Monday, Dec. 15, 2008
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"If it was a size 10, I don't think it was that dangerous."
— Ex-WH CoS Andy Card, on the shoes thrown at Pres. Bush, "Morning Joe," MSNBC, 12/15.

Waiting For The Other Shoes To Drop
Weekend developments at home and overseas are once again testing Pres.-elect Obama's honeymoon and carefully crafted post-partisan message.
--Even as Obama's "team of rivals"/ "don't rock the boat" approach to foreign policy has been praised by GOPers and Dems alike, the "shoe" incident in Iraq and a scathing new report on the failure of the reconstruction effort suggests that Obama's team needs to make a decidedly strong course correction in Iraq.
--Meanwhile, the situation in his home state has only gotten murkier. Despite widespread support for Blago's resignation, the only certainty in today's emergency IL legislative session, writes the Chicago Tribune, is "chaos."
--And new reports suggest that Blago may be warming to the idea of handing over his powers to appoint a new Senator as long as there's a special election to fill the seat. This, of course, would only help make the case for GOPers, who've also been putting on a full-court press for a special election.
--So when does Obama weigh in? And, given Emanuel's connection, does he need to back a special election?
--Finally, questions in MN about discarded absentee ballots are being described as the new "hanging chads," making it increasingly unlikely that the Canvassing Board will have the final say in selecting the next MN Sen.
--Any chance we'll see both MN and IL host '09 special Senate elections?

THE ECONOMY
A Star Is Born
Is the rise of TN's Corker the death knell for Detroit and labor-heavy auto manufacturing? Meanwhile, don't look for any deal today from the WH on the bailout. (#3)

Monday, Dec. 15, 2008
- 1 THE TRANSITION - OVERVIEW: Making A List, Checking It Twice
National Briefing

It's Unanimous
There are 7 states which will not send a single GOPer to Congress next year (CT, HI, MA, NM, ND, RI, VT) compared to just one (WY) that will not send any Dems. Indeed, there are 15 states total which will send one or fewer GOPers to ...

National Briefing
THE TRANSITION - OVERVIEW
1. Making A List, Checking It Twice
Chicago Tribune's Secter reports, incoming WH CoS Rahm Emanuel had "conversations" with the "administration" of IL Gov. Rod Blagojevich (D) about "who would replace" Pres.-elect Obama in the Senate.
"The revelation does not suggest Obama's new gatekeeper was involved in any talk of dealmaking involving the seat. But it does help fill in the gaps surrounding a question that Obama was unable or unwilling to answer this week: Did anyone on his staff have contact with Blagojevich about his choice for the Senate seat?"
"One source confirmed that communications" between Emanuel and the Blagojevich admin. "were captured on court-approved wiretaps. Another source said that contact" between the two camps "began the Saturday before the Nov. 4 election, when Emanuel made a call to the cell phone" of Blagojevich ex-CoS Jeff Harris. "The conversation took place around the same time press reports surfaced about Emanuel being approached about taking the high-level" WH post under Obama.
Emanuel "delivered a list of candidates who would be 'acceptable' to Obama." On the list: Obama adviser Valerie Jarrett, IL VA dir. Tammy Duckworth, IL comp. Dan Hynes, and Rep. Jan Schakowsky (D-IL). "Sometime after the election, Emanuel called Harris back to add" IL AG Lisa Madigan "to the approved list."
Schakowsky "said it was natural for Obama to take an interest in the selection process for his Senate seat." Schakowsky: "[Emanuel] indicated that the president-elect would be fine with certain people and I was one of them. ... It makes perfect sense for the president-elect or his people to have some interaction about filling the seat he was vacating."
Emanuel, "who has long been close to both Blagojevich and Obama, has refused to respond to questions about any involvement he may have had with the Blagojevich camp over the Senate pick." A spokesperson for Emanuel "also declined to comment" 12/12 (12/13).
A "stunning report from a Fox TV affiliate in Chicago also cited a source close to the investigation as saying Emanuel had 'multiple' conversations about the Senate seat with Blogajevich and with his aides" (Haberman, New York Post, 12/13).
"There is no evidence that this was part of a deal or quid pro quo" (Weisman/Bendavid/Simpson, Wall Street Journal, 12/15).
