Poll: How Will the Decision to Delay Keystone XL Affect Your Party’s Prospects in November?

None

Participants in the protests carry a giant faux pipeline across from the North Lawn of the White House on Sunday Nov. 6, 2011.
National Journal
Michael Catalini Sarah Mimms and Peter Bell
May 1, 2014, 5 p.m.

Does the de­cision to delay the Key­stone XL pipeline help, hurt, or have no ef­fect on your party’s pro­spects in Novem­ber?

DEMO­CRATS (89 VOTES)

Help: 24%
Hurt: 23%
No ef­fect: 53%

Help

“Helps be­cause if he ap­proved it now, could hurt turnout among the base. Those Dems who sup­port it can bang the pres­id­ent; those op­posed can lobby the ad­min­is­tra­tion to block it.”

“Good for the base.”

“Tap dan­cing in place would seem to be the or­der of the day, with post-midterm ap­prov­al ex­pec­ted.”

“Red-state Dems can claim vic­tory on the delay, and the en­viros can still or­gan­ize around the threat.”

Hurt

“While it mol­li­fies the en­vir­on­ment­al base, it adds to the nar­rat­ive of Demo­crat­ic feck­less­ness, here and abroad.”

“We need to pass it. We are mak­ing great pro­gress on clean, af­ford­able en­ergy. Keep it go­ing.”

“The Demo­crat­ic base is not af­fected, no mat­ter what Tom Stey­er wants, but in­de­pend­ents are fur­ther com­prom­ised.”

“The voters just see this as jobs, jobs, jobs; and we’re stand­ing in the way. I wish the spot­ted owls voted in midterms.”

No ef­fect

“Nobody out­side of the coastal elites and some folks in the states where it would go really care.”

“It cuts both ways. It gives ad­voc­ates a cudgel with which to ham­mer the pres­id­ent and prove their dis­tance, and it keeps op­pon­ents fully en­gaged through the elec­tions.”

No de­cision means no im­pact.”

Does the de­cision to delay the Key­stone XL pipeline help, hurt, or have no ef­fect on your party’s pro­spects in Novem­ber?

RE­PUB­LIC­ANS (98 Votes)

Help: 75%
Hurt: 12%
No ef­fect: 13%

Help

“It fur­ther de­mor­al­izes part of the Demo­crat­ic base — labor uni­ons and oth­ers in­ter­ested in eco­nom­ic growth.”

“Shows that he fa­vors en­vir­on­ment­al­ists over jobs. Will par­tic­u­larly hurt Landrieu, Be­gich, Pry­or, Walsh, and Hagan.”

” ‘Drill, baby, drill’ is an easy slo­gan for GOP vo­lun­teers to re­mem­ber, and it works.”

“Obama has pivoted to everything but cre­at­ing jobs dur­ing his ten­ure.”

“In many key states, it’s one more data point about how this ad­min­is­tra­tion doesn’t get it when it comes to job cre­ation and eco­nom­ic growth.”

“Dem can­did­ates will say they op­pose the ad­min­is­tra­tion, but they can­not hide from it.”

“The ad­min­is­tra­tion looks both polit­ic­al and weak with the de­cision to delay Key­stone.”

“A dither­ing ad­min­is­tra­tion is a be­ne­fit for our side.”

“Key­stone will be an is­sue in some key races, but his lack of lead­er­ship will be a theme around the coun­try.”

“It cre­ates a very pos­it­ive policy con­trast for Re­pub­lic­ans that en­com­passes the huge is­sue of jobs/eco­nomy.”

“It blunts the anti-Koch rhet­or­ic of the left by pan­der­ing to Stey­er.”

Hurt

“When you can use the uni­ons against the pres­id­ent, it’s nev­er a good day for the home team.”

No ef­fect

“Dumb policy-wise, but real voters aren’t mak­ing de­cisions based on Key­stone.”

“Most people don’t care about Key­stone.”

