Wilson, Dave Winston, Ginny Wolfe, and Fred Wszolek.

This article appears in the November 8, 2008 edition of National Journal Magazine.

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