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Magazine / POLITICAL INSIDERS POLL

Insiders: Who Will Win on Tuesday?

Plus: Will Hurricane Sandy affect the presidential contest?

November 1, 2012

On a scale of zero (no chance) to 10 (virtual certainty), how likely is it that President Obama will win reelection?

DEMOCRATS (102 VOTES)

Average (now): 7.2
Average (9/22): 7.7
Average (4/28): 7.1

Slight chance (1-3): 1%
Moderate chance (4-6): 26%
Strong chance (7-10): 74%

 

Moderate chance (4-6)

“This was always going to be a very close race, one that will be won by inches, not even feet, much less yards. By and large, the Obama campaign has done a pretty good job of keeping Romney off balance; Romney has occasionally incurred self-inflicted wounds, so the case for kicking out the none-too-popular incumbent will probably fall just a little short.”

“More likely than not. But ‘not’ suddenly is a real possibility.”

Strong chance (7-10)

“I refuse to believe otherwise.”

“It is a race between the quants of the Obama campaign versus the quacks (John Sununu, Richard Mourdock, etc.) on the Romney team. Quants win! Ground game matters.”

“He has the firewall of the Midwest—Ohio, Wisconsin, Iowa. Romney’s false ad about Jeep moving its production to China will hurt him in Ohio.”

“Romney has not gained ground in the key battleground states. It is hard to see him winning Florida, Virginia, Colorado, and Ohio, and it looks like he needs all of them.”

“While the recent momentum has not been good to the president, his campaign, with help from supporters, will still have the advantage on the ground game.”

“I was a 9 before the debates—Romney has momentum but still has a difficult electoral map.”

“After a momentary scare, Obama’s on a course to victory.”

“Nate Silver knows.”

“It’s all about the swing states. Every national poll that’s reported is increasingly irrelevant as the president leads in Ohio, Wisconsin, and others.”

 

On a scale of zero (no chance) to 10 (virtual certainty), how likely is it that President Obama will win reelection?

REPUBLICANS (98 VOTES)

Average (now): 4.6
Average (9/22): 5.8
Average (4/28): 5

Slight chance (1-3): 17%
Moderate chance (4-6): 76%
Strong chance (7-10): 6%

Slight chance (1-3)

“This is the first time that I really feel the momentum swinging to Romney. It has been a slow progression for the Republican since early September, but it is steady, and no matter what Obama throws at him, it doesn’t hurt.”

“Democrats are doing a great job keeping this interesting with tortured logic about cell phones and secret, undetectable enthusiasm, but Mr. Obama looks cooked. Down consistently a week out, he’s no longer selling hope but relying on it, blindly.”

Moderate chance (4-6)

“It all comes down to Ohio.”

“The trend is definitely in favor of Romney—with independents leading the way.”

“Big Mo is wearing a Romney jersey.”

“I have never had less of a feel about a race. All the momentum seems to be with Romney, but who knows.”

“Election Day can’t come fast enough for Obama.”

“Stuck at 47, 48 [percent] won’t do it for an incumbent.”

“Obama’s held on to his defensive perimeter longer than anyone expected, but he’s also left his flanks exposed in Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Minnesota.”

“Romney continues to gain strength as undecided voters answer the key question:  Do I want another four years of this?”

“Tie goes to challenger as indies break.”

Strong chance (7-10)

“Romney has fought him to the firewall, but the firewall is performing exactly as it was intended.”

 

Which presidential candidate will benefit the most from disruptions caused by Hurricane Sandy?

DEMOCRATS (102 VOTES)

Obama: 67%
Romney: 9%
Neither: 24%

Obama

“Especially if Romney’s attitude toward [the Federal Emergency Management Agency] is exposed. Otherwise, just takes Romney off his momentum message, which is good for the president.”

“Obama marshaling federal resources, winning praise from GOP governors versus Romney’s ‘Canned-food drives can replace FEMA’ attempt at relevance.”

“You can’t do better than having Gov. [Chris] Christie singing your praises!”

