Insiders: Who Will Win on Tuesday?

Plus: Will Hurricane Sandy affect the presidential contest?

Updated: November 1, 2012 | 9:31 p.m.
November 1, 2012 | 11:22 a.m.

“Poor Romney. Even the Red Cross says, ‘No, thank you’ on the canned goods.”

“Romney is deliciously on the record, in 2011, saying, ‘We can’t afford’ federal disaster relief.”

“GOP’s recurring theme against Obama has been leadership.... How ’bout now?”

“All Obama has to do is act presidential while Romney awkwardly campaigns.”

“Romney has a history of insensitive gaffes. This would be the wrong time to tell people without power and water that they should spend the week at their summer homes.”

Romney

“It is going to add to voters’ unease and drive the wrong-track numbers.”

Neither

“It’s a wash (so to speak); the president gains by being presidential, but loses in early-vote activity and the possibility that power outages disrupt voting in some key states.”

“Mother Nature is an independent.”

“Those of us in the East are consumed by Sandy, but the race is in Ohio.”

 

Which presidential candidate will benefit the most from disruptions caused by Hurricane Sandy?

REPUBLICANS (98 VOTES)

Obama: 38%
Romney: 16%
Neither: 46%

Obama

“President Obama desperately needed an opportunity to look presidential. Disaster response might be it.”

“It allows him to appear presidential and overshadows the growing scandal in Benghazi.”

“These things always favor those at the levers of government.”

“Romney had his momentum halted.”

“Barring a serious mistake, a crisis works to the benefit of the incumbent.”

“Disaster cleanup is one of the few times people like having government around.”

Romney

“It will freeze the race with Romney ascending.”

“Nobody really knows but to the extent it limits early voting, then perhaps it helps Romney just a bit.”

“Obama’s campaign couldn’t afford him not on the road.”

Neither

“Sandy is an equal-opportunity tragedy and nuisance.”

“It’s a push. Obama gets to be presidential, but not in states that matter, whereas his much-vaunted ground game has been significantly interrupted.”

“Unless New York and Jersey become battleground states, Sandy has no impact.”

“If President Obama had the empathy gene that Bill Clinton had, he would be able to turn Hurricane Sandy into political mood music. But he doesn’t, so he won’t.”

“Great, he stopped all to watch over relief efforts from the White House. Too bad he couldn’t find similar time to help Americans under attack for seven hours in Libya.”

_________

Democratic Political Insiders Jill Alper, John Anzalone, Brad Bannon, Dave Beattie, Andy Bechhoefer, Cornell Belcher, Matt Bennett, Mitchell W. Berger, Mike Berman, Stephanie Bosh, Paul Brathwaite, Donna Brazile, Mark Brewer, Ed Bruley, George Bruno, Bonnie Campbell, Bill Carrick, Guy Cecil, Martin J. Chavez, Tony Coelho, Larry Cohen, Jerry Crawford, Brendan Daly, Jeff Danielson, Peter Daou, Howard Dean, Scott DeFife, Jim Demers, Tad Devine, David Di Martino, Debbie Dingell, Monica Dixon, Patrick Dorton, Pat Dujakovich, Anita Dunn, Jeff Eller, Steve Elmendorf, Carter Eskew, Vic Fazio, Peter Fenn, Scott Ferson, Jim Fleischmann, Tina Flournoy, Don Foley, Jeffrey Forbes, Vincent Frillici, Gina Glantz, Niles Godes, John Michael Gonzalez, Joe Grandmaison, Anna Greenberg, Stan Greenberg, Pat Griffin, Larry Grisolano, Michael Gronstal, Lisa Grove, Marcia Hale, Jill Hanauer, Dick Harpootlian, Paul Harstad, Laura Hartigan, Doug Hattaway, Mike Henry, Karen Hicks, Leo Hindery Jr., Harold Ickes, Marcus Jadotte, John Jameson, Steve Jarding, Jonathon Jones, Jim Jordan, Gale Kaufman, Lisa Kountoupes, Celinda Lake, David Lang, Penny Lee, Chris Lehane, Jeff Link, Bob Maloney, Jim Manley, Steve Marchand, Jim Margolis, Paul Maslin, Keith Mason, Susan McCue, Gerald McEntee, Steve McMahon, Tom McMahon, Phil McNamara, David Medina, Michael Meehan, Mark Mellman, John Merrigan, Michael Monroe, Steve Murphy, Janet Napolitano, David Nassar, Marcia Nichols, John Norris, Tom Ochs, Tom O’Donnell, Jeffrey Peck, Debora Pignatelli, Tony Podesta, Jefrey Pollock, Jack Quinn, Larry Rasky, Mame Reiley, Ed Rendell, Steve Ricchetti, Will Robinson, Steve Rosenthal, David Rudd, Ryan Rudominer, John Ryan, Michael Sargeant, Stephanie Schriock, Terry Shumaker, Sean Sinclair, Phil Singer, Erik Smith, Doug Sosnik, Greg Speed, Darry Sragow, Ken Strasma, Doug Thornell, Jeffrey Trammell, Ed Turlington, Rick Wiener, James Williams, JoDee Winterhof, Brian Wolff, Jon Youngdahl, and Jim Zogby.

