 Very likely: 52.6% |
 Somewhat likely: 42.1% |
 Somewhat unlikely: 5.3% |
 Very unlikely: 0% |
 Very likely: 5.9% |
 Somewhat likely: 35.3% |
 Somewhat unlikely: 41.2% |
 Very unlikely: 17.6% |
VERY LIKELY
"He's probably one of the smartest men to ever get elected, and his chances of rising to the occasion are great -- not just relatively (compared to what preceded him, almost anyone with an ounce of good faith would look good), but on an historic scale, as well." Howie Klein, Down With Tyranny!
"Not only is he involving a large cross-section of opinion in his plans, including some skill at the skill positions, he is involving the public (who understand the difficulty of the tasks that lie ahead). The previous guy played only to the base, lied to the public, and we know how that worked out." Greg Dworkin, Daily Kos
"Let's say that the economy continues to tank for the next two years, as it's been forecasted. If Obama can at least reverse most of Bush's imperial executive orders as well as pull out of Iraq, that would be enough to make his presidency successful." Liza Sabater, CultureKitchen
"Lots of challenges, but he seems to be the sort of person the country needs: committed to making government work, to innovation and to collaboration." Tracy Viselli, Reno And Its Discontents
"I really hate to make assessments of his administration before it has actually started. There is too much anticipating. Everything Barack Obama does and says is being overanalyzed to a point way past absurdity. That said, I think he has the intelligence and leadership skills to make real progress." Barbara O'Brien, The Mahablog
"If he can continue to reach across the aisle in Congress, stay connected to the grassroots and share the credit for accomplishments, he can have a successful presidency." Matt L. Barron, RuralVotes
"Difficult times can produce excellent presidents. Or not, as in the case of George W. Bush." Robert Farley, Lawyers, Guns And Money
SOMEWHAT LIKELY
"I think some people are just so excited to be out of the Bush era that anything will seem better. But I worry that he won't live up to the expectations." Maegan la Mala, VivirLatino
"Obama is likely to have large majorities in both houses of Congress for the entirety of his first term. How he chooses to use those majorities will go a long way toward determining how successful he will be. He should look toward accomplishments, more than simply accommodating Republicans for the sake of a perceived bipartisanship." Brian Leubitz, Calitics
"Obama's biggest obstacles: 1) Obstructionist Senate Republicans; 2) Harry Reid's fecklessness in dealing with them; 3) Entrenched corporate interests, which badly want things like health care reform and card-check to fail." David NYC, Swing State Project
"He has quite a mess to clean up, and somehow the Republicans will find a way to pin it on him." Susie Madrak, Suburban Guerrilla
SOMEWHAT UNLIKELY
"Judging by his current Cabinet appointments, the next two years at least are going to be Clinton-era 'triangulation' and there will be no real progressive reform. Foreign policy will also be a mess, as AIPAC and what's left of the neocons will prevent Obama from talking to the Iranians in any meaningful way." Sean-Paul Kelley, The Agonist
VERY LIKELY
"He will be a successful president because eventually the economy will recover. It really won't make any difference if his actions had any effect or not, he will still get credit for it. The media that was so remarkably incurious about his dubious political connections or questionable fundraising will deflect most criticism away from him. I suspect that he's also smart enough not to ruin his reputation by engaging in risky behavior like Bill Clinton did." David Gerstman, Soccer Dad
SOMEWHAT LIKELY
"'Likely' is a term that will be ultimately defined by the media. As most in the media adore him, President Obama (and even Chris Matthews said it's their job to see to it) will 'do' just fine." Bob Parks, Black And Right
"His party holds both houses of Congress -- what could go wrong? :-)" J.R. Hoeft, Bearing Drift
SOMEWHAT UNLIKELY
"It depends on the yardstick. He has the opportunity to be great because he's facing huge economic and global crises. Both of those have the ability to destroy him, though, as he is unlikely to be able to 'fix' the economy in time for his re-election bid." James Joyner, Outside The Beltway
"Many of his appointments suggest that he could exceed the pessimistic view of conservatives who saw him as a hard leftist. We know he can run a campaign; we don't yet know how well he can run the executive branch. He will be tested early by Iran, Venezuela and/or Russia; if he lets them bully him, he will become a one-term failure like Carter." David Kopel, The Volokh Conspiracy
"He's already demonstrating that he leads from behind, floating gracefully from one position to another in a determined effort to satisfy all polling constituencies. For him, the 'vision thing' is defined by his own popularity on a daily basis, and that seems to me to be the antithesis of leadership." Bookworm, Bookworm Room
"The Middle East and the economy will prove to be Obama's undoing." D.S. Hube, The Colossus Of Rhodey
"He has a lot going for him, but he also takes office at a terribly difficult time. Things will get a bit worse before they get better. If he deals with the economy OK, he will be considered a good president. It is likely that the economy will improve before the end of his first term." Michael van der Galien, PoliGazette
"Like Bill Clinton, Obama will be a political success only if he accepts limited policy ambitions and distances himself from his party in Congress." Dan McLaughlin, Baseball Crank
"The presidency is a challenge, driven many times by outside events no one predicts. Some, like the current occupant of the White House, simply don't measure up to what gets thrown at them. Will Obama? I doubt it, but time will tell." Robert Miller, JoshuaPundit
VERY UNLIKELY
"His decision-making ability appears to be inadequate, and, like the Chicago-style politician he is, always includes an 'out.' A waffler will bring a Carter second term -- the last guy to hold the office in a near-constant state of paralysis. It will take more than references to Abe Lincoln to actually be an Abe Lincoln." Doug Lambert, GraniteGrok
"I think Obama is in over his head. When he walks into the Oval office for the first time, I hope he has a 'come to Jesus moment' realizing the responsibilities that now are on his shoulders." Debbie Hamilton, Right Truth
"Raising taxes and government spending during a recession has a long and storied history of failure. It's too bad Obama can't learn from it." Rob Port, Say Anything
Terrible: 100%
Terrible: 17.6%