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CONGRESSIONAL INSIDERS POLL

Congressional Insiders Poll

After last week’s disappointing jobs report, is President Obama an underdog against Mitt Romney this fall?

Democrats (23 votes)

Yes: 13%
No: 83%
Other: 4%

 

Yes

“The economy is terrible; he has been a huge bust as a communicator as president; he never thanked his base with the policies he promised them. Romney would be a catastrophe—where there’s life, there’s hope?”

No

 

“Get real. It’s a .1 percent drop.”

“One report in June does not make an election. But it doesn’t help, and future reports must be better.”

“But it’s a tough race, and it has been all along. Republicans have more money and no scruples. They will do anything—anything—to win.”

“One jobs report, and one in which jobs were created, doesn’t make or break this race. It will be a tough race for sure, but most voters don’t have the short-term memories that Republicans have. Republicans want to forget that we were losing 750,000 jobs a month when Obama took office, and that Romney supported a stimulus to turn the economy around.”

 

“It is a one-month number. We have to see.”

“There’s no question the state of the economy continues to weigh down President Obama’s reelection efforts, but Mitt Romney has failed to define his candidacy other than he’s not Obama. The ‘I’m not the other guy’ strategy didn’t work for Sen. [John] Kerry and only worked for President Bush with the help of the Supreme Court.”

“Obama’s path to 270 continues to be wider than Romney’s.”

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After last week’s disappointing jobs report, is President Obama an underdog against Mitt Romney this fall?

Republicans (22 votes)

Yes: 27%
No: 73%

Yes

“The biggest threat to President Obama’s reelection are his economic policies, which continue to fail the American people.”

“Gonna be a nail-biter.”

No

“This race is evenly matched. Obama has the money, but he will suffer from his economic policies; that’s a push.”

“Obama remains the favorite, but he is losing rather than gaining ground. Another month like this and the race will be a toss-up.”

“No incumbent president is an underdog.”

“With this economy, his likability is the only reason he remains the favorite.”

“The sitting president is still hard to beat.”

“No, but it’s not because he’s not trying.”

 

Of the major bills left to consider this year, which of the following do you think is most likely to pass: postal reform; student loans; the farm bill; the transportation bill; or the Violence Against Women Act?

Democrats (23 votes)

Postal reform: 9%
Student loans: 30%
Farm bill: 30%
Transportation bill: 4%
Violence Against Women Act: 13%
Other: 13%

Postal reform

“I think the postal reform is most likely to pass, followed closely by the transportation bill.”

Student loans

“It’s suicidal for the GOP to let interest rates double on July 1.”

Farm bill

“Enough tea partiers represent rural districts, they will set aside their strident philosophies to become exactly what they claim to hate—self-serving politicians.”

“(But it should be transportation.)”

“But it’s a long shot.”

“Farm bill, but the transportation bill would have more positive economic impact.”

Violence Against Women Act

“Republicans don’t want to explain why they are bad on women’s issues.”

Other

“Strange, no jobs bills on this list …”

“It is important to get all of these done but they are all low priorities for Republicans. Even the transportation bill—which would create millions of American jobs—doesn’t seem to be a priority for them. It is crazy for them to deny Americans these private-sector jobs.”

“Farm bill and postal reform, since there are corporate advocates. Transportation just before the election to avoid ‘the blame’ while still hurting the economy through delay. Students? Women? Not the Republican base.”

 

Of the major bills left to consider this year, which of the following do you think is most likely to pass: postal reform; student loans; the farm bill; the transportation bill; or the Violence Against Women Act?

This article appears in the June 9, 2012 edition of National Journal Magazine.

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