PA voters go to the polls today. On the Dem side, 158 delegates are at stake, 26 of which are superdelegates. There are 15 pledged to Hillary Clinton, 5 to Barack Obama. On the GOP side, John McCain wrapped up the nomination but he and Ron Paul are on the GOP primary ballot. Polls open at 7 a.m. and close at 8 p.m. (USA Today, 4/22). "Anyone in line when the polls close will be permitted to vote" (Hutton, Philadelphia Daily News, 4/21). PA is the 41st state to hold a primary (Shepard, Austin American-Statesman, 4/21).
"Everyone's grumpy and exhausted, supposedly, and more than ready for it to be over: candidates, reporters and public alike. Everyone, that is, except for millions of people who have yet to vote. ... If you doubt that Pennsylvania voters are stoked, check the turnout" (Traister, salon.com, 4/22). "Thank God it's just about over" (Kornacki, New York Observer, 4/22).
Trouble In Paradise
NBC/National Journal's Anburajan reports, "Obama campaign is saying that they are hearing problems with voting machines in Philly. That machines are breaking down, and only one or two machines working in some african american precincts. They say evidence is anecdotal and they can't point to specific patterns of problems" (4/22).
Going For The Jugular
Clinton and Obama "staggered toward" the PA primary's closing bell 4/21 "trading jabs like two punch-drunk brawlers" (Bender/Davies, Philadelphia Daily News, 4/22).
"After one of the most negative weekends of campaigning so far this election, it's hard to know if either" Obama or Clinton will emerge from today's primary "looking much like a real winner." Viewers, "and presumably voters, may want substance over scandal, but the two campaigns just can't seem to resist going for the knowckout punch."
Dozens of e-mails "have crisscrossed journalists' inboxes in recent days, acusing the other of going 'negative.' Obama devoted fully three-fourths of his speeches to outlining all the reasons why he, not Clinton would make a better president."
Clinton "accussed Obama of cheering for" McCain after he said that all three of them would make better Presidents than Bush. Obama accused Clinton "of playing the 'politics of fear' after she released an ad featruing Osama bin Laden and the lines 'Harry Truman said it best -- if you can't stand the heat, get out of the kitchen. ... Who do you think has what it takes?'" (Newton-Small, Time.com, 4/21).
"Clinton echoed the theme of her ad throughout appearances" 4/21 "in Scranton, Harrisburg and Pittsburgh, where she was joined by her husband." Obama "initially did little to help counter Clinton's claims" that he "could not deal with hard questions and difficult issues. As he greeted voters at a diner in Scranton, Obama shrugged off a reporter's question about foreigh policy by saying, 'Why can't I just enjoy my waffle?'"
"After days to floggin each other on the airwaves," the 2 Dems "toned down the harsh language that they employed in their weekend appearances, ending the race on a comparatively high note." Clinton "talked up her years in public life," while Obama "scarcely mentioned Clinton in a town-hall style meeting in Blue Bell" (Nichilas/Noam, Los Angeles Times, 4/22).
CNN's Crowley, on what to expect from the campaigns in terms of ads: "Do not expect an end to these negative ads as we move forward to Indiana and North Carolina. The shorter the time left to pick up these delegates, the more negative these ads become" ("Situation Room," 4/21).
Oh No, She Didn't!
"A small but feisty band" of pro-Clinton women "staked out the pathway to" an Obama speech 4/20, "forcing rally-goers to pass through a gantlet of riducule. They taunted Obama supporters over their candidate's age ('We should have a teenager in there next!'), charisma ('It's the Second Coming!') and recent comment about 'bitter' small town-voters." Clinton supporter: "Are you bitter? They're too rich to be bitter!" Obama supporter: "Yes, I'm bitter! I'm bitter about Hillary serving on the board of Wal-Mart!"
"Obama told supporters that Clinton 'just ignores the facts,' has flip-flopped on trade and the Iraq war, is trying to score 'cheap political points' and learned the 'wrong lessons' from all the the attacks she had endured from" GOPers. Clinton "told her supporters that 'my opponent says one thing and his campaign does another,' accusing Obama of running negative ads while claiming to be the candidate of unity and hope" (Gilbert, Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel, 4/21).
