On the surface, Sen. Bob Casey(D) "looks like one of the biggest losers" in the Dem presidential contest. Casey backed Barack Obama and traveled with him across the state. In Lackawanna, Casey's home county, Hillary Clinton "crushed" Obama by a 74% to 26% margin. UVA prof. Larry Sabato: "[Casey] proved why presidential candidates want gubernatorial endorsements and couldn't care less about senators. ... Governors control many thousands of votes and senators usually control their 20 staffers- and about half the time, their spouses." Political analysts say that might not be the full story.
Washington & Jefferson College prof. Joseph DiSarro said Casey "could end up on the side of the party's nominee and migh have backed the next president." DiSarro: "I don't believe Casey hurt himself, and he could come out a winner. He got serious exposure across the state and helped himself immeasurably." Ex-Gov. Mark Schweiker (R) press sec. David LaTorre said one big winner in the primary was John McCain. LaTorre: "John McCain didn't have to go through one of the most expensive primary campaigns in the history of our country." LaTorre said the Dems "'ripped each other to shreds,' setting up many issues for McCain in November" (Bumsted, Pittsburgh Tribune-Review, 4/24).
Woo-Tang Forever
For Dems, the question now is how to retain registration switches. For the GOP, it's how to "woo back" those switchers. Both will be looking to attract independents in the fall. In Delaware County, there were over 11K new voter registration, including over 7K Dems and almost 3K GOPers. There were also 15K voter registration switches, with 14K of those going to Dem and 1K going GOP. It was enough of a shift to push GOP registration in the county below 50% for the first time in history. While the election "reflected" a 60% voter turnout for Dems, only 26% of the county's GOP bothered to vote. Delaware County GOP chair Tom Judge: "We're always concerned when we don't get a large turnout, but I think the enthusiasm was there because we had a lot of people at the polls" (Rose, Delco Times, 4/23).
They Call Me The Workin' Man, I Guess That's What I Am
Clinton won in large part because she kept Obama from "burying her in Philadelphia and did much better than expected in the suburbs, targeted by both sides as the key battleground." Obama "needed to offset" Clinton's strength elsewhere by "rolling up big margins in the city and carrying the suburbs." Instead, Clinton "clobbered" Obama by a 2-1 ratio in Bucks County and carried Montgomery County, albeit narrowly. Pollster Terry Madonna: "His only chance of winning the state was to win big in the Philly suburbs, and he fell down there. It was stunning." Analysts said that female voters in the suburbs "rallied around Clinton." Women made up 58% of the Dem primary electorate statewide, and they favored Clinton by 14%. In addition, analysts believe that Obama lost some Jewish voters because of Clinton's strong stand on protecting Israel from Iranian attack.
West Chester Univ. prof. John Kennedy said many analysts mistakenly assumed that Philadelphia's suburbs are well-to-do and full of the kinds of college-educated voters who favored Obama in previous elections. Kennedy: "You look at the numbers among white, working-class communities- Obama got devastated. No wonder he got on the plane to Indiana. He needed to get out of the state" (Fitzgerald/Infield, Philadelphia Inquirer, 4/24).
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