… … … … …

Demo­crat­ic Polit­ic­al In­siders Jill Alp­er, John An­za­lone, Brad Ban­non, Dave Beat­tie, Andy Bech­hoe­fer, Cor­nell Belch­er, Matt Ben­nett, Mitchell W. Ber­ger, Mike Ber­man, Stephanie Bosh, Paul Brath­waite, Donna Brazile, Mark Brew­er, Ed Bruley, George Bruno, Bon­nie Camp­bell, Bill Car­rick, Guy Cecil, Mar­tin J. Chavez, Tony Coelho, Larry Co­hen, Jerry Craw­ford, Brendan Daly, Jeff Daniel­son, Peter Daou, Howard Dean, Scott De­Fife, Jim De­mers, Tad Dev­ine, Dav­id Di Mar­tino, Debbie Din­gell, Mon­ica Dix­on, Patrick Dor­ton, Pat Du­jakovich, An­ita Dunn, Jeff Eller, Steve El­men­d­orf, Carter Eskew, Vic Fazio, Peter Fenn, Scott Fer­son, Jim Fleischmann, Tina Flournoy, Don Fo­ley, Jef­frey For­bes, Vin­cent Fril­lici, Gina Glantz, Niles Godes, John Mi­chael Gonza­lez, Joe Grand­mais­on, Anna Green­berg, Stan Green­berg, Pat Griffin, Larry Griso­lano, Mi­chael Gron­stal, Lisa Grove, Mar­cia Hale, Jill Hanauer, Dick Har­poot­li­an, Paul Harstad, Laura Hartigan, Doug Hat­t­away, Mike Henry, Kar­en Hicks, Leo Hindery Jr., Har­old Ickes, Mar­cus Jadotte, John Jameson, Steve Jard­ing, Jona­thon Jones, Jim Jordan, Gale Kauf­man, Lisa Koun­toupes, Celinda Lake, Dav­id Lang, Penny Lee, Chris Le­hane, Jeff Link, Bob Malo­ney, Jim Man­ley, Steve Marchand, Jim Mar­gol­is, Paul Maslin, Keith Ma­son, Susan Mc­Cue, Ger­ald McEntee, Steve McMa­hon, Tom McMa­hon, Phil Mc­Namara, Dav­id Med­ina, Mi­chael Mee­han, Mark Mell­man, John Mer­rigan, Mi­chael Mon­roe, Steve Murphy, Janet Na­pol­it­ano, Dav­id Nas­sar, Mar­cia Nich­ols, John Nor­ris, Tom Ochs, Tom O’Don­nell, Jef­frey Peck, De­bora Pig­na­telli, Tony Podesta, Je­frey Pol­lock, Jack Quinn, Larry Rasky, Mame Re­iley, Ed Rendell, Steve Ric­chetti, Will Robin­son, Steve Rosenth­al, Dav­id Rudd, Ry­an Rudom­in­er, John Ry­an, Mi­chael Sar­geant, Stephanie Schriock, Terry Shu­maker, Sean Sin­clair, Phil Sing­er, Erik Smith, Doug Sosnik, Greg Speed, Darry Sragow, Ken Strasma, Doug Thor­nell, Jef­frey Tram­mell, Ed Tur­l­ing­ton, Rick Wien­er, James Wil­li­ams, JoDee Win­ter­hof, Bri­an Wolff, Jon Young­dahl, and Jim Zo­gby.