No One's Gonna Rain On My Parade
Charlie Cook writes in Congress Daily AM, it's no wonder Clinton supporters "are wandering around and repeating over and over agian, 'why didn't all this happen sooner?'" The things that contribute to the perception that he is not the perfect Dem nominee "have all come about fairly quickly and somewhat recently." But "it's probably too late to help her, even if she wins by 10 points." It would require "almost unattainable landslides by Clinton in the remaining primaries to make this race close enough to encourage the superdelegates to possibly break a tie in her favor" and "it is less than a 50-50 shot they would break in her favor" (4/22).
The polls show Clinton maintaining the lead she's held in the state for month, but it was Obama and his supporters who seemed like they were ready to celebrate" 4/21. "Obama may have reason to party; even a Clinton win will leave her with one fewer state remaining to close a delegate gap" that puts her under pressure to get out of the race" (Madden, salon.com, 4/22).
Newark Star-Ledger's Farmer writes, "Obama can come away the day's big winner even if he loses -- just as long as he doesn't lose big." Clinton's "only real hope for the nomination lies in overtaking him in the popular vote total, forcing an excuciatingly painful choice" on the convo -- "go with the delegate winner or the popular vote favorite" (4/22).
Rocky Mountain News' Littwin writes, "If Obama comes close, it seems that the race stays pretty much as it is today, which would mean a loss for Clinton because Pennsylvania is the last big state leftover." The Clinton camp "has said that any win is a win and that the pressure is all on Obama, who has outspent Clinton here 2-to-1" (4/22).
CNN contributor Roland Martin: "Clearly, for [Clinton], she needs double digits. But the bottom line is, her people are going to say, a win is a win. Nothing has changed in terms of the argument they're making. Her argument is still electability because she is saying likely can't pass him in delegates. [Obama's] argument is going to be, more delegates, popular vote, game over. And so no matter what happens tomorrow night, they are going to stick to that particular script" ("Election Center," CNN, 4/21).
All That Time For Nothing
"When all is said and done, so little is actually at stake." Obviously if Obama wins, something will have changed. "But that's not likely" (New York Observer, 4/22).
CNN's Acosta, on what could happen post-PA: "A surprise Obama upset could conceivably sweep a good number of uncommitted superdelegates into his camp. Anything less than decisive for either side could leave this race right where it is right now: unresolved" ("Situation Room," 4/21).
Time's Halperin, on what the rest of the race looks like: "I think we're too focused on the question of the margin in Pennsylvania as the thing to look at. There are two things to look at to get her out of the race, assuming she's not going to be the nominee. One is Barack Obama getting to a mathematical majority, which he could do, if superdelegates look at the results in Pennsylvania and perhaps Indiana and North Carolina and say, we have seen enough, we're going with Obama. The other thing is if her people tell her to get out of the race. I suspect, if she wins by anything more than just a few points, none of her prominent people will tell her to get out of the race. We're going at least two more weeks."
How Mo' Can You Go
Time's Halperin, on who has the momentum in PA: "Well, I don't think it's clear. Both of them could make the argument they do. I think one of reasons Senator Obama has been so aggressive is he doesn't want a rerun of what happened in Texas and Ohio, where she put up an advertisement in Texas, got a lot of coverage. She seemed to close strong there. She's closed strong in most states. But I think they have done a very good job of being aggressive on TV, with the candidate. There may be a cost in some ways, but I think it has kept her from breaking out" ("Election Center," CNN, 4/21).
This Will Impress Your Friends
"Here's a guide to what to look for as the primary results trickle in."
• "Check for turnout at 1 p.m." By this point, both camps "sould have a good sense of what kind of outcome to expect. They will first look to" Philly, "where a crush of voters early in the day will bode wekk for Obama."
