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POLITICAL INSIDERS POLL

Political Insiders Poll

On a scale of zero (no chance) to 10 (virtual certainty), how likely are the Republicans to take over the Senate in November?

DEMOCRATS (104 VOTES)

KEY:
Low (0-3)
Moderate (4-6)
High (7-10)

 

September 2012
Average: 3.1

59% (Low)
40% (Moderate)
1% (High)

February 2012
Average: 5.2

16% (Low)
62% (Moderate)
23% (High)

September 2011
Average: 5.6

11% (Low)
61% (Moderate)
30% (High)

 

May 2011
Average: 5.0

20% (Low)
59% (Moderate)
21% (High)

 

Slight chance (0-3)

“It’s not just the Todd Akin rape comments; it’s that Mitt Romney is a drag on Senate candidates in close races—see Scott Brown in Massachusetts and George Allen in Virginia, as well as Tommy Thompson in Wisconsin. Democrats may not win all three, but their chances are much better of late.”

 

“Slip, slip, slipping away.”

“There’s a path, but it’s gotten narrower by the day. Democratic candidates are trending up with presidential numbers in swing states and running superior races in non-battleground states.”

“The [National Republican Senatorial Committee] recruited done an extraordinary job of putting Republican seats (Arizona, Massachusetts, Nevada, and Indiana) in play.”

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“Romney + Akin = 2 more years in the minority.”

“If Karl Rove abandons Romney and moves all of his money down-ballot, that will hurt in places like North Dakota. But then again, sinking ships are not that attractive to voters, so Romney’s troubles could really help our Senate candidates.”

Moderate chance (4-6)

“This should’ve been a slam dunk, but Dems have some surprisingly strong candidates, and Republicans are just fumbling race after race.”

“Romney’s stumbles hurt, but their big super PAC money may give their candidates enough distance to overcome him—and there is a long way to go.”

“The tea party pushed Olympia Snowe and Dick Lugar out of their races and Todd Akin into his. The GOP has only itself to blame in losing the chance they had to take the Senate.”

 

On a scale of zero (no chance) to 10 (virtual certainty), how likely are the Republicans to take over the Senate in November?

REPUBLICANS (91 VOTES)

KEY:
Low (0-3)
Moderate (4-6)
High (7-10)

September 2012
Average: 4.4

24% (Low)
71% (Moderate)
4% (High)

February 2012
Average: 6.9

1% (Low)
32% (Moderate)
66% (High)

September 2011
Average: 7.4

1% (Low)
22% (Moderate)
79% (High)

May 2011
Average: 6.7

2% (Low)
41% (Moderate)
57% (High)

 

Slight chance (0-3)

“Impossible not to think things are trending down.”

“The math simply does not work. The three M’s—Maine, Massachusetts, and Missouri—are unlikely. Hard to see how you get to 50, much less 51, without two of those three.”

Moderate chance (4-6)

“The Senate will follow the outcome at the top of the ticket.”

“Sleeper races for the GOP: Maine and Missouri.”

“Barring a total collapse at the top of the ticket, we can still get there. Question is, will we have to make the checks-and-balances argument to finish the job?”

“Still even money. Obama will be a drag in Montana and Wisconsin. [Chances in] Connecticut now very real for the GOP.”

“Should have run the table. Now they’re just running scared.”

“Close races in Nevada, Virginia, Wisconsin, and Massachusetts will be critical in outcome.”

“Akin, Brown, and Allen sounds more like a law firm than a Senate lineup these days.”

This article appears in the September 29, 2012 edition of National Journal Magazine.

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