GOP Polit­ic­al In­siders Dan Al­len, Stan An­der­son, Gary An­dres, Saul­i­us (Saul) Anuzis, Rich Ashooh, Whit Ayres, Brett Bader, Mitch Bain­wol, Bri­an Baker, Gary Bauer, Dav­id Beck­with, Paul Ben­necke, Clark Ben­son, Wayne Ber­man, Bri­an Bieron, Charlie Black, Kirk Bla­lock, Car­mine Boal, Jeff Boeyink, Ron Bon­jean, Jeff Bu­ley, Luke Byars, Nick Calio, Al Carde­n­as, Danny Car­roll, Alex Cas­tel­lanos, Ron Christie, Jim Cic­coni, Jonath­an Col­le­gio, Rob Collins, Cesar Conda, Jake Cor­man, Scott Cot­ting­ton, Jay Cran­ford, Greg Crist, Di­ane Crookham-John­son, Fer­gus Cul­len, Tom Dav­is, Mike Den­nehy, Ken Duber­stein, Debi Durham, Sara Fa­gen, Frank Fahren­kopf, John Fee­hery, Don Fierce, Mindy Finn, Carl Forti, Alex Gage, Bruce A. Gates, Sam Geduldig, Adam Geller, Ben­jamin Gins­berg, Dav­id Gir­ard-di­Carlo, Bill Green­er, Jonath­an Grella, Lanny Grif­fith, Janet Mullins Gris­som, Doug Gross, Todd Har­ris, Steve Hart, Chris­toph­er Healy, Ral­ph Hell­mann, Chris Hen­ick, Terry Holt, Dav­id Ian­nel­li, Ed Ingle, Jim In­no­cenzi, Clark Judge, Dav­id Keat­ing, Dav­id Ken­sing­er, Bob Kjel­lander, Ed Kut­ler, Chris La­Civ­ita, Jim Lake, Steven Law, Steve Lom­bardo, Kev­in Mad­den, Joel Maiola, Gary Malo­ney, Dav­id Mar­in, Mary Matal­in, Dan Mat­toon, Bri­an Mc­Cor­mack, Mark McKin­non, Kyle Mc­Slar­row, Ken Mehl­man, Jim Mer­rill, Lisa Cam­ooso Miller, Tim Mor­ris­on, Mike Murphy, Phil Musser, Ron Nehring, Terry Nel­son, Neil Ne­w­house, Dav­id Nor­cross, Zi­ad Ojakli, Jack Oliv­er, Todd Olsen, Kev­in O’Neill, Con­nie Par­toy­an, Billy Piper, Van B. Poole, Tom Rath, Scott Reed, Dav­id Rehr, Tom Reyn­olds, Steve Roberts, Jason Roe, Dav­id Roeder­er, Dan Schnur, Russ Schriefer, Rich Schwarm, Brent Seaborn, Rick Shelby, An­drew Shore, Kev­in Shuvalov, Don Sipple, Ken Spain, Fred Steep­er, Bob Steven­son, Terry Sul­li­van, Dav­id Tamasi, Eric Tan­en­blatt, Richard Temple, Heath Thompson, Jay Tim­mons, War­ren Tomp­kins, Ted Van Der Meid, Dirk van Don­gen, Jan van Lo­huizen, Stew­art Ver­dery, Dick Wadhams, John Weaver, Lezlee West­ine, Dave Win­ston, Ginny Wolfe, Fred Wszolek, and Mat­thew Zablud.

Does the decision to delay the Keystone XL pipeline help, hurt, or have no effect on your party's prospects in November?

DEMO­CRATS (89 VOTES)

Help: 24%
Hurt: 23%
No ef­fect: 53%

Help

“Helps be­cause if he ap­proved it now, could hurt turnout among the base. Those Dems who sup­port it can bang the pres­id­ent; those op­posed can lobby the ad­min­is­tra­tion to block it.”

“Good for the base.”

“Tap dan­cing in place would seem to be the or­der of the day, with post-midterm ap­prov­al ex­pec­ted.”

“Red-state Dems can claim vic­tory on the delay, and the en­viros can still or­gan­ize around the threat.”

Hurt

“While it mol­li­fies the en­vir­on­ment­al base, it adds to the nar­rat­ive of Demo­crat­ic feck­less­ness, here and abroad.”

“We need to pass it. We are mak­ing great pro­gress on clean, af­ford­able en­ergy. Keep it go­ing.”

“The Demo­crat­ic base is not af­fected, no mat­ter what Tom Stey­er wants, but in­de­pend­ents are fur­ther com­prom­ised.”

“The voters just see this as jobs, jobs, jobs; and we’re stand­ing in the way. I wish the spot­ted owls voted in midterms.”

No ef­fect

“Nobody out­side of the coastal elites and some folks in the states where it would go really care.”

“It cuts both ways. It gives ad­voc­ates a cudgel with which to ham­mer the pres­id­ent and prove their dis­tance, and it keeps op­pon­ents fully en­gaged through the elec­tions.”

No de­cision means no im­pact.”

Does the decision to delay the Keystone XL pipeline help, hurt, or have no effect on your party's prospects in November?

RE­PUB­LIC­ANS (98 Votes)

Help: 75%
Hurt: 12%
No ef­fect: 13%

Help

“It fur­ther de­mor­al­izes part of the Demo­crat­ic base — labor uni­ons and oth­ers in­ter­ested in eco­nom­ic growth.”

