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Magazine / POLITICAL INSIDERS POLL

Political Insiders Poll

September 20, 2012

On a scale of zero (no chance) to 10 (virtual certainty), how likely is it that President Obama will win reelection?

DEMOCRATS (103 VOTES)

Average (now): 7.7
Average (4/28): 7.1

Slight chance (1-3): 0%
Moderate chance (4-6): 15%
Strong chance (7-10) : 85%

 

 

Moderate Chance (4-6)

“This is still closer than people think, and money does work.”

“Although his campaign has been far superior, foreign-policy and economic challenges will get bigger.”

Strong Chance (7-10)

“Unemployment at 8 percent, unrest in the Middle East, economy growing very slowly, yet he’s still beating Romney, who may be the most uninspiring candidate to ever run for the presidency.”

“Numbers in swing states are all trending in the right direction—I would put it at 8, but there is still too much time and anything can happen.”

“Right now, it increasingly looks like a dissatisfied electorate, given a dissatisfying choice, will see a dissatisfying outcome: the reelection of the lesser of two evils.”

“Absent something overseas or some horrific domestic attack, it’s time to get the fork. Romney is done.”

“Thank goodness for Obama’s secret weapon as revealed on SNL: Mitt Romney.”

“Romney has given away two of the last eight weeks of this campaign with his Libya comments and now the ‘47 percent’ video. Coming on the heels of a poor convention, the wheels are coming off.”

“The reason Romney can’t change voters’ perception of him is because their perception is accurate.”

“Only chance left for Romney is to trip up Obama in the first debate. Good luck.”

“It’s tough to win when your strategy is shooting yourself in the face every day, which is about the only thing the Romney campaign can do consistently.”

“The governor could have won but doesn’t even connect to the Republican-leaning upper-middle class in Ohio. I haven’t seen something like this since Dukakis ran for president.”

“The cooler candidate always wins the presidency. Obama is cooler.”

 

 

On a scale of zero (no chance) to 10 (virtual certainty), how likely is it that President Obama will win reelection?

REPUBLICANS (102 VOTES)

Average (now): 5.8
Average (4/28): 5.0

Slight chance (1-3): 2%
Moderate chance (4-6): 71%
Strong chance (7-10) : 27%

 

Moderate chance (4-6)

“It is very hard to beat an incumbent president, even one who doesn’t deserve reelection.”

“The president has held the upper hand in spite of the environment throughout the race. To date, we have done nothing to change that fact.”

“Romney still not closing the sale. Boston is not using one-third of the arguments and research available to blitz the Dems. But Obama still below 50 percent, and economy still sucks.”

“Don’t believe the hype. Obama is off Bush’s 2004 margin at this point in race by 3 points.”

“Romney remains competitive virtually everywhere he needs to win, despite weeks of feckless campaigning. This means that voters are cringing at the idea of four more years of Obama.”

“If Romney would supply some detailed plans, he could still win. Obama is highly vulnerable. But we’re six weeks out, and the alternative vision isn’t yet there.”

“His standing is improving in public polls, he received a bump out of the convention; but the debates will be a turning point, and Romney has a lot of money and still has a good chance to pull it out.”

“Despite the media story line that Mitt is Tom Dewey redux, voters will check their wallets and only moths will emerge. Obama can’t talk his way to victory.”

Strong chance (7-10)

“The only things that will beat him is: a) He misfires during the debates, or b) Some externality, another blowup in the Middle East or in the Pacific.”

“Romney appears to be on worse track than the economy.”

“Time is running out for Mitt Romney. He either over-performs in the debates or kisses this one good-bye.”

 

 

Which candidate has the more effective campaign team?

DEMOCRATS (103 VOTES)

Barack Obama: 96%
Mitt Romney: 4%

 

Obama

“The almost complete absence of specificity by Romney is stunning.”

“Any doubt about that question was settled during the two conventions. Chicago 2.0 is still a pretty darn good operation.”

“Obama’s team has the easier job—they are the default candidate, and it is almost always difficult to defeat an incumbent. All that said, I can’t tell if they are better than the Romney team, or if Romney just isn’t capable of being a good candidate. I think it is both.”

“The fish rots from the head; hence Romney’s team is hapless.”

