Major
“For a few weeks, then catastrophic.”
“We will have immediate reactions like the response to first TARP-vote failure, followed by long-term increased costs and decreased economic activity.”
“But [then] catastrophic if the ‘major’ economic consequences don’t scare members into moving quickly to fix the problem.”
Minor
“Wall Street wants to sell more bonds and earn the fees: They won’t let the publicity jeopardize their self-dealing interests.”
If Congress fails to raise the debt ceiling by early August, what do you think will be the economic consequences?
Republicans (34 votes)
Catastrophic: 15%
Major: 44%
Minor: 29%
No impact: 0%
Other (volunteered): 12%
Catastrophic
“It will be somewhere in between the [Michele] Bachmann prophecy on the right and the Obama scare tactics from the left.”
“If it wasn’t this serious, we would have had a deal by now. The U.S. triple-A credit rating is the world’s gold standard—no one can afford to treat this lightly.”
Major
“The ceiling will have to be raised, hopefully without spending cuts and no tax hikes.”
“Although there are so many variables that it is impossible to predict. But it’s sure to be very bad.”
“I say this because Wall Street and the markets tend to overreact to everything. I think the market takes a huge one-day nosedive, just like [after] the first TARP vote that failed.”
“It will be bad, but raising taxes and killing jobs or ignoring our spending problem would be bad, too.”
“There will definitely be an impact for the market nationally and internationally.”
Minor
“If the deal is inked but not passed yet, the market barely ripples. If the White House and GOP are still 100 miles apart, it could be major.”
Other
“We cannot continue to kick the can down the road.”
“Confident we’ll reach an agreement.”
“In Washington and on Wall Street, the consequences will be catastrophic. On Main Street USA, the consequences will be minor.”
_________________________
Democratic Congressional Insiders Sens. Sherrod Brown, Ben Cardin, Thomas Carper, Christopher A. Coons, Frank Lautenberg, Barbara Mikulski, Mark Pryor, Jon Tester, Tom Udall, Mark Warner; Reps. Jason Altmire, Robert Andrews, Tammy Baldwin, Karen Bass, Xavier Becerra, Howard Berman, Lois Capps, Michael Capuano, Dennis Cardoza, James Clyburn, Gerry Connolly , Jim Cooper, Joseph Crowley, Elijah Cummings, Diana DeGette, Rosa DeLauro, Eliot Engel, Anna Eshoo, Sam Farr, Chaka Fattah, Bob Filner, Alcee Hastings, Rush Holt, Mike Honda, Steve Israel, Marcy Kaptur, Jim Langevin, John Lewis, Zoe Lofgren, Nita Lowey, Carolyn Maloney, Ed Markey, Jim McDermott, Jim McGovern, Jim Moran, Gary Peters, Collin Peterson, David Price, Silvestre Reyes, Linda Sanchez, Jan Schakowsky, Allyson Schwartz, Jose Serrano, Adam Smith, Pete Stark, Bennie Thompson, Debbie Wasserman Schultz, Henry Waxman, Peter Welch, and Frederica Wilson.
GOP Congressional Insiders Sens. Lamar Alexander, John Cornyn, Jim DeMint, Lindsey Graham, Kay Bailey Hutchison, Johnny Isakson, Richard Lugar, Jeff Sessions, Olympia Snowe, John Thune, David Vitter; Reps. Michele Bachmann, Brian Bilbray, Marsha Blackburn, John Boehner, Charles Boustany, Kevin Brady, John Campbell, Eric Cantor, John Carter, Tom Cole, Mike Conaway, Jeff Denham, Charlie Dent, David Dreier, Sean Duffy, Jo Ann Emerson, Jeff Flake, Scott Garrett, Bob Goodlatte, Trey Gowdy, Kay Granger, Doc Hastings, Nan Hayworth, Darrell Issa, Mike Kelly, Peter King, Jack Kingston, Adam Kinzinger, John Kline, Dan Lungren, Kenny Marchant, Kevin McCarthy, Patrick McHenry, John Mica, Candice Miller, Sue Myrick, Devin Nunes, Mike Pence, Tom Price, Dave Reichert, Mike Rogers of Michigan, Phil Roe, Paul Ryan, Aaron Schock, Pete Sessions, Adrian Smith, Steve Stivers, Lee Terry, Pat Tiberi, Fred Upton, Daniel Webster, and Joe Wilson.
This article appears in the July 16, 2011, edition of National Journal.
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