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"He will be greeted with great warmth, almost like he's David Hasselhoff."

— Ex-"Today" sr. prod. Noah Oppenheim, on Obama's trip to Germany, "Race for the WH," MSNBC, 7/16.

White House 2008

GENERAL ELECTION

1. Climate Change Is Real, For Now

The "flip-flop in popular opinion" that the domestic economy is more important than Iraq, coupled with changing events on the ground there, "could help" Barack Obama, "lowering the profile" of Iraq, which, "surprisingly, might have been helping" John McCain (Thomma, McClatchy, 7/17).

Commentary in the press and on TV focused on the changing circumstances in Iraq and their effects on the race:

• Newsweek's Wolffe, on Obama: "He's really got to try and take this back to first principles. Who was responsible for going into the war in the first place, invading Iraq? President Bush is supported very actively, and even before Bush got on board, by John McCain. That's where he's got to shift this. Not a debate about the surge, but about the war and the diversion from Afghanistan and al Qaeda" ("Countdown," MSNBC, 7/16).

• Washington Examiner's Sammon: "I think Barack Obama's antiwar position was more politically advantageous when the war was going badly, frankly. Now that it's going well, I think the issue tends to redound to McCain's benefit. You know, all campaigns are about the future. Barack Obama is trying to make this about the past -- we shouldn't have gotten in this war to begin with. McCain has successfully made this about what do we do about it now? He was for the surge. Obama was against the surge. ... When that is the argument, I think McCain wins."

• More Sammon: "I think that the entire premise of Obama's campaign is crumbling beneath his feet, and that is the antiwar premise" ("Special Report," FNC, 7/16).

• The Chicago Tribune editorializes, "Given Iraq's fragility, voters would do well to remember" the candidates' differences, "even as positive events there blur" them (7/17).

• VoteVets.org's Jon Soltz: "John McCain is a man who has caused this country to lose the war in Afghanistan by being obsessed with Iraq. His plan yesterday that he released to counter Senator Obama's plan, it was like amateur hour at the McCain campaign. You can't increase the size of the Army, stay in Iraq 100 years, and send three more combat brigades to Afghanistan without the draft or adopting Senator Obama's position, which is to get out" ("Hardball," MSNBC, 7/16).

• Troops Need You founder Eric Egland: "You want it to be driven by facts on the ground. Last year, security was pretty solid in Afghanistan. And McCain said, well, I would be up for more troops, but I don't think it's necessary. ... Security has worsened in Afghanistan. And now Senator McCain is saying, hey, we need more troops there. In contrast, Senator Obama seems to have these rigid policies that don't address the changing nature of the fight on the ground" ("Hardball," MSNBC, 7/16).

• Obama supporter/Sen. Evan Bayh (D-IN): "What I find to be remarkable is that Senator McCain ... says that even knowing of the intelligence failure, he would still do this all over again. That is hard to understand and in my own view is not the sort of judgment we would want in a commander in chief. Forward looking, backward looking, Barack Obama had it right then, he has it right now -- Afghanistan is the place to focus" ("Morning Joe," MSNBC, 7/17).

• Roll Call's Kondracke writes: "The economic news is so bad that it's no wonder" Obama is leading, "but he is giving political gifts" to McCain on Iraq. "Obama seems as locked in ideologically on Iraq as McCain is on economics," continuing "to dismiss any evidence of political progress" (7/17).

Freddie, Freddie, Who Can I Turn To?

AP's Babington writes: "The landscape has shifted" from Iraq to the economy. "New problems are cropping up almost daily, and voters will be demanding answers" (7/16).

Karl Rove writes in the Wall Street Journal, leading on the economy's "biggest problems" would allow McCain or Obama "to run as an outside-the-Beltway reformer." With the "crisis facing Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac," McCain and Obama "need to think like would-be presidents instead of senators." The candidate who proposes "serious reforms," like "jettisoning the implied federal financial backstop and shrinking Fannie and Freddie," will "likely gain on the issue of 'who's better to handle the economy'" -- which, though Obama currently leads, "is still a jump ball" (7/17)

But Washington Post's Weisman writes, "the risks of intervening in the firms' rescue are high, the rewards are scant, and the tentacles of the government-sponsored enterprises reach into both campaigns."

McCain mgr. Rick Davis was pres. of the Homeownership Alliance, McCain VP vetter Arthur Culvahouse Jr. lobbied for Fannie Mae and McCain aide Mark Buse lobbied for Freddie Mac. GOP Fannie and Freddie lobbyists also include "some of its most notable rogues," including many linked to the Jack Abramoff scandal.

And ex-Obama VP vetter James Johnson was a chief exec. of Fannie Mae, as was camp consultant Franklin Raines. Obama adviser Maria Eschaveste has lobbied for Freddie Mac, and ex-Commerce Sec./Obama supporter William Daley "was an in-house lobbyist" (7/17).

Vision Quest

Obama "sees an economy fraught with peril and would press immediately for a new economic stimulus package" and a "complex and aggressive set of proposals to cure the economy." McCain "sees a more mixed economic picture, with some sectors holding their own while others teeter. He has yet to push a second economic stimulus plan, preferring instead to see the full impact of the stimulus package already passed by Congress," and is focused on "a dire need for faster job growth" (Cummings/Javers, Politico, 7/17).

