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Magazine / POLITICAL INSIDERS POLL

Political Insiders Poll

September 27, 2012

On a scale of zero (no chance) to 10 (virtual certainty), how likely are the Republicans to take over the Senate in November?

DEMOCRATS (104 VOTES)

KEY:
Low (0-3)
Moderate (4-6)
High (7-10)

September 2012
Average: 3.1

59% (Low)
40% (Moderate)
1% (High)

 

February 2012
Average: 5.2

16% (Low)
62% (Moderate)
23% (High)

September 2011
Average: 5.6

11% (Low)
61% (Moderate)
30% (High)

May 2011
Average: 5.0

20% (Low)
59% (Moderate)
21% (High)

 

Slight chance (0-3)

“It’s not just the Todd Akin rape comments; it’s that Mitt Romney is a drag on Senate candidates in close races—see Scott Brown in Massachusetts and George Allen in Virginia, as well as Tommy Thompson in Wisconsin. Democrats may not win all three, but their chances are much better of late.”

“Slip, slip, slipping away.”

“There’s a path, but it’s gotten narrower by the day. Democratic candidates are trending up with presidential numbers in swing states and running superior races in non-battleground states.”

“The [National Republican Senatorial Committee] recruited done an extraordinary job of putting Republican seats (Arizona, Massachusetts, Nevada, and Indiana) in play.”

“Romney + Akin = 2 more years in the minority.”

“If Karl Rove abandons Romney and moves all of his money down-ballot, that will hurt in places like North Dakota. But then again, sinking ships are not that attractive to voters, so Romney’s troubles could really help our Senate candidates.”

Moderate chance (4-6)

“This should’ve been a slam dunk, but Dems have some surprisingly strong candidates, and Republicans are just fumbling race after race.”

“Romney’s stumbles hurt, but their big super PAC money may give their candidates enough distance to overcome him—and there is a long way to go.”

“The tea party pushed Olympia Snowe and Dick Lugar out of their races and Todd Akin into his. The GOP has only itself to blame in losing the chance they had to take the Senate.”

 

On a scale of zero (no chance) to 10 (virtual certainty), how likely are the Republicans to take over the Senate in November?

REPUBLICANS (91 VOTES)

KEY:
Low (0-3)
Moderate (4-6)
High (7-10)

September 2012
Average: 4.4

24% (Low)
71% (Moderate)
4% (High)

February 2012
Average: 6.9

1% (Low)
32% (Moderate)
66% (High)

September 2011
Average: 7.4

1% (Low)
22% (Moderate)
79% (High)

May 2011
Average: 6.7

2% (Low)
41% (Moderate)
57% (High)

 

Slight chance (0-3)

“Impossible not to think things are trending down.”

“The math simply does not work. The three M’s—Maine, Massachusetts, and Missouri—are unlikely. Hard to see how you get to 50, much less 51, without two of those three.”

Moderate chance (4-6)

“The Senate will follow the outcome at the top of the ticket.”

“Sleeper races for the GOP: Maine and Missouri.”

“Barring a total collapse at the top of the ticket, we can still get there. Question is, will we have to make the checks-and-balances argument to finish the job?”

“Still even money. Obama will be a drag in Montana and Wisconsin. [Chances in] Connecticut now very real for the GOP.”

“Should have run the table. Now they’re just running scared.”

“Close races in Nevada, Virginia, Wisconsin, and Massachusetts will be critical in outcome.”

“Akin, Brown, and Allen sounds more like a law firm than a Senate lineup these days.”

“What once looked like a great takeover chance now appears to be a fair chance.”

“The candidate field on the GOP side leaves much to be desired.”

“If Romney closes to a 2-point loss, that may be good enough to save Scott Brown. Then we need Akin, Allen, or WWE to provide the last seat.”

 

On a scale of 0 (no chance) to 10 (virtual certainty), how likely are the Democrats to take over the House in November?

DEMOCRATS (103 VOTES)

KEY:
Low (0-3)
Moderate (4-6)
High (7-10)

September 2012
Average: 3.5

51% (Low)
47% (Moderate)
3% (High)

February 2012
Average: 4.0

36% (Low)
56% (Moderate)
9% (High)

September 2011
Average: 3.8

47% (Low)
50% (Moderate)
5% (High)

May 2011
Average: 4.3

33% (Low)
53% (Moderate)
15% (High)

 

Slight chance (0-3)

“Need a better wave than seems to exist. Waters too choppy for a total victory.”