• "Don't be fooled by early results." The cities and suburbs "usually report their returns first, which gives the candidate favored in those areas a quick -- and sometimes fleeting -- lead. The conservative-leaning small towns through the center of the state usually filter in much later.""Follow the undecideds." Voters "who decide late usually go with the candidate who represents something new, potentially giving an edge to Obama.""Watch these towns and neighborhoods." Obama should be aiming for 55% "turnout in African-American wards" in Philly, 60% in the upscale white neighborhoods in Center City Philly and 70% in Lower Merion. Also, for young voter turnout will be in places like State College. "Clinton needs strong turnout" in Northeast Philly and working-class Philly suburbs.
• Key conties to keep and eye on." Analysts point to the '02 GOV race between Clinton supporter/Gov. Ed Rendell (D) and Obama supporter/Sen. Bob Casey (D) "as the closest comparason to the match up between Clinton and Obama." Rendell beat Casey "by winning only 10 counties out of 67 in the state." Rendell won Philly by 160K votes, and swept 4 suburban coutnies -- Bucks, Chester, Delaware and Montgomery -- with 80-90% of the vote. He carries the Lehigh Valley by a 2-to-1 margin (Budoff Brown/Vogel, Politico, 4/22).
More of what to look for:
• "The spread: Clinton needs to win by at least 10 points" to show "she has not lost her touch" in the rust belt."
• "The demographics: A loss by a narrow margin would help Obama argue that he had overvcome the two biggest setbacks of his candicacy:" comments by Rev. Jeremiah Wright and the "bitter comment."
• "The electiability question: After a grueling, six-week campaign," PA voters have the job pf picking between 2 bruised candidates (Wallsten, Los Angeles Times, 4/22).
Watch For Budgers!
"With record numbers of new registrants, voter groups ans election officials warn of the potential for record numbers of problems at the polls today. Though they anticipate the traditional complaints -- errors in voter rills, overzealous poll watchers, and the like -- the overwhelming issue will be the sheer volume." Voters "who show up near the opening and closing times might consider bringing a book or a snack, because they could have along wait in line" (Wood/Clark, Philadelphia Inquirer, 4/22). Dauphin Co. Commissioner Nick DiFrancesco: "There is going to probably be an hour wait in some spots and maybe even longer in other spots" (Cullen, Politco, 4/22).
And The Winner Goes To (Wild Guess ... )
Ex-WH press sec. Tony Snow: "Yes, I guess Hillary's going to win. But it's interesting, her biggest opponent right now is not Barack Obama. It's conventional wisdom, because everybody's trying to set a margin. The fact is, you win, you win. And the argument that she's been making -- I think it's pretty compelling -- you win the big traditionally Democratic state. If Barack Obama's getting ahead in Republican states, do you have a candidate who's going to be able to propel you victory? Notice, she mentioned a couple of things that people have to keep their eyes on. Number one is the seating of the delegations of Michigan and Florida. The second thing is what happens with the super delegates or the automatic delegates, as she said. There's going to be a heavy dose of lobbying from the Obama and the Clinton camps when all is said and done. ... Again, look, I'm not on the Democratic side. I'm not trying to parse the percentage victory. I think a victory is a victory and I think the Clinton team will probably look at it that way. Yes, they want double digits. But they'll take a victory" ("LKL," CNN, 4/21).
Dem. consultant Tad Devine is "defying both conventional wisdom and the polls" to predict Barack Obama will upset Hillary Clinton in PA's primary, "denying her the victory she desperately needs." Devine said when large numbers of voters "wake up on Election Day either undecided or ambivalent about their choice," it holds that they look to broader factors- like the good of the party- for the deciding element. Devine: "Primary elections are sometimes decided by more intangible factors, like the gut feelings that voters have about the candidates, which choice empowers voters the most and the state of the race" (Calmes, Wall Street Journal, 4/22).
CNN's Cafferty, on the stakes in PA: "The stakes are enormous. If Obama should pull an upset, Hillary might be asked by the party leaders to stay home and bake those cookies" ("Situation Room," 4/21).
