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POLITICAL INSIDERS POLL

Political Insiders Poll

On a scale of zero (no chance) to 10 (virtual certainty), how likely is it that President Obama will win reelection?

DEMOCRATS (100 VOTES)

Average: 7.1

 

Slight chance (1-3): 0%
Moderate chance (4-6):  31%
Strong chance (7-10): 69%

Moderate chance (4-6)

“We will be returning to a 2000 or 2004 Electoral College squeaker election.”

 

“McCain won 47 percent. If you think Romney won’t win that same number, you’re a fool. I call that a close election.”

“The voters who matter like him, are disappointed in the job he is doing, and have serious doubts about the apparent Republican nominee. On these facts, the nod goes to the devil they know.”

“It’ll be close, but Obama’s strength with nonwhite voters may be enough to eke it out over Romney.”

“As long as the Fed keeps up the slow and steady support, Obama will have a positive-trajectory economy to win on.”

 

“Romney is such a lousy candidate. Despite a long list of reasons why Obama shouldn’t win, he will.”

Strong chance (7-10)

“Close, yes. But this isn’t the year of the millionaire corporate raider.”

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“Economy rebounding, Mitt’s disastrous primary performance, and the head-to-head matchup all work in his favor.”

“Demographics are destiny, and they really favor Obama, who also understands them.”

“By November no one worried about their job will believe Romney is worried about their job, too.”

“Mitt Romney could barely get the Republican base excited. It smells like 1996, but who knows, it might even be 1984.”

“Immigration, the Ryan plan, the ‘Buffett Rule,’ Osama [bin Laden], and GM. Not as close as people think.”

 

On a scale of zero (no chance) to 10 (virtual certainty), how likely is it that President Obama will win reelection?

REPUBLICANS (99 VOTES)

Average: 5

Slight chance (1-3): 11%
Moderate chance (4-6): 76%
Strong chance (7-10): 13%

Slight chance (1-3)

“Tough to win with an economy that’s softening once more [and] being overseen by a guy who never worked in the private sector.”

“If the election is about his record, the president can’t win. He will try hard to avoid running on his record, and he might succeed.”

Moderate chance (4-6)

“I’m starting to sense another 1980.”

“This election can truly go either way—and could make 2000 look like a landslide.”

“The lessening of the economic headwinds have made this race a virtual toss-up.”

“If it is a referendum on Obama and the economy, Obama loses.”

“The ‘black swan’ (unforeseen major event) will likely come from abroad, melting Obama’s numbers. He is simply out of his depth.”

“[The] election is a referendum on his economic policies. They are not that great.”

“The demographics are on his side. By the fall, we Republicans will be wondering what happened to the Southwest swing states.”

“The Republicans have the potential of snatching defeat from the jaws of victory—have to try to avoid further alienation of women and Hispanics, but economy will continue to be the issue.”

Strong chance (7-10)

“His strategy is to lay the blame for the economic crisis on the Bush administration, offer no solutions for the future, and draw out Republicans on their extreme social agenda—a trap they will fall into with relative ease.”

 

How do you think the immigration issue will affect your party’s prospects in November?

DEMOCRATS (100 VOTES)

Help a lot: 34%
Help a little: 47%
No effect: 14%
Hurt a little: 5%
Hurt a lot: 0%

Help a lot

“Mitt’s ‘deport-them-all’ primary position will be hard to walk back.”

“Can you say Nevada, Colorado, Florida, New Mexico?”

“If I was a Republican playing the long game, I’d stop trying to throw people out of the country who’ve lived here a long time. The long-run trend is bad for Rs.”

“Put bluntly, Latinos think Republicans hate them.”

“This issue will pay dividends for Democrats for generations to come.”

Help a little

“Would be more except for the increasing evangelism of Hispanic-Americans eligible to vote.”

“Immigration has the potential to inspire turnout on the Democratic side. While the same might be true for Republicans, the turnout would not be coming from a lower-turnout group.”

This article appears in the April 28, 2012 edition of National Journal Magazine.

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