“Obama’s coattails aren’t long enough to cover the House.”

“The map is bad, but if Obama can continue to beat down Romney, they have a path.”

“A 15-seat gain is their best outcome.”

“If Obama builds on his current lead, the prospects for House Democrats get much brighter. But right now, it’s a stretch.”

“You [should] see signs of the big wave at this point, and so far there are none.”

Moderate chance (4-6)

“Still a long shot, but Democrats have seized on the Paul Ryan budget and his plans to privatize Medicare, creating strong messages in many contested districts.”

“It’s still an uphill battle, but every day that Mitt is Mitt, Democrats’ chances improve.”

“Generic ballot is trending more and more Democratic.”

“Has gone from remote to possible.”

“As Obama rises, John Boehner, Eric Cantor, and Kevin McCarthy are starting to sweat.”

“Still a long shot, but trends of presidential [race] put a lot back in play.”

“Even money is they do better than expected but still come up short.”

“When your approval rating is 11 percent, change is gonna come. However, the GOP cash advantage will act as a flood wall hampering the sea change and perhaps allowing them to hold on.”

 

On a scale of 0 (no chance) to 10 (virtual certainty), how likely are the Democrats to take over the House in November?

REPUBLICANS (92 VOTES)

KEY:
Low (0-3)
Moderate (4-6)
High (7-10)

September 2012
Average: 1.5

97% (Low)
3% (Moderate)
0% (High)

February 2012
Average: 2.1
89% (Low)
9% (Moderate)
1% (High)

September 2011
Average:
1.8
92% (Low)
9% (Moderate)
0% (High) 

May 2011
Average:
2.3
82% (Low)
21% (Moderate)
0% (High) 

 

Slight chance (0-3)

“The fat lady has finished singing and is eating cake.”

“A bridge too far.”

“There is historically no ‘sweep’ when a president is running for reelection. And at the moment, there is no wave forming for Democrats that will produce much change. If Romney wins, control of the House will be at risk in 2014.”

“Open seats and toss-ups will split evenly, leaving Republicans in charge.”

“Boehner and his team have done an excellent job to get us to where we will be just fine.”

“Democratic recruiting was very poor and the GOP dominated redistricting. Obama is slurping up needed cash and is a drag in many swing districts.”

“Would take an Obama landslide to shift House control.”

“They would need a tidal wave, and that’s not happening. Math simply doesn’t work for them.”

“Voters may not punish Obama for his sins, but they are not going to empower him with a Democratic House to wreak more havoc.”

“It would take a total rout for the Democrats to win back the House. At this point, that is highly unlikely.”

“The public thinks Obama is going to win. They’ve already said they won’t trust him with a congressional majority again.”

“Too big a margin to overcome, and Republican candidates for House overall [look] pretty good.”

Moderate chance (4-6)

“Much higher chance than ever in this cycle. Still a long shot.”

