3. Florida-08 Alan Grayson (D)
If you like candidates who keep to tightly scripted talking points, Grayson’s not your guy. After Rush Limbaugh said he hoped Obama and his policies would fail, Grayson remarked, "Limbaugh actually was more lucid when he was a drug addict. If America ever did 1 percent of what he wanted us to do, then we'd all need painkillers." At a Hotline panel this month, NRCC Executive Director Guy Harrison called Grayson a "walking quote machine." In general, Republicans regard Grayson's '08 win as a fluke. He beat a lackluster incumbent in Ric Keller (R), who barely survived his own primary, and benefited from having Obama at the top of the ticket (52 percent in the district). Republicans could win if Grayson continues to provide fodder for them, and if they can turn those quotes into arguments that Grayson's out of step with this swing district. Two Republicans mentioned here are Orange County Mayor Richard Crotty and former state Sen. Daniel Webster -- and as a plus for the party, they both have assured the other that only one of them would run. Either one would provide a stiff challenge to Grayson.
This is still a GOP district, and Perriello's surprising 727-vote win over Rep. Virgil Goode (R) hasn’t convinced Republicans that he is unbeatable. In fact, to show how vulnerable the NRCC believes Perriello to be, it aired its first TV ad of the cycle against him in mid-February. Perriello defeated Goode, many believe, because Goode had never faced a competitive contest before and was unprepared for the upstart challenge. Goode has already formed an exploratory committee for 2010, but he is undecided on a challenge. He’s already attacking Perriello’s early votes, and has even continued to hold public events as a former congressman. If he decides to run, he’ll need to learn the lessons of his failed ’08 bid. If not, Republicans won’t fare much better.
Democrats have been fixated on beating the six Republicans who saw John Kerry and Obama win their districts (Obama took 62 percent in Delaware, while Kerry collected 53 percent). And Castle appears to be at the top of the list. The DCCC has already recruited former Lt. Gov. John Carney into the race, and polls show that while the incumbent leads in the early going, he still polls under 50 percent. Castle's never had to sweat any of his eight re-election bids, as he’s built up an independent and moderate image in the state. But Carney will likely have the cash to give Castle his strongest challenge ever. In his announcement last week, Carney indicated that Castle’s ties to the GOP would be an issue in the campaign. Moreover, if Castle retires or runs for Senate, the Dems would likely win the seat. Outside of Castle, the GOP bench is rather short.
Regardless of whether Gerlach runs for re-election or governor, this seat will be at the top of the Democrats' target list. Gerlach outspent a relative unknown by more than 3-1 in a very quiet '08 race, and he still just eked out a 52 percent win. And that was his best performance since winning the seat in '02. Already, former Philadelphia Inquirer editorial writer Douglas Pike (D) has declared his interest, and reportedly might add $1 million of his own money into the contest. If he turns out to be the real deal, or if one of the elected officials who are considering the race wins the primary, Dems stand a real chance. The base of this district -- Chester County -- has been trending blue for several elections, and more Dems have been elected to office in this onetime GOP stronghold. State Rep. Curt Schroder (R) may run if Gerlach doesn’t, but Dems would still have the early edge here if Gerlach does bail.
McCotter earned just 51 percent in '08, and Dems have him in their crosshairs. He has never overwhelmed his opponents in this suburban Detroit seat, despite outspending them greatly. That played out in '08, as he defeated attorney Joseph Larkin (D) by just 20,000 votes, even though Larkin spent only $29,000 on the race. Of course, Obama’s performance helped, as he took 54 percent in the district. McCotter knows he’s in trouble, as he’s shifted positions on S-CHIP and voted for the bill earlier this year, after vowing in the previous Congress not to do so. He’s also becoming more of a presence on cable TV, using the appearances to talk about the economy and Detroit’s auto problems. Dems could win if voters continue to punish Republicans in Michigan for the poor economy; last cycle, they ousted Reps. Tim Walberg and Joe Knollenberg. Democrats are extremely excited about this race, but they’ve yet to line up a candidate; state House Speaker Andy Dillon (D) has already turned down a bid. But as McCotter has proven in the past, it doesn’t take a strong challenger to put a scare into him.
