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Insiders: Immigration Reform Likely to Pass Congress Insiders: Immigration Reform Likely to Pass Congress

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Magazine

POLITICAL INSIDERS POLL

Insiders: Immigration Reform Likely to Pass Congress

What is the likelihood of comprehensive immigration reform, including a pathway to citizenship, passing Congress this year?

DEMOCRATS (107 VOTES)

Very likely: 39%
Somewhat likely: 50%
Somewhat unlikely: 8%
Very unlikely: 3%

 

Very likely

“GOP has gone from bigotry to opportunism faster than Sarah Palin can take down a caribou.”

“To quote John McCain: ‘Look at the election.’ ”

 

“The GOP has backed itself into a corner, and citizenship is the only way out.”

“Si se puede.”

“There’s pressure on both parties to do a deal. Gratitude for the Dems, fear for the GOP.”

Somewhat likely

 

“Bipartisan legislation flows from political self-interest.”

“Both parties have incentives to support it, and it likely will pass the Senate. The House is another matter.”

“Bipartisan cover is a good thing these days.”

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“Republicans who run statewide or those with an eye toward regaining the White House know they need to renegotiate their relationship with the Hispanic communities. Unfortunately, those who run in safe House seats—and tend to represent the wackiest wing of the GOP—are in no rush.”

“Dems want to and Republicans have to, but it’s still Washington.”

“Congressional ‘gangs’ almost never produce things that pass, but with the leaders involved, this time might be different.”

Somewhat unlikely

“Hard to see a path to citizenship getting a majority of the majority in the House.”

Very unlikely

“It is like cybersecurity, climate change, and tax reform. Very important. Very political. Very hard.”

 

What is the likelihood of comprehensive immigration reform, including a pathway to citizenship, passing Congress this year?

REPUBLICANS (94 VOTES)

Very likely: 25%
Somewhat likely: 53%
Somewhat unlikely: 20%
Very unlikely: 2%

Very likely

“The time has come. The votes are there.”

“Republicans get over their headache, after banging into the wall for years.”

“[Sen. Marco] Rubio is to immigration policy as Nixon is to China.”

“Republicans cannot afford to block this again and remain a relevant party.”

Somewhat likely

“Do the Dems want the issue or want a solution? Does the GOP really want to refight this issue at the polls every two years?”

“The odds have improved, but I don’t think enough has changed in the politics of this issue to give it good odds. Radio talk is not going to change its tune, nor is labor.”

“Enough Republicans want to stop the bleeding that it will pass, unless D’s decide they’ll keep moving the goalposts on eligibility to avoid a reasonable compromise.”

“Both parties know their livelihood depends on it.”

“At least a few rational people in the GOP recognize that the Republican Party has to get a more reasonable position on immigration.”

Somewhat unlikely

“Hard to see how an amnesty bill makes it through the House.”

“Something will pass—and it may include something like a path to citizenship—but it will not be comprehensive.”

Very unlikely

“The need is real; the commitment is, unfortunately, happy talk.”

 

Which one of the following would you say is the area in which the Republican Party needs the most improvement?

DEMOCRATS (106 VOTES)

Message: 21%
Charismatic leaders: 1%
Policy prescriptions: 57%
Better campaign technology: 2%
Other: 20%

Message

“They are perceived as being beholden to 1 percent of the population.”

“They are waaaaay out of touch with young voters and people of color.”

“ ‘We hate Obama’ is not a message.”

Charismatic leaders

“The bench of governors should help, given the numbers.”

Policy prescriptions

“You can’t tweet/Facebook your way out of transvaginal ultrasounds. #govtoutofmybedroom.”

“Too many of the GOP policy prescriptions only benefit the rich and large corporations. They need a real middle-class agenda and commitment to diversity in the party.”

“The voice of tea partiers and social conservatives is killing any innovative, free-market ideas from getting traction. They need more than Jack Kemp’s energy—they need Jack Kemp’s ideas!”

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