“Being the commander in chief instead of a candidate is always a plus. Add the facts that he is doing a good job and voters still remember [Hurricane] Katrina, and you might have a huge plus.”

“Poor Romney. Even the Red Cross says, ‘No, thank you’ on the canned goods.”

“Romney is deliciously on the record, in 2011, saying, ‘We can’t afford’ federal disaster relief.”

“GOP’s recurring theme against Obama has been leadership.... How ’bout now?”

“All Obama has to do is act presidential while Romney awkwardly campaigns.”

“Romney has a history of insensitive gaffes. This would be the wrong time to tell people without power and water that they should spend the week at their summer homes.”

Romney

“It is going to add to voters’ unease and drive the wrong-track numbers.”

Neither

“It’s a wash (so to speak); the president gains by being presidential, but loses in early-vote activity and the possibility that power outages disrupt voting in some key states.”

“Mother Nature is an independent.”

“Those of us in the East are consumed by Sandy, but the race is in Ohio.”

 

Which presidential candidate will benefit the most from disruptions caused by Hurricane Sandy?

REPUBLICANS (98 VOTES)

Obama: 38%
Romney: 16%
Neither: 46%

Obama

“President Obama desperately needed an opportunity to look presidential. Disaster response might be it.”

“It allows him to appear presidential and overshadows the growing scandal in Benghazi.”

“These things always favor those at the levers of government.”

“Romney had his momentum halted.”

“Barring a serious mistake, a crisis works to the benefit of the incumbent.”

“Disaster cleanup is one of the few times people like having government around.”

Romney

“It will freeze the race with Romney ascending.”

“Nobody really knows but to the extent it limits early voting, then perhaps it helps Romney just a bit.”

“Obama’s campaign couldn’t afford him not on the road.”

Neither

“Sandy is an equal-opportunity tragedy and nuisance.”

“It’s a push. Obama gets to be presidential, but not in states that matter, whereas his much-vaunted ground game has been significantly interrupted.”

“Unless New York and Jersey become battleground states, Sandy has no impact.”

“If President Obama had the empathy gene that Bill Clinton had, he would be able to turn Hurricane Sandy into political mood music. But he doesn’t, so he won’t.”

“Great, he stopped all to watch over relief efforts from the White House. Too bad he couldn’t find similar time to help Americans under attack for seven hours in Libya.”

_________

Democratic Political Insiders Jill Alper, John Anzalone, Brad Bannon, Dave Beattie, Andy Bechhoefer, Cornell Belcher, Matt Bennett, Mitchell W. Berger, Mike Berman, Stephanie Bosh, Paul Brathwaite, Donna Brazile, Mark Brewer, Ed Bruley, George Bruno, Bonnie Campbell, Bill Carrick, Guy Cecil, Martin J. Chavez, Tony Coelho, Larry Cohen, Jerry Crawford, Brendan Daly, Jeff Danielson, Peter Daou, Howard Dean, Scott DeFife, Jim Demers, Tad Devine, David Di Martino, Debbie Dingell, Monica Dixon, Patrick Dorton, Pat Dujakovich, Anita Dunn, Jeff Eller, Steve Elmendorf, Carter Eskew, Vic Fazio, Peter Fenn, Scott Ferson, Jim Fleischmann, Tina Flournoy, Don Foley, Jeffrey Forbes, Vincent Frillici, Gina Glantz, Niles Godes, John Michael Gonzalez, Joe Grandmaison, Anna Greenberg, Stan Greenberg, Pat Griffin, Larry Grisolano, Michael Gronstal, Lisa Grove, Marcia Hale, Jill Hanauer, Dick Harpootlian, Paul Harstad, Laura Hartigan, Doug Hattaway, Mike Henry, Karen Hicks, Leo Hindery Jr., Harold Ickes, Marcus Jadotte, John Jameson, Steve Jarding, Jonathon Jones, Jim Jordan, Gale Kaufman, Lisa Kountoupes, Celinda Lake, David Lang, Penny Lee, Chris Lehane, Jeff Link, Bob Maloney, Jim Manley, Steve Marchand, Jim Margolis, Paul Maslin, Keith Mason, Susan McCue, Gerald McEntee, Steve McMahon, Tom McMahon, Phil McNamara, David Medina, Michael Meehan, Mark Mellman, John Merrigan, Michael Monroe, Steve Murphy, Janet Napolitano, David Nassar, Marcia Nichols, John Norris, Tom Ochs, Tom O’Donnell, Jeffrey Peck, Debora Pignatelli, Tony Podesta, Jefrey Pollock, Jack Quinn, Larry Rasky, Mame Reiley, Ed Rendell, Steve Ricchetti, Will Robinson, Steve Rosenthal, David Rudd, Ryan Rudominer, John Ryan, Michael Sargeant, Stephanie Schriock, Terry Shumaker, Sean Sinclair, Phil Singer, Erik Smith, Doug Sosnik, Greg Speed, Darry Sragow, Ken Strasma, Doug Thornell, Jeffrey Trammell, Ed Turlington, Rick Wiener, James Williams, JoDee Winterhof, Brian Wolff, Jon Youngdahl, and Jim Zogby.

