Election 2008: The Results Are In
Here's how our Political Insiders fared in our election prediction contest. The winners are Democratic media consultant Bill Carrick and Republican communications strategist Todd Harris.
Outcome Democratic GOP Bill Todd Insiders Insiders Carrick Harris 1) Who will win the presidential election? Obama Obama Obama Obama Obama 2) Who will win each of these five states? Florida Obama Obama Obama Obama Obama Indiana Obama McCain McCain Obama McCain Missouri* McCain McCain McCain McCain McCain Montana McCain McCain McCain McCain McCain Pennsylvania Obama Obama Obama Obama Obama e>
4) Who will win these Senate races? Minnesota* Coleman Franken Coleman Franken Coleman Mississippi Wicker Wicker Wicker Wicker Wicker New Hampshire Shaheen Shaheen Shaheen Shaheen Shaheen North Carolina Hagan Hagan Hagan Hagan Hagan e>
4) Who will win these Senate races? Minnesota* Coleman Franken Coleman Franken Coleman Mississippi Wicker Wicker Wicker Wicker Wicker New Hampshire Shaheen Shaheen Shaheen Shaheen Shaheen North Carolina Hagan Hagan Hagan Hagan Hagane>
5) How many seats will Democrats pick up in the House?* 20 24 24 26 31 e>
6) Who will win these House races? Connecticut 04 Himes Himes Shays Himes Shays Pennsylvania 11 Kanjorski Barletta Kanjorski Kanjorski Kanjorski e>
7) Who will win this governor's race? North Carolina Perdue Perdue McCrory Perdue Perdue e>
8) Will the California gay-marriage ban initiative pass or fail? Pass Fail Fail Pass Pass e>
9) When will the loser of the presidential election concede? Before Before Before After Before e>
10) What will be the Electoral College tally?* Barack Obama 364 337 326 364 364 John McCain 174 201 212 174 174 e>
*For the purposes of this contest, Missouri was awarded to McCain and North Carolina to Obama even though official declarations had not been made by press time. In House and Senate races, candidates who were ahead at press time were deemed the winners. One point was awarded for each correct answer.
National Journal Insiders
Democratic Political Insiders Karen Ackerman, Jill Alper, David Axelrod, Brad Bannon, Dave Beattie, Andy Bechhoefer, Cornell Belcher, Mitchell W. Berger, Mike Berman, Donna Brazile, Mark Brewer, Ed Bruley, George Bruno, Deb Callahan, Bonnie Campbell, Bill Carrick, Martin J. Chavez, Tony Coelho, Jim Craig, Jerry Crawford, Stephanie Cutter, Jeff Danielson, Peter Daou, Jim Demers, Tad Devine, Debbie Dingell, Monica Dixon, Michael Donilon, Tom Donilon, Anita Dunn, Jeff Eller, Steve Elmendorf, Carter Eskew, Eric Eve, Vic Fazio, Peter Fenn, Scott Ferson, Gordon Fischer, Tina Flournoy, Don Foley, Don Fowler, Gina Glantz, Joe Grandmaison, Anna Greenberg, Stan Greenberg, Pat Griffin, Michael Gronstal, Marcia Hale, Paul Harstad, Laura Hartigan, Mike Henry, Leo Hindery, Jr., Harold Ickes, Marcus Jadotte, John Jameson, Steve Jarding, Jonathon Jones, Jim Jordan, Gale Kaufman, Shar Knutson, Kam Kuwata, Celinda Lake, David Lang, Sylvia Larsen, Chris Lehane, Jeff Link, Bill Lynch, Steve Marchand, Jim Margolis, Paul Maslin, Terry McAuliffe, Caroline McCarley, Susan McCue, Gerald McEntee, Tom McMahon, Phil McNamara, David Medina, Mark Mellman, John Merrigan, Steve Murphy, Janet Napolitano, David Nassar, Marcia Nichols, John Norris, Tom Ochs, Tom O'Donnell, Scott Parven, Jeffrey Peck, Debora Pignatelli, John Podesta, Tony Podesta, Bruce Reed, Mame Reiley, Steve Ricchetti, Susan Rice, Will Robinson, Steve Rosenthal, David Rudd, John Ryan, Wendy Sherman, Terry Shumaker, Phil Singer, Bob Slagle, Erik Smith, Doug Sosnik, Darry Sragow, Karl Struble, Katrina Swett, Sarah Swisher, Eric Tabor, Jeffrey Trammell, Ed Turlington, Mike Veon, Rick Wiener, Bridgette Williams, JoDee Winterhof, and Jim Zogby.
GOP Political Insiders Dan Allen, Stan Anderson, Gary Andres, Saulius (Saul) Anuzis, Rich Ashooh, Whit Ayres, Brett Bader, Mitch Bainwol, Gary Bauer, David Beckwith, Wayne Berman, Charlie Black, Kirk Blalock, Carmine Boal, Jeff Boeyink, Ron Bonjean, Jeff Buley, Luke Byars, Nick Calio, Danny Carroll, Ron Christie, Jim Cicconi, Cesar Conda, Jake Corman, Charlie Crist, Greg Crist, Diane Crookham-Johnson, Fergus Cullen, Rick Davis, Mike Dennehy, Ken Duberstein, Steve Duprey, Debi Durham, Frank Fahrenkopf, John Feehery, Don Fierce, Carl Forti, Alex Gage, Sam Geduldig, Benjamin Ginsberg, Bill Greener, Jonathan Grella, Lanny Griffith, Janet Mullins Grissom, Doug Gross, Todd Harris, Steve Hart, Christopher Healy, Ralph Hellmann, Chris Henick, Terry Holt, David Iannelli, Clark Judge, David Keating, David Kensinger, Bruce Keough, Bob Kjellander, Ed Kutler, Chris Lacivita, Jim Lake, Chuck Larson, Steve Lombardo, Kevin Madden, Joel Maiola, Gary Maloney, David Marin, Mary Matalin, Dan Mattoon, Bill McInturff, Mark McKinnon, Kyle McSlarrow, Ken Mehlman, Jim Merrill, Mike Murphy, Phil Musser, Ron Nehring, Terry Nelson, Neil Newhouse, David Norcross, Ziad Ojakli, Jack Oliver, Van B. Poole, Tom Rath, Scott Reed, David Rehr, Steve Roberts, Jason Roe, David Roederer, Ed Rogers, Dan Schnur, Russ Schriefer, Rich Schwarm, Brent Seaborn, Rick Shelby, Andrew Shore, Don Sipple, Robin Smith, Javier Soto, Fred Steeper, Bob Stevenson, Eric Tanenblatt, Heath Thompson, Jay Timmons, Warren Tompkins, Ted Van Der Meid, Dirk van Dongen, Jan van Lohuizen, Dick Wadhams, John Weaver, Tom Wilson, Dave Winston, Ginny Wolfe, and Fred Wszolek.
This article appears in the November 8, 2008, edition of National Journal Magazine.