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POLITICAL INSIDERS POLL

Political Insiders Poll

Between Mitt Romney and Rick Santorum, who is most likely to win the Republican nomination for president?

Democrats (101 votes)

Mitt Romney: 95%
Rick Santorum: 5%

 

Mitt Romney

“The Republicans always go with the establishment pick, no matter how many hoops they make him jump through or how many times they flirt with the extremists.”

“Romney has too much infrastructure in place, and Santorum has none.”

 

“Money is still king. But Romney emerges with sky-high negatives.”

“Romney will wear him down. He’s so damaged, though, that he’s toast in the fall.”

“He’ll limp across the finish line.”

“After Super Tuesday, a deal that helps both teams and the party could be in the works.”

 

“Just barely, Mitt. He is beginning to look like Hillary in this race. Of course, Rick is no Obama, but you get the point.”

“Santorum’s many flaws will appear [now that he’s finally in the spotlight], and Romney’s money will carry him limping through the nomination.”

“He will simply overwhelm with money, but it will continue to take a heavy toll on Romney’s image and poll numbers.”

“Mitt Romney may have wanted to destroy Newt Gingrich a few weeks ago, but today, Newt’s his best friend, because as long as Newt’s in the race, Mitt’s nomination is secure. And if Newt goes away any time soon, Mitt’s nomination will, too.”

“Mitt is still the front-runner and has the money to ride this thing out. The way things are going, though, the GOP may soon be wistfully dreaming about the good old days when they had candidates they could unite behind, like John McCain.”

“It is still Mitt’s to lose, but he is doing a job of losing it.”

Rick Santorum

“Romney just can’t close the deal. Money can’t buy you love!”

“Romney is worse at closing the deal than a high school sophomore.”

“Primaries are all about the base. The GOP base doesn’t trust that Romney is indeed what he is trying to be, and all the money in the world ain’t gonna change that.”

 

Between Mitt Romney and Rick Santorum, who is most likely to win the Republican nomination for president?

Republicans (102 votes)

Mitt Romney: 89%
Rick Santorum: 9%
Neither (volunteered): 2%

Mitt Romney

“Even though some will not be thrilled with Romney, he has the resources, organization, and momentum, plus a favorable calendar. But it won’t be over for a while.”

“The person with the most money and the best organization STILL has the most delegates. This will never change.”

“More than anything, Republicans want to beat Obama. Increasingly, they realize that neither Rick nor Newt has a snowball’s chance of doing that.”

“Romney keeps tripping over himself. Assuming he can win in Michigan and Arizona, then he should finally start to ascend.”

“In addition to money and organization, Romney has one important asset: Newt’s ego won’t let him give up.”

“Santorum’s campaign is slapdash and sloppy. He can win only with a complete collapse of the Romney machine.”

“Romney, but not with very high odds. Santorum will win Michigan, and I give it a 30 percent chance that the nomination goes all the way to the convention.”

“But if Santorum keeps winning primaries, the convention could be deadlocked and an alternative could emerge.”

“He’ll win on points, not a TKO, in a long grind through many states. He’s relentless and focused and better funded.”

“Santorum is a PT boat circling the HMS Romney. Rick doesn’t have enough torpedoes to sink it.”

Rick Santorum

“Santorum has authenticity. Romney is authenticity-challenged.”

“The president has set up his whole ‘Occupy movement’ campaign to portray Mitt as an uncaring, out-of-touch 1-percenter and to win on class envy. When Mitt loses his electability argument against the president, the base goes with its heart.”

Neither

“Hopefully neither, and the convention will save us from ourselves.”

 

Who will ultimately benefit the most from the controversy over the Obama administration’s new contraception-coverage policy?

Democrats (101 votes)

President Obama: 75%
Republicans: 23%
Other (volunteered): 2%

President Obama

“The issue has become about access to contraception and helps President Obama enormously. It is mobilizing not just the progressive base but also independents, and it may be the single issue powerful enough to move Republican women to vote Democratic.”

This article appears in the February 18, 2012 edition of National Journal Magazine.

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