“Obama has dominated the airwaves in key battleground states, while Romney is flailing at times. In addition, Obama’s field operation will yield dividends during get-out-the-vote.”

“Effective campaign teams don’t vent to the press.”

“Obama ground game unmatched. Romney election strategy, with fading message, has been reduced to voter suppression.”

“Tough one—neither is lighting up the scoreboard, but home team gets the nod.”

“Obama Staff = Apple+Google. Romney Staff = Microsoft+Yahoo!”

“Team Romney is becoming a circular firing squad. If he blows the first debate, the congressional wing will pull the money out, and that’s it for Romney.”

“It would appear Obama, although it is unfair to blame many of Romney’s ‘open mouth, change feet’ performances on his team.
And Romney picked the radioactive Ryan; his team didn’t.”

“Team Romney is the Boston Red Sox of politics. Looks great on paper, keeps making mistakes on the field, and the leader keeps saying stupid things.”

“Haven’t heard anyone calling to fire [campaign manager Jim] Messina.”

Romney

“To get this close with that level of lies takes some doing.”

“Mitt has the best team. Unfortunately, they have the worst candidate.”

 

 

Which candidate has the more effective campaign team?

REPUBLICANS (98 VOTES)

Barack Obama: 80%
Mitt Romney: 20%

 

Obama

“Unemployment above 8 percent and the debt over $16 trillion, and we are still losing? Enough said.”

“Pistons are all firing in sync in Chicago.”

“The Obama team is not as effective as they think, but Romney’s is not as effective as the American electorate deserves.”

“Messina, Axelrod, and the rest are pirates who leave no survivors and I’d take across the high seas any day.”

“Duh.”

“When a campaign should be losing but isn’t, then you have to say the team is effective.”

“By far. Too bad his economic team wasn’t as good.”

“Romney’s campaign has done a great job doing the blocking and tackling, but the problem has been on the strategic end. They failed to understand that running a referendum campaign still means you have to define yourself in order to be a viable alternative.”

“It would be hard for any competitive presidential campaign to be less effective than that of Mitt Romney.”

“Romney’s team may be liable for malpractice.”

“Campaigns matter. If they didn’t, anybody with this record would be cooked.”

“Practice makes perfect.”

Romney

“They defeated a multicandidate field in a grueling nomination fight. They are going to raise close to $1 billion, and they are neck and neck against a popular incumbent with the [mainstream media] in his pocket.”

“How effective would Obama’s team be if 90 percent of our media outlets were in the tank for Romney instead of their guy?”

“They’re hungrier.”

“The Chicago crybabies have spent $100 million more than the Beantown boys and they can’t top 50 percent. Pucker time!”

______________

Democratic Political Insiders Jill Alper, John Anzalone, Brad Bannon, Dave Beattie, Andy Bechhoefer, Cornell Belcher, Matt Bennett, Mitchell W. Berger, Mike Berman, Stephanie Bosh, Paul Brathwaite, Donna Brazile, Mark Brewer, Ed Bruley, George Bruno, Bonnie Campbell, Bill Carrick, Guy Cecil, Martin J. Chavez, Tony Coelho, Larry Cohen, Jerry Crawford, Brendan Daly, Jeff Danielson, Peter Daou, Howard Dean, Scott DeFife, Jim Demers, Tad Devine, David Di Martino, Debbie Dingell, Monica Dixon, Patrick Dorton, Pat Dujakovich, Anita Dunn, Jeff Eller, Steve Elmendorf, Carter Eskew, Vic Fazio, Peter Fenn, Scott Ferson, Jim Fleischmann, Tina Flournoy, Don Foley, Jeffrey Forbes, Vincent Frillici, Gina Glantz, Niles Godes, John Michael Gonzalez, Joe Grandmaison, Anna Greenberg, Stan Greenberg, Pat Griffin, Larry Grisolano, Michael Gronstal, Lisa Grove, Marcia Hale, Jill Hanauer, Dick Harpootlian, Paul Harstad, Laura Hartigan, Doug Hattaway, Mike Henry, Karen Hicks, Leo Hindery Jr., Harold Ickes, Marcus Jadotte, John Jameson, Steve Jarding, Jonathon Jones, Jim Jordan, Gale Kaufman, Lisa Kountoupes, Celinda Lake, David Lang, Penny Lee, Chris Lehane, Jeff Link, Bob Maloney, Jim Manley, Steve Marchand, Jim Margolis, Paul Maslin, Keith Mason, Susan McCue, Gerald McEntee, Steve McMahon, Tom McMahon, Phil McNamara, David Medina, Michael Meehan, Mark Mellman, John Merrigan, Michael Monroe, Steve Murphy, Janet Napolitano, David Nassar, Marcia Nichols, John Norris, Tom Ochs, Tom O’Donnell, Jeffrey Peck, Debora Pignatelli, Tony Podesta, Jefrey Pollock, Jack Quinn, Larry Rasky, Mame Reiley, Ed Rendell, Steve Ricchetti, Will Robinson, Steve Rosenthal, David Rudd, Ryan Rudominer, John Ryan, Michael Sargeant, Stephanie Schriock, Terry Shumaker, Sean Sinclair, Phil Singer, Erik Smith, Doug Sosnik, Greg Speed, Darry Sragow, Ken Strasma, Doug Thornell, Jeffrey Trammell, Ed Turlington, Rick Wiener, James Williams, JoDee Winterhof, Brian Wolff, Jon Youngdahl, and Jim Zogby.