____________

Democratic Political Insiders Jill Alper, John Anzalone, Brad Bannon, Dave Beattie, Andy Bechhoefer, Cornell Belcher, Matt Bennett, Mitchell W. Berger, Mike Berman, Stephanie Bosh, Paul Brathwaite, Donna Brazile, Mark Brewer, Ed Bruley, George Bruno, Bonnie Campbell, Bill Carrick, Guy Cecil, Martin J. Chavez, Tony Coelho, Larry Cohen, Jerry Crawford, Brendan Daly, Jeff Danielson, Peter Daou, Howard Dean, Scott DeFife, Jim Demers, Tad Devine, David Di Martino, Debbie Dingell, Monica Dixon, Patrick Dorton, Pat Dujakovich, Anita Dunn, Jeff Eller, Steve Elmendorf, Carter Eskew, Vic Fazio, Peter Fenn, Scott Ferson, Jim Fleischmann, Tina Flournoy, Don Foley, Jeffrey Forbes, Vincent Frillici, Gina Glantz, Niles Godes, John Michael Gonzalez, Joe Grandmaison, Anna Greenberg, Stan Greenberg, Pat Griffin, Larry Grisolano, Michael Gronstal, Lisa Grove, Marcia Hale, Jill Hanauer, Dick Harpootlian, Paul Harstad, Laura Hartigan, Doug Hattaway, Mike Henry, Karen Hicks, Leo Hindery Jr., Harold Ickes, Marcus Jadotte, John Jameson, Steve Jarding, Jonathon Jones, Jim Jordan, Gale Kaufman, Lisa Kountoupes, Celinda Lake, David Lang, Penny Lee, Chris Lehane, Jeff Link, Bob Maloney, Jim Manley, Steve Marchand, Jim Margolis, Paul Maslin, Keith Mason, Susan McCue, Gerald McEntee, Steve McMahon, Tom McMahon, Phil McNamara, David Medina, Michael Meehan, Mark Mellman, John Merrigan, Michael Monroe, Steve Murphy, Janet Napolitano, David Nassar, Marcia Nichols, John Norris, Tom Ochs, Tom O’Donnell, Jeffrey Peck, Debora Pignatelli, Tony Podesta, Jefrey Pollock, Jack Quinn, Larry Rasky, Mame Reiley, Ed Rendell, Steve Ricchetti, Will Robinson, Steve Rosenthal, David Rudd, Ryan Rudominer, John Ryan, Michael Sargeant, Stephanie Schriock, Terry Shumaker, Sean Sinclair, Phil Singer, Erik Smith, Doug Sosnik, Greg Speed, Darry Sragow, Ken Strasma, Doug Thornell, Jeffrey Trammell, Ed Turlington, Rick Wiener, James Williams, JoDee Winterhof, Brian Wolff, Jon Youngdahl, and Jim Zogby.

GOP Political Insiders Dan Allen, Stan Anderson, Gary Andres, Saulius (Saul) Anuzis, Rich Ashooh, Whit Ayres, Brett Bader, Mitch Bainwol, Brian Baker, Gary Bauer, David Beckwith, Paul Bennecke, Clark Benson, Wayne Berman, Brian Bieron, Charlie Black, Kirk Blalock, Carmine Boal, Jeff Boeyink, Ron Bonjean, Jeff Buley, Luke Byars, Nick Calio, Al Cardenas, Danny Carroll, Alex Castellanos, Ron Christie, Jim Cicconi, Jonathan Collegio, Rob Collins, Cesar Conda, Jake Corman, Scott Cottington, Jay Cranford, Greg Crist, Diane Crookham-Johnson, Fergus Cullen, Tom Davis, Mike Dennehy, Ken Duberstein, Debi Durham, Sara Fagen, Frank Fahrenkopf, John Feehery, Don Fierce, Mindy Finn, Carl Forti, Alex Gage, Bruce A. Gates, Sam Geduldig, Adam Geller, Benjamin Ginsberg, David Girard-diCarlo, Bill Greener, Jonathan Grella, Lanny Griffith, Janet Mullins Grissom, Doug Gross, Todd Harris, Steve Hart, Christopher Healy, Ralph Hellmann, Chris Henick, Terry Holt, David Iannelli, Ed Ingle, Jim Innocenzi, Clark Judge, David Keating, David Kensinger, Bob Kjellander, Ed Kutler, Chris LaCivita, Jim Lake, Steven Law, Steve Lombardo, Kevin Madden, Joel Maiola, Gary Maloney, David Marin, Mary Matalin, Dan Mattoon, Brian McCormack, Mark McKinnon, Kyle McSlarrow, Ken Mehlman, Jim Merrill, Lisa Camooso Miller, Tim Morrison, Mike Murphy, Phil Musser, Ron Nehring, Terry Nelson, Neil Newhouse, David Norcross, Ziad Ojakli, Jack Oliver, Todd Olsen, Kevin O’Neill, Connie Partoyan, Billy Piper, Van B. Poole, Tom Rath, Scott Reed, David Rehr, Tom Reynolds, Steve Roberts, Jason Roe, David Roederer, Dan Schnur, Russ Schriefer, Rich Schwarm, Brent Seaborn, Rick Shelby, Andrew Shore, Kevin Shuvalov, Don Sipple, Ken Spain, Fred Steeper, Bob Stevenson, Terry Sullivan, David Tamasi, Eric Tanenblatt, Richard Temple, Heath Thompson, Jay Timmons, Warren Tompkins, Ted Van Der Meid, Dirk van Dongen, Jan van Lohuizen, Stewart Verdery, Dick Wadhams, John Weaver, Lezlee Westine, Dave Winston, Ginny Wolfe, Fred Wszolek, and Matthew Zablud.

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