Obama's Little Helper
"But if there was any question that the Blagojevich scandal is becoming a distraction for Obama's staff, look no further than Emanuel's front door. The normally talkative Emanuel reportedly ducked out of his house" 12/12, "avoiding questions from the media on his way to the transition offices, according to an ABC report."
"Emanuel's office has declined to say whether he is the 'president-elect adviser' named in the 76-page criminal complaint against Blagojevich, or whether he has been interviewed by the FBI. The complaint cites the 'adviser' several times -- but does not state explicitly" that the IL gov. "ever spoke directly to the unidentified Obama aide" (Henderson, Politico, 12/12).
"Obama advisers also said they assumed that some of Emanuel's conversations with Blagojevich aides were caught on tape, since it was widely known Blagojevich was under federal investigation and that likely meant his communications were being monitored" (Weisman/Bendavid/Simpson, Wall Street Journal, 12/15).
Emanuel "has been receiving death threats in the wake of the pay-to-play scandal." Addressing an ABC News cameraman, Emanuel: "I'm getting regular death threats. You've put my home address on national television. I'm pissed at the networks. You've intruded too much" (Perone, New York Post, 12/14).
"As key members" of Bill Clinton's "defense" against impeachment, then-CoS John Podesta, then-senior adviser Emanuel, and then-special counsel Gregory Craig "bring the lessons of that searing moment to the table as they now serve" in Obama's "inner circle. They learned the imperatives of moving quickly, closing ranks, controlling information and never conceding an inch when" the POTUS "faces a threat."
"Those instincts took over again last week with the furor surrounding" the Blagojevich scandal. "Even though Obama had no known personal involvement, the Clinton veterans understood that was only part of the issue. They had Obama publicly declare he had never spoken" with Blagojevich "about the Senate appointment. They imposed a cone of silence on colleagues so they would not make a remark that could come back to haunt them. And they ordered an internal inquiry to document any contacts" with the gov.'s advisers.
GOPers "were ready to pounce, rushing out statements linking Obama to Blagojevich within an hour or so after" the gov.'s arrest. "They too knew the script and that any opening must be exploited. Politics in this hyperpartisan age, after all, is the ultimate contact sport" (Baker, New York Times, 12/14).
Grinches On Point
GOPers "say they want to know more about Emanuel's role." NRCC spokesperson Ken Spain: "Considering Rahm Emanuel's penchant for being one of the most outspoken political hit men in Washington, it speaks volumes about his possible role in the Blagojevich scandal that he refuses to answer a single question from the press."
On 12/14, the RNC "launched a new Web video, titled 'Questions Remain.' The video highlights the evolving explanations delivered by" Obama "and his advisors concerning their contact with the embattled and scandal-plagued" Blagojevich "despite Obama's promises to instill greater transparency and confidence in government" (release, 12/14).
PA Gov. Ed Rendell (D) "said that the Obama transition team is 'making it a four or five or six-day story' because they have not been frank about discussions" (Henderson, Politico, 12/12).
Chicago Sun-Times' Conason writes, "[E]veryone knows how easily the equations of guilt by association can be constructed: Obama and Blagojevich are both" Chicago Dems "and they know lots of other" Chicago Dems, "some of whom gave money to both of them; therefore, both are products of a corrupt political machine. Suddenly, it is time to measure the tall, skinny guy for an orange jumpsuit" (12/13).
Chicago Tribune's Chapman writes, "The reaction" from IL Dems to the Blago arrest "was swift and severe. ... But Obama had a 'My Pet Goat' moment, freezing up in the face of the shock" (12/14).
The Mav Is Back
Sen. John McCain (R-AZ), asked if he agrees with RNC Chair Mike Duncan that Obama's promise of transparency to the American people is now being tested: "I think that the Obama campaign should and will give all information necessary. You know, in all due respect to the Republican National Committee and anybody -- right now, I think we should try to be working constructively together, not only on an issue such as this, but on the economy stimulus package, reforms that are necessary. ... I have some confidence that all the information will come out. It always does, it seems to me" ("This Week," ABC, 12/14).
Ex-WH CoS Andy Card: "The drama is unfortunate. I happen to believe Rahm Emanuel is a pretty honest guy. And I have confidence that he did the appropriate things" ("Morning Joe," MSNBC, 12/15).