CNN's Cafferty, on what the PA outcome will determine: "If Clinton wins, as she's expected to, the battle moves to Indiana and North Carolina. Both campaigns [are] hedging expectations about tomorrow's results. An average of the recent polls show Clinton with about a seven-point lead going in. Political experts have been saying that Clinton has to win Pennsylvania by at least double digits for her campaign for the nomination to remain viable. Her supporters, not surprisingly, say no way, not necessary. Clinton has vowed to carry the campaign all the way to the convention. The two candidates have spent tons of time and money. And although Obama has outspent Clinton by perhaps as much as 3-1, she's still expected to win. If he's unable to get the support of those blue-collar workers, it could make some uncommitted superdelegates question just how strong Obama would be in the general election" ("Situation Room," 4/21).
Not To Stereotype Y'all Or Anything...
"If anyone holds the key to" the PA primay, it's "blue-collar Reagan Democrats." They're "patriotic and socially conservative, but wedge issues don't seem to cut it anymore" in PA. "They quintessential Reagan Democrat is white, a union member of the child of one, from an Irish, German or Slavic family. Many are Catholic. Many own guns. Many have drifted back to their political roots." They "wan't help, they want it now, and more than likely, they want it from" Clinton (Gillman, Dallas Morning News, 4/22).
PA "has a higher median age, a higher percentage of whites, a lower median household incme and fewer bachelor's degrees than the overall country," voters who have flocked to Clinton in previous contests. Obama is counting on Philly and it's suburbs. They also hope to do will in Pittsburgh (Kuhnhenn, AP, 4/21).
Although Quakers make up less than 1% of PA's population, "they hope to have an impact far beyond their numbers" in today's primary. Years after William Penn "founded the commonwealth, Quakers dominated the local government and politics." Key "among those causes is opposition to violence and warfare." The society's anti-war advocacy is increasing in mainstream" -- particularly among Dem primary voters. Like many Dems, "many Quakers say they will support the ultimate victor between Clinton and Obama."(Ghandi/Caroom, Newsweek, 4/21).
C'Mon, We Know You Just Like The Extra Attention
Washington Post's Robinson: "The big wild card in this primary is the 300,000 plus new Democratic voters, newly registered Democratic voters. Will they turn out at the polls? Are they, as most people suspect, mostly young people who have been brought into the party by and energized by Barack Obama. If they come out in big numbers, we could be surprised tomorrow" ("Race for the WH," MSNBC, 4/21).
PA-based radio show host Michael Smerconish: "I don't think there are undecided voters. I think you could have run this race 10 days ago and get the same result that you're going to get tomorrow" ("Hardball," MSNBC, 4/21).
CN8's Kane: "Nobody knows what those 312,000 newly registered Democrats will do, where they will turn out. If the turnout is huge in Montgomery, Bucks, and Chester Counties, in Allentown, in Lancaster, in Redding, anything can happen" ("Hardball," MSNBC, 4/21).
Someone Could Use Some Uppers
Time's Klein, on how the candidates are fairing in PA: "One thing I will say is that I spent the weekend in Pennsylvania, one day with Obama, one day with Clinton. And he seemed kind of subdued for him. He's still a very good campaigner, a little bit bummed, maybe a little ticked off. And she was on fire. She really had an awful lot of energy. I think she could feel this moving in her direction. So, I mean, you know, there are a lot of people who want to get rid of her, but, when you watch her work, it doesn't look like she's going to leave any time soon" ("AC 360," CNN, 4/21).
Here's Some Free Advice
• Philadelphia Daily News' Davies writes, "Here's what Hillary needs to succeed ..."
• Get the soccer moms and dads in Philly's suburbs.
• "Hold your working-class base in the 'T.' The Clinton family has long ben popular in the conservative T-shaped region that includes central, northeast and northwest" PA.
• "Romp and stomp out west." There are a high number of undecideds there, and "Clinton has done well among voters who decide last minute in other primaries."
• "Get some traction in Philly"
• Obama needs:
• "Get your base out in droves."
• "Bing out the young-uns."
• "Win the suburbs."
• "Make a dent in the heartland" (4/21).
