The NRCC is planning on reserving $22M in TV time in 40 CDs -- 39 of which are held by Dems -- for the fall (Isenstadt, Politico, 8/17). The cmte hasn't reserved or purchased TV time; they're only planning on doing so (Hotline sources, 8/17).
While Dems have reserved ad time in 60 races so far, "the vast majority of those" -- 54 -- are designed to protect vulnerable incumbents. GOPers on the other hand "are investing in an almost entirely offensive effort." Notably, the NRCC "has yet to announce plans to defend several imperiled" incumbents, including Reps. Charles Djou (R-HI 01) and Joseph Cao (R-LA 02) -- "the two incumbents widely considered to be the most endangered" GOPers. The lone GOP-held seat among the initial NRCC plans is retiring Rep. Mark Kirk's (R-IL 10) CD.
One senior GOP official stressed the cmtes plans were "tentative and could change in the weeks to come." The official: "Consider this is a down payment on what is to come in the fall. The playing field is expanding and we plan to be on offense as we continue to close the financial gap in the final weeks."
GOP officials "declined to specify when they would begin running their ads," noting that those decisions "were still being made." The DCCC's reservations encompass the final two weeks of the campaign (Politico, 8/17).
The following is the list of the 40 CDs where the NRCC has plans to purchase ad time in the fall. "DCCC Buy?" indicates whether the DCCC has reserved time in that CD, and "Last Poll" specifies the latest poll released from that CD. Where there were multiple candidates tested, the lead specified was the matchup that was the closest. (D) = Dem pollster; (R) = GOP pollster; M = Media poll.
CD Incumbent PVI DCCC Buy? Last Poll AL-02 Bright (D) R+16 Yes (D) 2/11 -- D+24 AR-01 OPEN (D) R+8 Yes (R) 5/25 -- R+6 CA-11 McNerney (D) R+1 Yes CO-04 Markey (D) R+6 Yes FL-02 Boyd (D) R+6 Yes (R) 4/13 -- R+15 FL-08 Grayson (D) R+2 FL-24 Kosmas (D) R+4 Yes (R) 8/1 -- R+3 GA-08 Marshall (D) R+10 IL-10 OPEN (R) D+6 Yes (D) 5/17 -- D+8 IL-11 Halvorson (D) R+1 Yes (R) 8/5 -- R+11 IN-02 Donnelly (D) R+2 Yes (R) 8/3 -- D+17 IN-08 OPEN (D) R+8 Yes IN-09 Hill (D) R+6 Yes (R) 5/26 -- D+7 KS-03 OPEN (D) R+3 KY-06 Chandler (D) R+9 M 7/27 -- D+14 MD-01 Kratovil (D) R+13 Yes (D) 6/16 -- D+5 MI-01 OPEN (D) R+3 Yes MI-07 Schauer (D) R+2 Yes (R) 1/12 -- R+10 MS-01 Childers (D) R+14 Yes (R) 6/9 -- R+8 NV-03 Titus (D) D+2 Yes M 8/11 -- D+1 NH-01 Shea-Porter (D) EVEN Yes M 7/27 -- D+5 NM-02 Teague (D) R+6 Yes (D) 4/8 -- D+1 NY-20 Murphy (D) R+2 (R) 8/1 -- D+5 NY-24 Arcuri (D) R+2 Yes ND-AL Pomeroy (D) R+10 Yes M 8/11 -- R+9 OH-01 Driehaus (D) D+1 Yes (R) 8/2 -- R+10 OH-15 Kilroy (D) D+1 Yes OH-16 Boccieri (D) R+4 Yes (R) 5/13 -- R+12 PA-03 Dahlkemper (D) R+3 Yes (R) 8/1 -- R+14 PA-07 OPEN (D) D+3 Yes (R) 6/17 -- R+21 PA-11 Kanjorski (D) D+4 Yes (R) 7/13 -- R+19 SC-05 Spratt (D) R+7 Yes (R) 5/18 -- D+2 SD-AL H-Sandlin (D) R+9 Yes M 8/3 -- R+9 TN-08 OPEN (D) R+6 Yes TX-17 Edwards (D) R+20 Yes (R) 5/3 -- R+12 TX-23 Rodriguez (D) R+4 Yes (R) 5/13 -- D+3 VA-02 Nye (D) R+5 Yes (R) 6/15 -- R+6 VA-05 Perriello (D) R+5 Yes (R) 8/1 -- R+6 WV-01 OPEN (D) R+9 Yes (D) 8/2 -- D+16 WI-07 OPEN (D) D+3 Yes e>
This article appears in the August 17, 2010, edition of House Race Hotline.