“Shows that he fa­vors en­vir­on­ment­al­ists over jobs. Will par­tic­u­larly hurt Landrieu, Be­gich, Pry­or, Walsh, and Hagan.”

” ‘Drill, baby, drill’ is an easy slo­gan for GOP vo­lun­teers to re­mem­ber, and it works.”

“Obama has pivoted to everything but cre­at­ing jobs dur­ing his ten­ure.”

“In many key states, it’s one more data point about how this ad­min­is­tra­tion doesn’t get it when it comes to job cre­ation and eco­nom­ic growth.”

“Dem can­did­ates will say they op­pose the ad­min­is­tra­tion, but they can­not hide from it.”

“The ad­min­is­tra­tion looks both polit­ic­al and weak with the de­cision to delay Key­stone.”

“A dither­ing ad­min­is­tra­tion is a be­ne­fit for our side.”

“Key­stone will be an is­sue in some key races, but his lack of lead­er­ship will be a theme around the coun­try.”

“It cre­ates a very pos­it­ive policy con­trast for Re­pub­lic­ans that en­com­passes the huge is­sue of jobs/eco­nomy.”

“It blunts the anti-Koch rhet­or­ic of the left by pan­der­ing to Stey­er.”

Hurt

“When you can use the uni­ons against the pres­id­ent, it’s nev­er a good day for the home team.”

No ef­fect

“Dumb policy-wise, but real voters aren’t mak­ing de­cisions based on Key­stone.”

“Most people don’t care about Key­stone.”

… … … … …

Demo­crat­ic Polit­ic­al In­siders Jill Alp­er, John An­za­lone, Brad Ban­non, Dave Beat­tie, Andy Bech­hoe­fer, Cor­nell Belch­er, Matt Ben­nett, Mitchell W. Ber­ger, Mike Ber­man, Stephanie Bosh, Paul Brath­waite, Donna Brazile, Mark Brew­er, Ed Bruley, George Bruno, Bon­nie Camp­bell, Bill Car­rick, Guy Cecil, Mar­tin J. Chavez, Tony Coelho, Larry Co­hen, Jerry Craw­ford, Brendan Daly, Jeff Daniel­son, Peter Daou, Howard Dean, Scott De­Fife, Jim De­mers, Tad Dev­ine, Dav­id Di Mar­tino, Debbie Din­gell, Mon­ica Dix­on, Patrick Dor­ton, Pat Du­jakovich, An­ita Dunn, Jeff Eller, Steve El­men­d­orf, Carter Eskew, Vic Fazio, Peter Fenn, Scott Fer­son, Jim Fleischmann, Tina Flournoy, Don Fo­ley, Jef­frey For­bes, Vin­cent Fril­lici, Gina Glantz, Niles Godes, John Mi­chael Gonza­lez, Joe Grand­mais­on, Anna Green­berg, Stan Green­berg, Pat Griffin, Larry Griso­lano, Mi­chael Gron­stal, Lisa Grove, Mar­cia Hale, Jill Hanauer, Dick Har­poot­li­an, Paul Harstad, Laura Hartigan, Doug Hat­t­away, Mike Henry, Kar­en Hicks, Leo Hindery Jr., Har­old Ickes, Mar­cus Jadotte, John Jameson, Steve Jard­ing, Jona­thon Jones, Jim Jordan, Gale Kauf­man, Lisa Koun­toupes, Celinda Lake, Dav­id Lang, Penny Lee, Chris Le­hane, Jeff Link, Bob Malo­ney, Jim Man­ley, Steve Marchand, Jim Mar­gol­is, Paul Maslin, Keith Ma­son, Susan Mc­Cue, Ger­ald McEntee, Steve McMa­hon, Tom McMa­hon, Phil Mc­Namara, Dav­id Med­ina, Mi­chael Mee­han, Mark Mell­man, John Mer­rigan, Mi­chael Mon­roe, Steve Murphy, Janet Na­pol­it­ano, Dav­id Nas­sar, Mar­cia Nich­ols, John Nor­ris, Tom Ochs, Tom O’Don­nell, Jef­frey Peck, De­bora Pig­na­telli, Tony Podesta, Je­frey Pol­lock, Jack Quinn, Larry Rasky, Mame Re­iley, Ed Rendell, Steve Ric­chetti, Will Robin­son, Steve Rosenth­al, Dav­id Rudd, Ry­an Rudom­in­er, John Ry­an, Mi­chael Sar­geant, Stephanie Schriock, Terry Shu­maker, Sean Sin­clair, Phil Sing­er, Erik Smith, Doug Sosnik, Greg Speed, Darry Sragow, Ken Strasma, Doug Thor­nell, Jef­frey Tram­mell, Ed Tur­l­ing­ton, Rick Wien­er, James Wil­li­ams, JoDee Win­ter­hof, Bri­an Wolff, Jon Young­dahl, and Jim Zo­gby.