Making Some Illinois
IL AG Lisa Madigan, asked if she has any indication that anyone on Obama's staff has been in contact with Blagojevich or has done anything improper: "I know what you do, what's been reported in the media. And that's actually all I know, in terms of any contact at all between President Obama's staff and our governor or his people" ("Face the Nation," CBS, 12/14).
Madigan, asked if she has any concerns about the potential involvement of Obama or other reps in terms of contacts with Blagojevich: "I do not know the extent or even the existence of those contacts. It doesn't appear, from what I've heard so far, that there's anything improper that has occurred" ("Meet the Press," NBC, 12/14).
IL House Min. Leader Tom Cross (R), asked if there is a possibility that Emanuel did something wrong: "Well, people are going to ask that. I think it's a little premature for any of us to speculate on what was said or what wasn't said or how this is going to impact people. ... I'm not sure, at this point, what all Rahm Emanuel has done or hasn't done" ("Fox News Sunday," FNC, 12/14).
Clouding His Judgment
Today, Obama "will announce his choices to lead" the Energy Dept. and the EPA in a presser that "may be more likely to focus on his home state's scandal over selecting his Senate successor" (Nichols/Goldman, Bloomberg, 12/15).
Card: "I hope that they'll be more transparency as we go forward. Hopefully the transparency will come quickly so that Rahm Emanuel can do the job of chief of staff without a cloud ... hanging over his heads" ("Morning Joe," MSNBC, 12/15).
Incoming AG Eric Holder "may have to consider removing himself from overseeing the Chicago corruption probe that ensnared" Blagojevich. Holder was a co-chair of Obama '08, joining in '07 "when the long-running investigation focused on a businessman who had been among the biggest fundraisers for Obama and Blagojevich."
"The legal ethics issue that Holder may have to deal with, called recusal, could arise if Holder had conversations about the Chicago investigation with Obama or his staff." Author Ron Rotunda: "It's reasonable to ask Holder to recuse because he is a prospective witness. ... If I were Holder I would just recuse myself from the whole thing in order to ensure the integrity of the process" (Yost, AP, 12/15).
Headache In The New Year?
"[W]hile most attention is fixed on the Blagojevich scandal ... it may not be the most troublesome one" for Obama. "His more vexing problem could turn out to be that other, quieter scandal dogging" Dems. "That's the one involving" Rep. Charles Rangel (D-NY), head of the Ways and Means Cmte. Brookings Institute's Thomas Mann: "A huge amount of the high-priority agenda of the Obama administration will work its way through the Ways and Means Committee. Not having a strong chairman is clearly a liability" (Seib, Wall Street Journal, 12/12).
Making Radio Waves
"In the 26 years since the weekly radio address became a modern" WH "staple," POTUSes "have often treated the speech to the nation as a task to be endured rather than an opportunity. Not so with" Obama, "who has been using his four minutes of weekend airtime not only to speak directly to the American people, but also to create news."
On 12/13, "Obama used the address to announce Shaun Donovan," NYC's housing commissioner, "as his nominee to head" HUD. Obama also "sketched out a plan to save or create" 2.5M jobs "over the next two years."
Incoming WH dep. comm. dir. Dan Pfeiffer "said Obama will continue to use the addresses 'to make significant news.' That contrasts sharply" with Pres. Bush, "who presented little policy or political perspective in his radio addresses" (Cillizza, Washington Post, 12/14).
Stimulus Stocking Stuffers
"It's the new buzzword: infrastructure" (Kotkin, Washington Post, 12/14).
Obama "calls it 'the largest new investment in our national infrastructure since the creation of the federal highway system in the 1950s.'" NYC Mayor Mike Bloomberg (I) "compares it to the New Deal -- when workers built hundreds of bridges, dams and parkways -- while saying it could help close the gap with China."
"Most of the infrastructure spending being proposed for the massive stimulus package" that Obama and cong. Dems "are readying, however, is not exactly the stuff of history, but destined for routine projects that have been on the to-do lists of state highway departments for years," Smart Growth America's David Goldberg: "It doesn't have the power to stir men's souls" (MacGillis/Shear, Washington Post, 12/14).
