Barack Obama "is outspending" John McCain "by nearly 3 to 1 on television advertising in the final weeks of the presidential campaign," a strategy which "is almost certainly contributing to" Obama's "momentum in key battleground states." From 9/30 to 10/6, Obama spent over $20M "on TV ads in 17 states," including "more than" $3M in PA, and "more than" $2M each in FL, MI and OH. During the same period, McCain "spent a total of" $7.2M "in 15 states," though the RNC has spent $5.3M in IN, MI, OH, PA and VA.
Obama "has used the money to hammer McCain as a clone of President Bush and out of touch on key domestic issues, most notably the economy." Obama's "ad-spending strategy has been based on the idea of straining the GOP's cash reserves by forcing McCain to devote resource to nontraditional battlegrounds," including IN, NC, CO and VA.
"Obama outspent McCain in 13 of the 15 states where both candidates" were running TV ads. In FL, Obama spent over $2.8M, while McCain spent $623K. In NC, Obama "dropped approximately" $1.5M compared to McCain's $137K. In PA, Obama "spent a little more than" $3M against McCain's $1.2M and the RNC's $807K. Obama spent $1.6M on ads in VA "while the combined forces of McCain and the RNC spent" $909K.
"Spending by the RNC's independent expenditure arm has kept McCain within shouting distance of Obama" in OH and WI. In OH, Obama spent $2.86M "while the combination of McCain" with $1.1M "and the RNC" with $1.66M "gave Democrats just a" $100K "edge." In WI, Obama spent $1.24M, "compared with" $1.03M "for McCain and the RNC."
MN and IA were the only battlegrounds where McCain had "a spending edge on television over Obama in the past week." The McCain camp spent $377K "on TV ads, far more than the" $196K "Obama spent in the same period." In IA, McCain spent $297K "on television, compared with" $224K "for Obama. ... McCain has spent considerable time, attention and money" in IA, "a strategy that has baffled many in the" Obama camp (Cillizza, Washington Post, 10/8).
Fed Up
Both the Obama and McCain camps issued statements 10/8 regarding the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut:
Obama: "I've said before that this is a global crisis that requires a global solution, and so I support the action of the Federal Reserve and other central banks around the world to cut interests rates and ease the mounting pressure on global credit markets. ... But it is clear that more urgent and vigorous action is necessary to stem this crisis, which is making it impossible for businesses large and small to get loans and may have already cost Americans nearly $2 trillion from their retirement accounts. The Treasury Department must move quickly to implement a plan based on the rescue package we passed last week and use the authority they already have to purchase troubled assets, including mortgages. It is also critical that Treasury, in coordination with other government agencies, move as vigorously as possible to help homeowners stay in their homes" (release, 10/8).
McCain: "I applaud the move by the Open Market Committee of the Federal Reserve and other national monetary authorities to reduce interest rates to address the financial crisis spreading across the globe. It is imperative at this moment that government be responsive to the needs of Americans, restore confidence in our financial system, provide assistance to struggling homeowners, and implement pro-growth policies that will create jobs and provide a foundation for a more prosperous future. That is why last night, I called for an American Homeownership Resurgence Plan -- a plan to use taxpayer money not just to bail out Wall Street, but instead to keep families in their homes and to stabilize financial markets from the bottom up" (release, 10/8).
Priorities, Please
"While governors are forces to acknowledge harsh fiscal reality," both Obama and McCain "continue to dodge it." During their 9/26 debate, Obama and McCain "evaded repeated questions... on what they would give up, in priorities, in light of the fiscal crisis."
Obama acknowledged "[t]here are a range of things that are probably going to have to be delayed," without offering specifics. Obama also promised "to roll back the Bush tax cuts." McCain claimed "he would cut spending and lower taxes," and even "tossed out the general notion of a spending freeze on everything but defense, veteran affairs and entitlement programs."
Both Obama and McCain "seem blissfully out of sync with the message of doom and gloom emanating from financial analysts. ... [C]itizens need less hope and hype and more honesty about what it take to live within their means" (Vennochi, Detroit News, 10/8).
Boston Globe editorializes: Although the "construction industry has been especially hard hit by the collapse of the housing market," in a nation "as a substantial backlog in infrastructure needing repair or replacement, construction workers could find plenty of work - if states and municipalities had the funds and borrowing capacity to get needed work done." While Obama includes $50B "in grants to state and local governments part of his economic stimulus plan," he should be pressed on how he would pay for this."