GOP Polit­ic­al In­siders Dan Al­len, Stan An­der­son, Gary An­dres, Saul­i­us (Saul) Anuzis, Rich Ashooh, Whit Ayres, Brett Bader, Mitch Bain­wol, Bri­an Baker, Gary Bauer, Dav­id Beck­with, Paul Ben­necke, Clark Ben­son, Wayne Ber­man, Bri­an Bieron, Charlie Black, Kirk Bla­lock, Car­mine Boal, Jeff Boeyink, Ron Bon­jean, Jeff Bu­ley, Luke Byars, Nick Calio, Al Carde­n­as, Danny Car­roll, Alex Cas­tel­lanos, Ron Christie, Jim Cic­coni, Jonath­an Col­le­gio, Rob Collins, Cesar Conda, Jake Cor­man, Scott Cot­ting­ton, Jay Cran­ford, Greg Crist, Di­ane Crookham-John­son, Fer­gus Cul­len, Tom Dav­is, Mike Den­nehy, Ken Duber­stein, Debi Durham, Sara Fa­gen, Frank Fahren­kopf, John Fee­hery, Don Fierce, Mindy Finn, Carl Forti, Alex Gage, Bruce A. Gates, Sam Geduldig, Adam Geller, Ben­jamin Gins­berg, Dav­id Gir­ard-di­Carlo, Bill Green­er, Jonath­an Grella, Lanny Grif­fith, Janet Mullins Gris­som, Doug Gross, Todd Har­ris, Steve Hart, Chris­toph­er Healy, Ral­ph Hell­mann, Chris Hen­ick, Terry Holt, Dav­id Ian­nel­li, Ed Ingle, Jim In­no­cenzi, Clark Judge, Dav­id Keat­ing, Dav­id Ken­sing­er, Bob Kjel­lander, Ed Kut­ler, Chris La­Civ­ita, Jim Lake, Steven Law, Steve Lom­bardo, Kev­in Mad­den, Joel Maiola, Gary Malo­ney, Dav­id Mar­in, Mary Matal­in, Dan Mat­toon, Bri­an Mc­Cor­mack, Mark McKin­non, Kyle Mc­Slar­row, Ken Mehl­man, Jim Mer­rill, Lisa Cam­ooso Miller, Tim Mor­ris­on, Mike Murphy, Phil Musser, Ron Nehring, Terry Nel­son, Neil Ne­w­house, Dav­id Nor­cross, Zi­ad Ojakli, Jack Oliv­er, Todd Olsen, Kev­in O’Neill, Con­nie Par­toy­an, Billy Piper, Van B. Poole, Tom Rath, Scott Reed, Dav­id Rehr, Tom Reyn­olds, Steve Roberts, Jason Roe, Dav­id Roeder­er, Dan Schnur, Russ Schriefer, Rich Schwarm, Brent Seaborn, Rick Shelby, An­drew Shore, Kev­in Shuvalov, Don Sipple, Ken Spain, Fred Steep­er, Bob Steven­son, Terry Sul­li­van, Dav­id Tamasi, Eric Tan­en­blatt, Richard Temple, Heath Thompson, Jay Tim­mons, War­ren Tomp­kins, Ted Van Der Meid, Dirk van Don­gen, Jan van Lo­huizen, Stew­art Ver­dery, Dick Wadhams, John Weaver, Lezlee West­ine, Dave Win­ston, Ginny Wolfe, Fred Wszolek, and Mat­thew Zablud.

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