The Hotline - Is It Worth It, Let Me Work It

Monday, Oct. 20, 2008

Is It Worth It, Let Me Work It

Dems' have got the fever for the flavor of 60. But just how close are they really to getting there? And, more important, do they really want all the responsibility that comes w/ a cloture-proof majority?

--The CW has long held that if Stevens loses his case, he loses re-election. Even so, Stevens' poll numbers have only improved since he went on trial. Back in Sept., the R2K/Kos poll showed Begich beating Stevens by 6 pts. Today, Stevens is down just 2 pts.

--In GA and MS the question is whether historic black turn-out will swamp GOP efforts to hold onto those seats. In GA, 35% of the 691K early votes already cast are from black voters. But, as we saw in '02, it's dangerous to underestimate the rural vote, which can fly under the radar for much of the campaign. (Just ask ex-GA pols Roy Barnes and Max Cleland).

--Meanwhile, in MS, will the fact that the ballot doesn't list candidates by party ID ultimately hurt Musgrove? After all, new voters flocking to the polls for Obama may have no idea which SEN candidate is which and may ultimately skip the race all together.

--In the end, Reid may be happier to come up short. That way, if the "you-know-what" hits the fan next year, Dems can at least try to spread some of the blame.