McCain talks about lowering taxes as a "prescription for spurring economic growth," but "taxes already are lower for millions - because their earnings have fallen." Although additional offshore drilling "will create a measure of new jobs," the industry "is already benefiting from high demand for its products," and McCain "needs to propose other job-creation strategies" (10/8).
Stop Whining!
Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger (R-CA) said 10/7 "that the presidential candidates should end the smear campaign and get back to the issues." Schwarzenegger: "Look at what the presidential campaign has reduced down to: They now are accusing each other of things that have nothing to do with the economy, that have nothing to do with health care, that have nothing to do with the environment, that have nothing to do with, you know, how we deal with foreign countries. ... "I think it's very important that we urge both of the candidates to go out and to start talking about those [other] issues again because I think that's what the people want to know."
Schwarzenegger "stopped short of blaming either candidate for the campaign's negative turn," and claimed "some of it is just the nature of a political campaign." When asked about McCain chief strategist Steve Schmidt, Schwarzenegger defended Schmidt and claimed Schmidt is "a guru of this world, and I think that if you want to have a campaign run effectively, he is the man" (AP, 10/7).
Fascinating
New York Observer's Horowitz believes that Obama's "methodical, unflappable style and otherworldly resistance to overt displays of emotion... makes him, by contemporary candidate standards, downright alien." Leonard Nimoy: "He is measured and stable. ... It's true that he has an intellect that works for him, he handles difficult problems with aplomb. Reliability and stability are very important assets in this race, in these particularly volatile times."
McCain, on the other hand, "is the passionate, emotional and all-too-human candidate who strikes a chord with voters but can often be seen to be doing battle in real time, Kirk-like, with the enemy within." The McCain camp "has accurately reflected the candidate's own impulsive nature, focusing on narrative-shifting tactics... to seize control of individual news cycles, at the cost of any appearance of steadiness." Obama chief strategist David Axelrod: "If there is one thing that has to be said about our campaign is that it has been a consistent campaign. ... There is some uncertainty of where Senator McCain is at, because he has been going from pillar to post, from the economy's fundamentally strong to days later, and hours later, perhaps, saying that we are in crisis. That doesn't inspire trust or credibility in your message."
Obama, who "now holds statistically significant leads in national polls," reached "his current position, for the most part, by refusing to budge." Obama "has consistently delivered his 'change' message in a cool, measured and almost emotionally detached manner." GOP strategist Dan Schnur: "Normally voters do prefer a candidate who is more emotionally engaged. ... Obama has had the good sense to recognize the larger political tides and stay out of their way. ... The question for voters is whether they want a fighter or a soother. In these tumultuous times, the soothing approach might be working better. John McCain is best at rallying people to a cause, but it is important for that cause to have a very specific target. When it is Al Qaeda or special interests, that's one thing, but it's harder to rally people against a recession."
Sen. Claire McCaskill (D-MO): "There has been only one candidate in this cycle who has never had any drama. ... There have never been any backbiting or public leaks, there has never been any time that they ran out of money and had a financial crisis. The irony is the McCain people want to say that Barack Obama is risky. Hello? Look in the mirror" (10/7).
Young People These Days
"A record number of young people are expected to vote" 11/4. "Voters under 30, who make up about one-fifth of the electorate, are energized and engaged more than ever before. ... Technology has played a substantial role in reaching younger voters." Student Public Interest Research Groups' New Voters Project dir. Sujatha Jahagirdar: "It has put grass-roots organizing on steroids."
According to Harvard Univ. prof. Thomas Patterson, "the long primary season also helped candidates reach more voters." Obama "has been credited with attracting an unprecedented youth following," and polls suggest Dem "leanings among younger voters."
"A sharp increase in the youth turnout could have an impact in battleground states," such as OH, MI and VA, which have "large student populations." Univ. of MI College GOPers chair Brady Smith: "Even friends who were previously kind of aloof are interested. ... There's a new story line that emerges every day."
In some states, however, "students are faced with confusing registration and voting policies." Election officials in VA and GA "have warned students that registering to vote at a college address, as opposed to their home address, could affect their financial aid or tax status." In IN, "voter identification laws could make balloting difficult for out-of-state students" (Olson, Chicago Tribune, 10/7).
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