Here’s how our Democratic and Republican Political Insiders fared in their Election Day predictions. The top Republican Insider was consultant Chris LaCivita. The top Democrats were lobbyist Tom O’Donnell and pollster Mark Mellman.
1) Which party will win the House?
Outcome Republican Democratic Chris Tom Mark
Insiders Insiders LaCivita(R) O'Donnell(D) Mellman(D)
Rep. Rep. Rep. Rep. Rep. Rep.
2) How many House seats will Republicans gain?
Outcome Republican Democratic Chris Tom Mark
Insiders Insiders LaCivita(R) O'Donnell(D) Mellman(D)
60* 53 47 51 57 46
3) Which party will win the Senate?
Outcome Republican Democratic Chris Tom Mark
Insiders Insiders LaCivita(R) O'Donnell(D) Mellman(D)
Dem. Dem. Dem. Dem. Dem. Dem.
4) How many Senate seats will Republicans gain?
Outcome Republican Democratic Chris Tom Mark
Insiders Insiders LaCivita(R) O'Donnell(D) Mellman(D)
6* 8 7 7 7 6
5) Who will win these Senate races?
ILLINOIS
Outcome Republican Democratic Chris Tom Mark
Insiders Insiders LaCivita(R) O'Donnell(D) Mellman(D)
Kirk Kirk Giannoulias Kirk Kirk Kirk
KENTUCKY
Outcome Republican Democratic Chris Tom Mark
Insiders Insiders LaCivita(R) O'Donnell(D) Mellman(D)
Paul Paul Paul Paul Paul Paul
NEVADA
Outcome Republican Democratic Chris Tom Mark
Insiders Insiders LaCivita(R) O'Donnell(D) Mellman(D)
Reid Angle Reid Reid Reid Reid
PENNSYLVANIA
Outcome Republican Democratic Chris Tom Mark
Insiders Insiders LaCivita(R) O'Donnell(D) Mellman(D)
Toomey Toomey Sestak Toomey Toomey Toomey
6) Who will win these House races?
IA-03
Outcome Republican Democratic Chris Tom Mark
Insiders Insiders LaCivita(R) O'Donnell(D) Mellman(D)
Boswell Zaun Boswell Boswell Boswell Boswell
NH-02
Outcome Republican Democratic Chris Tom Mark
Insiders Insiders LaCivita(R) O'Donnell(D) Mellman(D)
Bass Bass Bass Bass Bass Kuster
SC-05
Outcome Republican Democratic Chris Tom Mark
Insiders Insiders LaCivita(R) O'Donnell(D) Mellman(D)
Mulvaney Mulvaney Mulvaney Mulvaney Mulvaney Mulvaney
SD-AL
Outcome Republican Democratic Chris Tom Mark
Insiders Insiders LaCivita(R) O'Donnell(D) Mellman(D)
Noem Noem Noem Noem Noem Noem
7) Who will win these gubernatorial races?
CALIFORNIA
Outcome Republican Democratic Chris Tom Mark
Insiders Insiders LaCivita(R) O'Donnell(D) Mellman(D)
Brown Brown Brown Brown Brown Brown
FLORIDA
Outcome Republican Democratic Chris Tom Mark
Insiders Insiders LaCivita(R) O'Donnell(D) Mellman(D)
Scott Scott Scott Scott Scott Scott
OHIO
Outcome Republican Democratic Chris Tom Mark
Insiders Insiders LaCivita(R) O'Donnell(D) Mellman(D)
Kasich Kasich Kasich Kasich Kasich Kasich
8) Will California Proposition 19 legalizing marijuana pass?
Outcome Republican Democratic Chris Tom Mark
Insiders Insiders LaCivita(R) O'Donnell(D) Mellman(D)
No No No No No No
9) Christine O’Donnell’s percentage of the vote in Delaware?
Outcome Republican Democratic Chris Tom Mark
Insiders Insiders LaCivita(R) O'Donnell(D) Mellman(D)
40 41 40 37 41 39
*As of 11/4.