GOP Political Insiders Dan Allen, Stan Anderson, Gary Andres, Saulius (Saul) Anuzis, Rich Ashooh, Whit Ayres, Brett Bader, Mitch Bainwol, Brian Baker, Gary Bauer, David Beckwith, Paul Bennecke, Clark Benson, Wayne Berman, Brian Bieron, Charlie Black, Kirk Blalock, Carmine Boal, Jeff Boeyink, Ron Bonjean, Jeff Buley, Luke Byars, Nick Calio, Al Cardenas, Danny Carroll, Alex Castellanos, Ron Christie, Jim Cicconi, Jonathan Collegio, Rob Collins, Cesar Conda, Jake Corman, Scott Cottington, Jay Cranford, Greg Crist, Diane Crookham-Johnson, Fergus Cullen, Tom Davis, Mike Dennehy, Ken Duberstein, Debi Durham, Sara Fagen, Frank Fahrenkopf, John Feehery, Don Fierce, Mindy Finn, Carl Forti, Alex Gage, Bruce A. Gates, Sam Geduldig, Adam Geller, Benjamin Ginsberg, David Girard-diCarlo, Bill Greener, Jonathan Grella, Lanny Griffith, Janet Mullins Grissom, Doug Gross, Todd Harris, Steve Hart, Christopher Healy, Ralph Hellmann, Chris Henick, Terry Holt, David Iannelli, Ed Ingle, Jim Innocenzi, Clark Judge, David Keating, David Kensinger, Bob Kjellander, Ed Kutler, Chris LaCivita, Jim Lake, Steven Law, Steve Lombardo, Kevin Madden, Joel Maiola, Gary Maloney, David Marin, Mary Matalin, Dan Mattoon, Brian McCormack, Mark McKinnon, Kyle McSlarrow, Ken Mehlman, Jim Merrill, Lisa Camooso Miller, Tim Morrison, Mike Murphy, Phil Musser, Ron Nehring, Terry Nelson, Neil Newhouse, David Norcross, Ziad Ojakli, Jack Oliver, Todd Olsen, Kevin O’Neill, Connie Partoyan, Billy Piper, Van B. Poole, Tom Rath, Scott Reed, David Rehr, Tom Reynolds, Steve Roberts, Jason Roe, David Roederer, Dan Schnur, Russ Schriefer, Rich Schwarm, Brent Seaborn, Rick Shelby, Andrew Shore, Kevin Shuvalov, Don Sipple, Ken Spain, Fred Steeper, Bob Stevenson, Terry Sullivan, David Tamasi, Eric Tanenblatt, Richard Temple, Heath Thompson, Jay Timmons, Warren Tompkins, Ted Van Der Meid, Dirk van Dongen, Jan van Lohuizen, Stewart Verdery, Dick Wadhams, John Weaver, Lezlee Westine, Dave Winston, Ginny Wolfe, Fred Wszolek, and Matthew Zablud.

This article appeared in print as “Political Insiders Poll.”

This article appears in the Nov. 3, 2012, edition of National Journal.

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