GOP Political Insiders Dan Allen, Stan Anderson, Gary Andres, Saulius (Saul) Anuzis, Rich Ashooh, Whit Ayres, Brett Bader, Mitch Bainwol, Brian Baker, Gary Bauer, David Beckwith, Paul Bennecke, Clark Benson, Wayne Berman, Brian Bieron, Charlie Black, Kirk Blalock, Carmine Boal, Jeff Boeyink, Ron Bonjean, Jeff Buley, Luke Byars, Nick Calio, Al Cardenas, Danny Carroll, Alex Castellanos, Ron Christie, Jim Cicconi, Jonathan Collegio, Rob Collins, Cesar Conda, Jake Corman, Scott Cottington, Jay Cranford, Greg Crist, Diane Crookham-Johnson, Fergus Cullen, Tom Davis, Mike Dennehy, Ken Duberstein, Debi Durham, Sara Fagen, Frank Fahrenkopf, John Feehery, Don Fierce, Mindy Finn, Carl Forti, Alex Gage, Bruce A. Gates, Sam Geduldig, Adam Geller, Benjamin Ginsberg, David Girard-diCarlo, Bill Greener, Jonathan Grella, Lanny Griffith, Janet Mullins Grissom, Doug Gross, Todd Harris, Steve Hart, Christopher Healy, Ralph Hellmann, Chris Henick, Terry Holt, David Iannelli, Ed Ingle, Jim Innocenzi, Clark Judge, David Keating, David Kensinger, Bob Kjellander, Ed Kutler, Chris LaCivita, Jim Lake, Steven Law, Steve Lombardo, Kevin Madden, Joel Maiola, Gary Maloney, David Marin, Mary Matalin, Dan Mattoon, Brian McCormack, Mark McKinnon, Kyle McSlarrow, Ken Mehlman, Jim Merrill, Lisa Camooso Miller, Tim Morrison, Mike Murphy, Phil Musser, Ron Nehring, Terry Nelson, Neil Newhouse, David Norcross, Ziad Ojakli, Jack Oliver, Todd Olsen, Kevin O’Neill, Connie Partoyan, Billy Piper, Van B. Poole, Tom Rath, Scott Reed, David Rehr, Tom Reynolds, Steve Roberts, Jason Roe, David Roederer, Dan Schnur, Russ Schriefer, Rich Schwarm, Brent Seaborn, Rick Shelby, Andrew Shore, Kevin Shuvalov, Don Sipple, Ken Spain, Fred Steeper, Bob Stevenson, Terry Sullivan, David Tamasi, Eric Tanenblatt, Richard Temple, Heath Thompson, Jay Timmons, Warren Tompkins, Ted Van Der Meid, Dirk van Dongen, Jan van Lohuizen, Stewart Verdery, Dick Wadhams, John Weaver, Lezlee Westine, Dave Winston, Ginny Wolfe, Fred Wszolek, and Matthew Zablud.

This article appeared in print as “Political Insiders Poll.”

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