Democratic Political Insiders Jill Alper, John Anzalone, Brad Bannon, Dave Beattie, Andy Bechhoefer, Cornell Belcher, Matt Bennett, Mitchell W. Berger, Mike Berman, Stephanie Bosh, Paul Brathwaite, Donna Brazile, Mark Brewer, Ed Bruley, George Bruno, Deb Callahan, Bonnie Campbell, Bill Carrick, Guy Cecil, Martin J. Chavez, Tony Coelho, Larry Cohen, Jerry Crawford, Stephanie Cutter, Jeff Danielson, Peter Daou, Howard Dean, Jim Demers, Tad Devine, David Di Martino, Debbie Dingell, Monica Dixon, Patrick Dorton, Pat Dujakovich, Anita Dunn, Jeff Eller, Steve Elmendorf, Carter Eskew, Eric Eve, Vic Fazio, Peter Fenn, Scott Ferson, Jim Fleischmann, Tina Flournoy, Don Foley, Don Fowler, Vincent Frillici, Gina Glantz, Niles Godes, John Michael Gonzalez, Joe Grandmaison, Anna Greenberg, Stan Greenberg, Pat Griffin, Larry Grisolano, Michael Gronstal, Lisa Grove, Marcia Hale, Jill Hanauer, Dick Harpootlian, Paul Harstad, Laura Hartigan, Doug Hattaway, Mike Henry, Karen Hicks, Leo Hindery Jr., Harold Ickes, Marcus Jadotte, John Jameson, Steve Jarding, Jonathon Jones, Jim Jordan, Gale Kaufman, Lisa Kountoupes, Kam Kuwata, Celinda Lake, David Lang, Penny Lee, Chris Lehane, Jeff Link, Bill Lynch, Bob Maloney, Steve Marchand, Jim Margolis, Paul Maslin, Keith Mason, Terry McAuliffe, Susan McCue, Gerald McEntee, Tom McMahon, Phil McNamara, David Medina, Michael Meehan, Mark Mellman, John Merrigan, Steve Murphy, Janet Napolitano, David Nassar, Marcia Nichols, John Norris, Tom Ochs, Tom O’Donnell, Scott Parven, Jeffrey Peck, Debora Pignatelli, Tony Podesta, Jack Quinn, Larry Rasky, Bruce Reed, Mame Reiley, Steve Ricchetti, Will Robinson, Steve Rosenthal, David Rudd, John Ryan, Michael Sargeant, Stephanie Schriock, Wendy Sherman, Terry Shumaker, Sean Sinclair, Phil Singer, Erik Smith, Doug Sosnik, Greg Speed, Darry Sragow, Ken Strasma, Katrina Swett Sarah, Swisher, Jeffrey Trammell, Ed Turlington, Rick Wiener, Bridgette Williams, James Williams, JoDee Winterhof, Brian Wolff, Jon Youngdahl, and Jim Zogby.
GOP Political Insiders Dan Allen, Stan Anderson, Gary Andres, Saulius (Saul) Anuzis, Rich Ashooh, Whit Ayres, Brett Bader, Mitch Bainwol, Gary Bauer, David Beckwith, Clark Benson, Wayne Berman, Brian Bieron, Charlie Black, Kirk Blalock, Carmine Boal, Jeff Boeyink, Ron Bonjean, Jeff Buley, Luke Byars, Nick Calio, Al Cardenas, Danny Carroll, Ron Christie, Jim Cicconi, Rob Collins, Cesar Conda, Jake Corman, Scott Cottington, Greg Crist, Diane Crookham-Johnson, Fergus Cullen, Tom Davis, Mike Dennehy, Ken Duberstein, Steve Duprey, Debi Durham, Sara Fagen, Frank Fahrenkopf, John Feehery, Don Fierce, Mindy Finn, Mindy Fletcher, Carl Forti, Alex Gage, Sam Geduldig, Adam Geller, Benjamin Ginsberg, David Girard-diCarlo, Bill Greener, Jonathan Grella, Lanny Griffith, Janet Mullins Grissom, Doug Gross, Todd Harris, Steve Hart, Christopher Healy, Ralph Hellmann, Chris Henick, Terry Holt, David Iannelli, Barry Jackson, Clark Judge, David Keating, David Kensinger, Bruce Keough, Bob Kjellander, Ed Kutler, Chris LaCivita, Jim Lake, Steve Lombardo, Kevin Madden, Joel Maiola, Gary Maloney, David Marin, Mary Matalin, Dan Mattoon, Brian McCormack, Mark McKinnon, Kyle McSlarrow, Ken Mehlman, Jim Merrill, Lisa Camooso Miller, Tim Morrison, Mike Murphy, Phil Musser, Ron Nehring, Terry Nelson, Neil Newhouse, David Norcross, Ziad Ojakli, Jack Oliver, Todd Olsen, Connie Partoyan, Dana Perino, Van B. Poole, Tom Rath, Scott Reed, David Rehr, Tom Reynolds, Steve Roberts, Jason Roe, David Roederer, Dan Schnur, Russ Schriefer, Rich Schwarm, Brent Seaborn, Rick Shelby, Andrew Shore, Kevin Shuvalov, Don Sipple, Fred Steeper, Bob Stevenson, Eric Tanenblatt, Richard Temple, Heath Thompson, Jay Timmons, Warren Tompkins, Ted Van Der Meid, Dirk van Dongen, Jan van Lohuizen, Stewart Verdery, Dick Wadhams, John Weaver, Lezlee Westine, Tom Wilson, Dave Winston, Ginny Wolfe, and Fred Wszolek.
This article appears in the Nov. 6, 2010, edition of National Journal.
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