The GOP appears to have nailed down a top-tier recruit in Manchester Mayor Frank Guinta. He’s one of the few Republicans who’ve seen their star rise in a state that has taken a sharp turn toward Democrats in recent cycles. And Shea-Porter, despite defeating former Rep. Jeb Bradley (R) with 52 percent, still has Republicans convinced she’s beatable. Her lackluster fundraising in the first quarter (just $130,000) didn’t help her cause. John Stephen (R), a former candidate and former state Health and Human Services secretary, is also considering running, but he wouldn't be the home run Guinta would be.
Former Rep. Steve Chabot (R) has proved that the term “rerun” doesn’t have to be negative. In fact, he actually outraised and out-banked Driehaus in the first quarter. Driehaus ran a strong campaign in 2008, but Chabot’s loss can also be attributed to the high African-American population (27 percent) in his district, which turned out in huge numbers to support Obama (he took 54 percent here). Obama, of course, won’t be on the ballot -- at least physically -- in ’10. Chabot’s task is convincing voters it was a mistake to throw him out. His first-quarter take shows that right now, he’s the most viable of the rerun candidates out there. Will that hold up as we enter election year?
Markey is running in a marginally Republican district (McCain took 50 percent here), and she won’t have the fortune of running against predecessor Marilyn Musgrave (R) again. It appears Republicans are champing at the bit to challenge her, as University of Colorado Regent Tom Lucero is already in the race, and state Rep. Cory Gardner and former Fort Collins City Council member Diggs Brown -- among others -- are considering it. The GOP could win if the district reverts to its GOP-loving ways: President Bush took 57 percent in 2000 and 58 percent in 2004, and ex-Rep. Bob Schaffer (R) never had much difficulty hanging on to this seat. But Musgrave was never able to shake her negative image, and the affable Markey won in a walk. Will a fresh face give the GOP its mojo back here?
Reichert is always a top Dem target. Former Microsoft executive Suzan DelBene (D) has shown early that she’s not afraid to throw her own money into the race -- so far, she’s put in $200,000 and has nearly $300,000 in the bank. That’s $150,000 more than what Reichert’s showing right now. For sure, Reichert is no slouch, and has earned the benefit of the doubt in this left-leaning district. But DelBene says she’s a different candidate than '06/'08 nominee Darcy Burner (D), and will concentrate on Pierce County -- the place that has provided Reichert with much of his winning margin the last several cycles. If that base goes, so will Reichert. But he’s built up strong support in his years as King County sheriff, and that indie image has seen him through some seriously difficult times for the GOP in Washington state.
Democrats have finally found a credible challenger for the 20-term incumbent. State Sen. Charlie Justice jumped into the race last week, and he will likely be Young’s toughest competition ever. Since winning the seat in ’70, Young has never taken less than 57 percent. That’s part of the reason Dems consider him vulnerable -- they wonder if he’s rusty. In the past few cycles, Young hasn’t raised much money in the first quarter, leading to speculation he may retire. This year, he raised just $7,000; he says he's planning to run again, but he won’t decide for sure until '10 rolls around. What would happen if Young does not take Justice’s threat seriously? We saw that even a second-tier recruit like Tom Perriello in Virginia-05 could shock an incumbent who was previously seen as unbeatable. Florida-10 is a much more dangerous district for a Republican, and Young can’t be caught napping. Or if Young retires, the dynamics of the district make an open seat race a very difficult one for Republicans.
This is still a strongly Republican district, and Childers won’t be given the advantage in a geography contest again. In both his special election win and his subsequent re-election, Childers faced Southaven Mayor Greg Davis (R). Southaven is seen as a Memphis suburb, removed from the Tupelo base of the district. That gave Childers all the opening he needed in the special election. Even though Davis won his home -- DeSoto County -- 75 percent to 25 percent, Childers took every other county but three in the 24-county district to win 54 percent to 46 percent. That trend held up in the general election. Republicans could win if they solve their geography problem. It could happen if they nominate state Sen. Alan Nunnelee, who’s from the Tupelo area. The other Republican contemplating a run is state Sen. Merle Flowers, but he's from DeSoto County, and that could exacerbate the GOP's problem. Of course, Flowers may also turn out to be a better candidate than the lackluster Davis.