GOP Political Insiders Dan Allen, Stan Anderson, Gary Andres, Saulius (Saul) Anuzis, Rich Ashooh, Whit Ayres, Brett Bader, Mitch Bainwol, Brian Baker, Gary Bauer, David Beckwith, Paul Bennecke, Clark Benson, Wayne Berman, Brian Bieron, Charlie Black, Kirk Blalock, Carmine Boal, Jeff Boeyink, Ron Bonjean, Jeff Buley, Luke Byars, Nick Calio, Al Cardenas, Danny Carroll, Alex Castellanos, Ron Christie, Jim Cicconi, Jonathan Collegio, Rob Collins, Cesar Conda, Jake Corman, Scott Cottington, Jay Cranford, Greg Crist, Diane Crookham-Johnson, Fergus Cullen, Tom Davis, Mike Dennehy, Ken Duberstein, Debi Durham, Sara Fagen, Frank Fahrenkopf, John Feehery, Don Fierce, Mindy Finn, Carl Forti, Alex Gage, Bruce A. Gates, Sam Geduldig, Adam Geller, Benjamin Ginsberg, David Girard-diCarlo, Bill Greener, Jonathan Grella, Lanny Griffith, Janet Mullins Grissom, Doug Gross, Todd Harris, Steve Hart, Christopher Healy, Ralph Hellmann, Chris Henick, Terry Holt, David Iannelli, Ed Ingle, Jim Innocenzi, Clark Judge, David Keating, David Kensinger, Bob Kjellander, Ed Kutler, Chris LaCivita, Jim Lake, Steven Law, Steve Lombardo, Kevin Madden, Joel Maiola, Gary Maloney, David Marin, Mary Matalin, Dan Mattoon, Brian McCormack, Mark McKinnon, Kyle McSlarrow, Ken Mehlman, Jim Merrill, Lisa Camooso Miller, Tim Morrison, Mike Murphy, Phil Musser, Ron Nehring, Terry Nelson, Neil Newhouse, David Norcross, Ziad Ojakli, Jack Oliver, Todd Olsen, Kevin O’Neill, Connie Partoyan, Billy Piper, Van B. Poole, Tom Rath, Scott Reed, David Rehr, Tom Reynolds, Steve Roberts, Jason Roe, David Roederer, Dan Schnur, Russ Schriefer, Rich Schwarm, Brent Seaborn, Rick Shelby, Andrew Shore, Kevin Shuvalov, Don Sipple, Ken Spain, Fred Steeper, Bob Stevenson, Terry Sullivan, David Tamasi, Eric Tanenblatt, Richard Temple, Heath Thompson, Jay Timmons, Warren Tompkins, Ted Van Der Meid, Dirk van Dongen, Jan van Lohuizen, Stewart Verdery, Dick Wadhams, John Weaver, Lezlee Westine, Dave Winston, Ginny Wolfe, Fred Wszolek, and Matthew Zablud.

 

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