Walk A Block Or So In The Other Guy's Shoes

Meanwhile, McCain and Obama "switched places" 7/16, with McCain "talking about education in poor black communities" before the NAACP, and Obama "discussing national security and touting his credentials to be commander in chief" in IN (Curl, Washington Times, 7/17).

On McCain's NAACP appearance, the Washington Times editorializes, "there is no question which candidate will garner the larger share of the black vote in this election. But, having opposed school choice at every turn," both Obama and the NAACP "remain tragically out of touch with their own constituency in addressing this present-day 'civil rights' challenge" (7/17).

For more, see today's candidate stories.

I'm More Than Just A Secure Border

New York Times' Rohter writes, now that McCain and Obama have addressed Hispanic groups several times each, "it is possible to draw a picture of the strategy and tactics" that each "intends to employ to win the Hispanic vote, expected to be decisive in several states." Both "are taking care to avoid" treating Hispanic voters as if they care only about immigration, "emphasizing issues like education, health care and housing."

Obama, though, is "drawing on his background as a community organizer" and evoking "the theme of social justice," while McCain's message "seems directed at what he views as the innate social conservatism of Hispanics," appealing "to their deep religiosity, strong and extended family ties and patriotism," as well as "their propensity to create businesses of their own" (7/17).

Saved By The Bellwethers

Analyst Stuart Rothenberg writes in Roll Call, "if the race stays close until the end, a mere four or five states are likely to tell you whom the next" POTUS will be. "Right now, those states look to be" CO, VA, OH, NV and MI. "I'm not suggesting that these will be the five closest states," but "together these five states will tell a great deal" about whether Obama has added to the John Kerry and Al Gore states. Meanwhile, state polls there will "give you more information than the national numbers" (7/17).

Every Year, Around This Time, The Bloggers Emerge In A Majestic Display Of Quasi-Relevance

"Moving their energy and political activism from the virtual world to the blood, sweat and tears of the real world is the goal" of the more than 2K "progressive bloggers" converging on Austin, TX, today for their annual Netroots Nation convo, formerly dubbed YearlyKos.

Netroots Nation exec. dir. Gina Cooper: "There's the urgency of an election. You will see a bigger emphasis on what are the practical things that we do -- how do we hit the streets?" The event "will include training on how to recruit volunteers, looking and sounding good on TV, getting media exposure, crafting campaign messages, running a successful voter-registration campaign, and precinct organizing" (Brooks, Dallas Morning News, 7/16).

"Lawmakers and candidates" are also "paying the netroots attention" -- Speaker Nancy Pelosi will attend Netroots Nation, "along with more than a dozen" Dem cong. candidates (Alarkon, The Hill, 7/16).

And Daily Kos' Markos Moulitsas "will square off" with the centrist DLC's Harold Ford Jr. at a "Texas Shootout" panel discussion on "the party's future" (Bellantoni, Washington Times, 7/17).

Meanwhile, "the right-leaning crowd here is at a bit of a standstill," even though conservative bloggers are also meeting in Austin this weekend for their own convo, RightOnline. "Ostensibly led by a president they've grown weary trying to keep in line and a presidential nominee many have long distrusted trying to lead them in the future, there is a very real lack of certitude at RightOnline" (Sheffield, Washington Times, 7/17).

At Least Neither One Views It As A Series Of Tubes

Bloomberg's Stern writes, Obama and McCain "approach regulation in the information age from fundamentally different perspectives." Obama wants the gov't "to take an active role in wielding the Web as a weapon against poverty and rural isolation," while McCain "ses the Internet mainly as a business and trusts market forces to foster innovation for society's benefit." An Obama presidency "would bode well for Google Inc.," while a McCain WH "would be good fot AT&T Inc." (7/17).

You Call It Being Presumptuous, We Call It Being Prepared

Partnership for Public Service CEO Max Stier and News Corp. exec. VP Gary Ginsberg write an open letter to McCain and Obama in the Wall Street Journal, arguing, "what should be occupying a large portion of your time right now is how you will govern after the election when you have some 4,000 posts to fill." Candidates "treat transition planning like a championship trophy they're afraid to touch," but "to be ready on day one," candidates "need to start planning" to "prevent a leadership vacuum" once in office (7/17).

Wait, You Mean That's Not What We've Been Doing?!

Harvard's Kennedy School Center for Public Leadership's David Gergen and Andy Zelleke write in the Christian Science Monitor, "The candidates should themselves recognize their responsibility to provide voters an in-depth view of how they conceive of leadership, how they have led in the past, and how they intend to lead in the Oval Office. But nothing would contribute as much as a thoughtful, sustained 'job interview,' conducted by respected members of the news media" (7/17).

Editor-in-Chief: Amy Walter

Executive Editor: John Mercurio

Managing Editor: Quinn McCord

Senior Editors: Maura O'Brien, Tim Sahd, and Reid Wilson

TV Editor: Abby Livingston

Senior Writers: Holly Noe and Rachelle Douillard-Proulx

Staff Writers: Ian Faerstein, Sean J. Miller, Steven Shepard, and Felicia Sonmez

Online Producer: Carrie Dindino

Executive Assistant: Meredith Nettles

Associate Writers: Cyra Master, Michelle Price, Beth Sussman, and Kurtis Lee

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