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Insiders: Who Will Win on Tuesday? Insiders: Who Will Win on Tuesday?

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Insiders: Who Will Win on Tuesday?

Plus: Will Hurricane Sandy affect the presidential contest?

On a scale of zero (no chance) to 10 (virtual certainty), how likely is it that President Obama will win reelection?


Average (now): 7.2
Average (9/22): 7.7
Average (4/28): 7.1


Slight chance (1-3): 1%
Moderate chance (4-6): 26%
Strong chance (7-10): 74%

Moderate chance (4-6)

“This was always going to be a very close race, one that will be won by inches, not even feet, much less yards. By and large, the Obama campaign has done a pretty good job of keeping Romney off balance; Romney has occasionally incurred self-inflicted wounds, so the case for kicking out the none-too-popular incumbent will probably fall just a little short.”


“More likely than not. But ‘not’ suddenly is a real possibility.”

Strong chance (7-10)

“I refuse to believe otherwise.”

“It is a race between the quants of the Obama campaign versus the quacks (John Sununu, Richard Mourdock, etc.) on the Romney team. Quants win! Ground game matters.”


“He has the firewall of the Midwest—Ohio, Wisconsin, Iowa. Romney’s false ad about Jeep moving its production to China will hurt him in Ohio.”

“Romney has not gained ground in the key battleground states. It is hard to see him winning Florida, Virginia, Colorado, and Ohio, and it looks like he needs all of them.”

“While the recent momentum has not been good to the president, his campaign, with help from supporters, will still have the advantage on the ground game.”

“I was a 9 before the debates—Romney has momentum but still has a difficult electoral map.”

“After a momentary scare, Obama’s on a course to victory.”

“Nate Silver knows.”

“It’s all about the swing states. Every national poll that’s reported is increasingly irrelevant as the president leads in Ohio, Wisconsin, and others.”


On a scale of zero (no chance) to 10 (virtual certainty), how likely is it that President Obama will win reelection?


Average (now): 4.6
Average (9/22): 5.8
Average (4/28): 5

Slight chance (1-3): 17%
Moderate chance (4-6): 76%
Strong chance (7-10): 6%

Slight chance (1-3)

“This is the first time that I really feel the momentum swinging to Romney. It has been a slow progression for the Republican since early September, but it is steady, and no matter what Obama throws at him, it doesn’t hurt.”

“Democrats are doing a great job keeping this interesting with tortured logic about cell phones and secret, undetectable enthusiasm, but Mr. Obama looks cooked. Down consistently a week out, he’s no longer selling hope but relying on it, blindly.”

Moderate chance (4-6)

“It all comes down to Ohio.”

“The trend is definitely in favor of Romney—with independents leading the way.”

“Big Mo is wearing a Romney jersey.”

“I have never had less of a feel about a race. All the momentum seems to be with Romney, but who knows.”

“Election Day can’t come fast enough for Obama.”

“Stuck at 47, 48 [percent] won’t do it for an incumbent.”

“Obama’s held on to his defensive perimeter longer than anyone expected, but he’s also left his flanks exposed in Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Minnesota.”

“Romney continues to gain strength as undecided voters answer the key question:  Do I want another four years of this?”

“Tie goes to challenger as indies break.”

Strong chance (7-10)

“Romney has fought him to the firewall, but the firewall is performing exactly as it was intended.”


Which presidential candidate will benefit the most from disruptions caused by Hurricane Sandy?


Obama: 67%
Romney: 9%
Neither: 24%


“Especially if Romney’s attitude toward [the Federal Emergency Management Agency] is exposed. Otherwise, just takes Romney off his momentum message, which is good for the president.”

“Obama marshaling federal resources, winning praise from GOP governors versus Romney’s ‘Canned-food drives can replace FEMA’ attempt at relevance.”

“You can’t do better than having Gov. [Chris] Christie singing your praises!”

“Being the commander in chief instead of a candidate is always a plus. Add the facts that he is doing a good job and voters still remember [Hurricane] Katrina, and you might have a huge plus.”

This article appears in the November 3, 2012 edition of National Journal Magazine.

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