"Plans for a massive stimulus package are drawing comparisons both to the New Deal of the 1930s and to the interstate highway program begun in the late 1950s. The package's price tag -- possibly more than" $500B -- "suggests that it could be at least as broad. But matching them in terms of lasting impact will be a tall order" (MacGillis, Washington Post, 12/14).
Wall Street Journal's Weisman/Soloman report, "Obama's economic team is considering an economic-stimulus program that will be far larger than the two-year, half-trillion-dollar plan under consideration two weeks ago, according to people familiar with the team's thinking." Obama "is expected to be briefed on the broad parameters of the plan next week, with aides still hoping for Congress to pass a bill by the time Obama takes office."
"With the unemployment rate now expected to hit 9% without aggressive intervention, Obama aides and advisers have set" $600B "over two years as 'a very low-end estimate,' one person familiar with the matter said. The final number is expected to be significantly higher, possibly between" $700B and $1T "over two years" (12/13).
Bottom Feeding Frenzy
Since Obama "laid out plans for the largest injection of federal spending into the economy since the New Deal, just about everyone has started angling for a piece of the action."
"With estimates of the package ... topping out at anywhere between" $500B and $1T, "ailing sectors such as home builders and sellers, airlines, railroads -- and, yes, the auto industry -- view the stimulus as a means to get healthy again. ... All of them, and many more, have deployed lobbyists to Capitol Hill in hope of benefiting from the spending spree." Watchdog Steve Ellis: "The ever-increasing cost of the yet-to-be-seen stimulus is like chum in the water for lobbyists circling to snap up some taxpayer cash for their clients" (Oliphant/Simon, "The Swamp," Chicago Tribune, 12/14).
Washington Post's Samuelson writes, "We here in Washington are anticipating a stampede of lobbyists, influence peddlers, media consultants, paid 'experts' and self-styled crusaders. Who brought us this onslaught of special pleaders? Why, it's" Obama, "the man who vowed to 'change' how Washington works and banish from the political arena all those deplorable 'special interests.' This is one Obama promise doomed to fail."
"The only way to eliminate lobbying and special interests is to eliminate government. The more powerful government becomes, the more lobbying there will be. So, paradoxically, Obama's ambitions for more expansive government will promote special pleading. You need only watch the response to the expected 'economic stimulus' plan ... to verify this eternal truth" (12/15).
No Room At The Inn
"To the list of people having trouble finding somewhere" in DC "to stay" in early Jan., "there can now be added one more entry: the Obama family." Bush aides "have turned down a request" from bama "to move from Chicago into Blair House, the official guest residence across Penn. Ave. from the WH, "in time for Obama's daughters to start school" in DC on 1/5.
"The Obamas were told that they could move into Blair House" on 1/15, "but no earlier, because it is booked.... So the Obamas are now looking for an alternative place to stay for a few weeks, though they presumably are not searching Craigslist for a sublet" (Cooper/Swarns, New York Times, 12/13).
More Postmortem
During an appearance on "This Week," McCain shared his thoughts on Obama.
McCain, asked if he briefed Obama on his recent trip overseas: "Yes, I talked to him on the phone, and of course, major topic was Afghanistan. President-elect Obama campaigned on the premise that we're going to have to address the issue in Afghanistan. The fact is, we need another surge-like strategy, and it's very different, so let's not say it's going to be exactly like Iraq, but I think the fact is that it's going to get worse before it gets better. And the American people need to know that."
ABC's Stephanopoulos: "But you and the president-elect are in agreement on Afghanistan now?"
McCain: "Yes, yes. Depending on how this new strategy evolves, et cetera."
McCain, asked if Obama is ready to be POTUS: "Look, it's not a matter of whether he's ready or -- he has been selected by the American people. We honor that decision."
McCain, asked if Obama's nat'l security team is a team he could have picked: "Sure, sure. Absolutely. ... Tells me that the president-elect is going to address national security issues with people who he thinks the American people can trust, and that he can place trust and confidence in. Again, I'm not playing Paul Revere, OK? But I am saying that there are enormous challenges throughout the world. ... So there's incredible national security challenges, which mandates -- doesn't argue for but mandates that we all work together as much as possible" (ABC, 12/14).
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