With a large turnout expected, NC GOP consultant Carter Wrenn "estimates that African Americans -- 21.7% of the state’s total population -- could represent as much as 40%" of the Dem electorate. "But beyond the African American vote, North Carolina's changing economic profile is expected to help" Barack Obama, says Dem consultant Gary Pearce.
Pearce "says the state has a lot more young, college-educated, affluent residents than it had 10 or 20 years ago." Economist Matthew Martin, who studies NC for the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, "explains that as legacy industries such as textiles, furniture manufacturing and tobacco farming have been shrinking, 'what's developed is a very highly skilled service economy.' NC "has attracted lots of more liberal, college-educated workers, who help fill out Obama’s coalition" (Phillips, Wall Street Journal, 4/23).
As on mid-afternoon 4/23, more than 74.7K "'one-stop' ballots had been cast" -- about 8 times higher than during the '06 primary. An additional 8.4K absentee ballots had been collected." Voter registration is up overall, "but the biggest boost has been among blacks." More than 45K black voters have registered in the first 3 months of '08, compared with 11K 4 years ago (Barker, AP, 4/24).
No Good News Here
"In the neighborhood surrounding the Gold Toe/Moretz mill on Plaid Street, where the textile machines' whine is a constant noise, ought to belong to" Hillary Clinton. "Still, many folks can't decide between her and" Obama. "A few -- although they are" Dems -- "are waiting for the Republican in November."
"In this corner of the state, residents and workers agree on this much: The economy feels horrible. And they aren't certain how the next president can reverse the trend." According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, in the past 5 years, about 76K workers have lost their jobs to foreign trade (Barrett, Raleigh News & Observer, 4/24).
Play Nice
The NC primary "intensified" 4/23. The NC GOP "entered the fray by unveiling a controversial TV ad that features a clip of Obama's pastor excoriating the United States." The ad goes on to criticize the 2 Dems running to NC GOV. Both John McCain and the RNC asked the NC GOP not to run the ad. NC GOP chair Linda Daves said 4/23 "that she intends to go on as planned." Daves: "It's about two gubernatorial candidates who endorsed someone who has allowed himself to sit under the tutelage of extreme anti-American teaching. And it is about judgment and leadership."
NC Dem Chair Jerry Meeks, in a release: "It clearly is the case that this is part of the 'Southern strategy.' It's been around for a long time. This is a page directly out of something that Jesse Helms would do." Daves: "They use that term 'play the race card.' That is one of the best ways in the world to distract people from the issue at hand" (Romoser, Winston-Salem Journal, 4/24).
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