Time's Halperin, on what Obama and Clinton are each focused on: "What she is focused on keeping those superdelegates frozen while we go forward. What he's focused on is opening up the logjam, getting a lot of superdelegates. That's really all that happens. What we think the margin needs to be doesn't matter" ("Election Center," CNN, 4/21).
Ex-WH spokesperson Dee Dee Myers: "Well, the answer's Hillary Clinton's going to get more votes, but the who wins question will be answered by how many more votes. If she wins by ten points or more, clearly that will be a victory for her. It will feed her momentum coming out of Pennsylvania to the following primaries. If she wins by less than five points, I think that's a clear win for Senator Obama. If it's somewhere in between, we continue with the mushy muddle we've been in a lot in recent weeks. We'll see what the numbers are. Look, Hillary Clinton's shown an extraordinary ability to close. Late-breaking voters in the last bunch of contests have broken strongly for her. We don't know whether that will happen again. The last few weeks have been a bit more negative, particularly the last few days, than what we've seen in previous states. So a lot of questions remain to be answered" ("LKL," CNN, 4/21).
Paying For Votes Was Probably Cheaper
PA could see as much as $25M in spending. As of early last week nearlt $21M had been speant --nearly $18M on advertising. IA saw $42M is spending, but with far more candidates in the race. As of 4/16, Obama spent $8.2M to the Clinton camp's $3.2M (Teinowitz, Advertising Age, 4/21).
CNN's Borger: "You know, the other big issue is money. Barack Obama has a lot more money than Hillary Clinton. And I think, in the end, it's going to be the money people who say to Hillary Clinton, look, we cannot raise anymore money" ("AC 360," 4/21).
CNN's Acosta, on how Obama and Clinton are spending today: "Barack Obama is ending his day in Evansville, Indiana, a concession that many may view that he is perhaps looking forward to what is happening after april 22nd as opposed to what may happen today in the Keystone state. Hillary Clinton is wrapping up her campaign day here in Philadelphia, where she will likely be joined by [PA Gov.] Ed Rendell and [Philadelphia mayor] Michael Nutter" ("American Morning," 4/22).
It All Leads Back To Chi-Town
PA "happens to be the physical location" of the contest, "but in terms of political culturem their duel is situated in Clinton's original home and Obama's current one -- Chicago." The "first of those is Bridgeport, the down-to-earth district from which" Mayor Richard Daley ruled the city in the '50s, '60s and 70s. "The other neioghborhood is Hyde Park," the base for Dem refomers "seeking to supplant the party eastablishment."
Though "Clinton would be appalled to be paired with 'the boss,' Daley," her camp "thus far has been an exercise on Daleyesque clout." Obama "by contrast is pure Hyde Park, as scintillating and idealistic as a professor. At best, Hyde Park represents liberalism at its best," but at "his worst, Obama is the classic Hyde Park snob" (Shlaes, Bloomberg, 4/22).
Football Dads Are Thrilled
"Four groups of voters -- working-class males, young people, rural and small-town Americans and Hispanics -- sand out as the key pieces of" the general election puzzle. "The role of these key voting blocs will be much in evidence in" PA today.
"Forget soccer moms; it's football dads who are more interesting this year." Excitement over the Dem primary, and particularly Obama "attracted waves of young voters" onto voter-registration rolls." Rural and small-town voters "are the best indicators of whether a candidaate is connecting with the values of Middle America." What is less understood is just how heavily McCain's camp "is banking on a strong showing of Hispanics" (Seib, Wall Stret Journal, 4/22).
Snow, on who he thinks will win in November: "Look, I think McCain's going to win, actually, because I think security and the economy both break his way. But on the Democratic side, if you take a look at it, it's basically -- Dee Dee got this right. You have got this charisma and emotion on the part of Obama. Can people stay in love with him from now until November? If so, it makes him a stronger candidates. If, on the other hand, the more you learn about him, the more you fall out of love, that's a campaign that could collapse. Meanwhile, with Hillary Clinton, you have somebody who is battle tested. You have a political machine. You have a lot of experience. And you're going to have the ability to do whatever it takes to try to pull the party together. If you need that kind of machine operation, I think she does better" ("LKL," CNN, 4/21).
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