“What once looked like a great takeover chance now appears to be a fair chance.”
“The candidate field on the GOP side leaves much to be desired.”
“If Romney closes to a 2-point loss, that may be good enough to save Scott Brown. Then we need Akin, Allen, or WWE to provide the last seat.”
On a scale of 0 (no chance) to 10 (virtual certainty), how likely are the Democrats to take over the House in November?
DEMOCRATS (103 VOTES)
KEY:
Low (0-3)
Moderate (4-6)
High (7-10)
September 2012
Average: 3.5
51% (Low)
47% (Moderate)
3% (High)
February 2012
Average: 4.0
36% (Low)
56% (Moderate)
9% (High)
September 2011
Average: 3.8
47% (Low)
50% (Moderate)
5% (High)
May 2011
Average: 4.3
33% (Low)
53% (Moderate)
15% (High)
Slight chance (0-3)
“Need a better wave than seems to exist. Waters too choppy for a total victory.”
“Obama’s coattails aren’t long enough to cover the House.”
“The map is bad, but if Obama can continue to beat down Romney, they have a path.”
“A 15-seat gain is their best outcome.”
“If Obama builds on his current lead, the prospects for House Democrats get much brighter. But right now, it’s a stretch.”
“You [should] see signs of the big wave at this point, and so far there are none.”
Moderate chance (4-6)
“Still a long shot, but Democrats have seized on the Paul Ryan budget and his plans to privatize Medicare, creating strong messages in many contested districts.”
“It’s still an uphill battle, but every day that Mitt is Mitt, Democrats’ chances improve.”
“Generic ballot is trending more and more Democratic.”
“Has gone from remote to possible.”
“As Obama rises, John Boehner, Eric Cantor, and Kevin McCarthy are starting to sweat.”
“Still a long shot, but trends of presidential [race] put a lot back in play.”
“Even money is they do better than expected but still come up short.”
“When your approval rating is 11 percent, change is gonna come. However, the GOP cash advantage will act as a flood wall hampering the sea change and perhaps allowing them to hold on.”
On a scale of 0 (no chance) to 10 (virtual certainty), how likely are the Democrats to take over the House in November?
REPUBLICANS (92 VOTES)
KEY:
Low (0-3)
Moderate (4-6)
High (7-10)
September 2012
Average: 1.5
97% (Low)
3% (Moderate)
0% (High)
February 2012
Average: 2.1
89% (Low)
9% (Moderate)
1% (High)
September 2011
Average: 1.8
92% (Low)
9% (Moderate)
0% (High)
May 2011
Average: 2.3
82% (Low)
21% (Moderate)
0% (High)
Slight chance (0-3)
“The fat lady has finished singing and is eating cake.”
“A bridge too far.”
“There is historically no ‘sweep’ when a president is running for reelection. And at the moment, there is no wave forming for Democrats that will produce much change. If Romney wins, control of the House will be at risk in 2014.”
“Open seats and toss-ups will split evenly, leaving Republicans in charge.”
“Boehner and his team have done an excellent job to get us to where we will be just fine.”
“Democratic recruiting was very poor and the GOP dominated redistricting. Obama is slurping up needed cash and is a drag in many swing districts.”
“Would take an Obama landslide to shift House control.”
“They would need a tidal wave, and that’s not happening. Math simply doesn’t work for them.”
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